Stocks

[Adriano@10]

From the FT.

Well one of those two is a proper retail bank the other serves mainly businesses and HNI kind of expected....
But again looking at the situation most customers will receive back quite a bit more than those 250k as the assets of the bank are not worthless....
The main issue here is a timing issue....
Also lets not forget some 40 bio reportedly left on thursday which put them in this situation....

I would just hate a situation where HNI and VCs also get completely bailed out, would be a bad precedent.

 

[Adriano@10]

LOL @ VCs everywhere trying to make SVB systematic by inducing bank runs at other banks... Truly the scummiest grifters of em all.
The amount of watch for the bankruns on monday if we dont get bailed out takes from em is too damn high. The irony of them starting the bankrun when they realized SVB was in trouble seems totally lost on them. Or the fact that instead of withdrawing 42 bios making a few calls and getting 2 to 3 bios in liquidity for SVB would have solved the problem entirely...

Even if peter thiel would not have told his pofo companies to withdraw it would probably have been enough to avoid all this. But no these libertarian fucks ofcourse firts had the notion of every man by them selfes and then when they realized shit we have losses now they try to make the state pay for it.

I can only repeat from an asset perspective this shit is not systematic, but ofcourse if peter, jason and co succeed in stoking fear all over america then it will become systematic pretty fucken fast. My hope is still that most of middle america wont give a fuck about some VC bank that they never have heard of and it remains a mailnly cali problem.

 

[Pimpin]

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

www.ft.com

from the article

Meanwhile Rishi Sunak, prime minister, repeated the Bank of England’s assertion that the collapse of SVB’s UK bank did not present “a systemic contagion risk”.

then..

Hundreds of UK-based tech executives and investors have urged Downing Street to step in, warning that many companies faced an “existential threat” because they banked with the UK unit of SVB. Sunak says he wants to turn Britain into “the next Silicon Valley” and is said by government insiders to be determined to contain the fallout for the tech sector from the bank’s collapse. The Bank of England announced on Friday that Silicon Valley Bank UK was set to enter insolvency, following action taken by its parent company in the US, adding that it had a limited presence in the UK and did not perform functions critical to the financial system.

also naturally, there are stablecoins that got fucked..

also

this little nugget

On Saturday, more than 200 start-up founders and leaders signed an open letter to Hunt, warning that “the majority of us as tech founders are running numbers to see if we are potentially technically insolvent”. By Sunday the number had risen to more than 300, with signatories saying they employed more than 15,000 people and had raised venture funding totalling £5.5bn.

I mean how did these fucking idiots, shit on dinosaurs for their practices, only for them to go and put all their fucking money in a shitty "tech bank" lmao


I am sorry but this looks like its spreading, UK and China SVB already causing problems, monday will not be fun..

 

[Pimpin]

my favorite..

US exchange Coinbase said it was temporarily pausing conversions between USDC and the US dollar. Rival exchange Binance also said it would pause automatic conversions of USDC to BUSD, a stablecoin that carries the Binance branding. Circle called for an urgent federal rescue plan for SVB.

fucking cryptobros man

 

[Adriano@10]

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

www.ft.com

from the article


then..



also naturally, there are stablecoins that got fucked..

also

this little nugget




I mean how did these fucking idiots, shit on dinosaurs for their practices, only for them to go and put all their fucking money in a shitty "tech bank" lmao


I am sorry but this looks like its spreading, UK and China SVB already causing problems, monday will not be fun..

To be fair it s the classic sillicon valley play book laugh at dinosaurs and regulators then when shit hits the fan they all come crying...
Again i can only repeat how the fuck bailing out a bad bank will help anybody is beyond me, even more so a Sillicon valley bad bank...
These fucken VCs have been throwing money at their pofo companies at valuations with huge cash burns let the VCs worry about providing bridge liquidity...
Also how many would actually have to close within the next week if they only get the 250k on monday? I doubt it would be too many....
Ofcourse there is fear and ofcourse theres gonna be a fallout but not sure it s to the degree that people wanna believe...
Again i dont see how the state(Fdic) cannot make a liquidity pool specially for companies where they get access to lets say 50 to 75% of their deposits with SVB... This would mean they all should have ample liquidity to make it through the next 3 months unless they were mismanaged from the get go. Then once this is done you work out how much of the rest of the deposits you can recover and you do this over the next ay 6 months. Yes companies will lose some of their funding but it wont force them to close up shop. The state wont have to wast to much tax payer money and VCs will have to take a couple of courses in risk mgm moving forward.

I just really dont see the big fucken problem if you can avoid a bank run at other banks this is not such a big problem. Yes stocks will suffer but fuck some of the suggestions from bail out to stop raising rates are just terrible ideas imho I mean morale hazard much?

Also yellen came out and said there wont be a bailout... As she explained and i m with her on this we did the new banking regulation after 08 exactly for this so that we dont have to bail em out if they are grossly mismanaged. Btw funny how trumps partial reversal of dodd frank only made this shit possible... Which btw SVB was lobbying heavily for.

Again there will be spread and stocks will suffer but if done right this does not amount to a situation where a bailout or a shift in fed policy is necessary. Yes it will be ugly but unless the VC bros manage to orchestrate a nation wider bank run this can and will be handled with not much harm to the general economy.

I just really hope that the VC bros have to take part of the losses, i d hate for them to make fun of regulations, then have most of their clients put all their money with a bank with no proper risk mgm, then cause the fucken bankrun at SVB then go on to stoke fear about nation wide bank runs and then get bailed out from the mess they created without loosing a cent. That shit would piss me off beyond believe.

Also like bill akmann out here lobying for a bailout while insisting 98% of the funds can be recovered. then why the fuck would they need a bailout... Just provide a liquidity facility to breach gap from now till recovery.

Again not saying this aint gonna be ugly and markets aint gonna suffer but this shit aint systematic unless other bank runs happen and i s nothing compared to the GFC.

Like as a primer when the hypo real estate bank went bust in germany 15 years ago merkel came out with a spoken guarantee that all savings would be save in order to stop a bank run. Which is exactly what happened. And solved a very similar crisis. Note there never was a guarantee.... It was just merkel and here ministers saying this in front of a camera which btw was enough to prevent a fucken bank run.


Edit: totally forgot: https://www.svbsecurities.com/team/joseph-gentile/
cant make this shit up dude was CFO at lehman before his gig at SVB

 

[Pimpin]

I am reading the stablecoin bros how if there are only 3 billions missing at xyz stablecoin.. the rest is still there.. so only 5 % missing, tehrefore the price should be 0.95$ per dollar...

who will tell them that none of this shit is audited and no one knows how much there is.. and no one knwos in what they are.. how much money is lost.. and how even if there is a certain % missing.. shit can go south.. see FTX..


Bill Ackman has lost all respect from my side.. he had a few good bets but yeah he can fuck off, first ftx now this.

I think this is spreading unfortunately, I am hearing not so good things from start ups.. that whole ecosystem has been fucked..

 

[Pimpin]

Signature bank folding too

 

[brehme1989]

Signature bank folding too

It's a shadow crypto ban by the NY regulators.

 

[Pimpin]

It's a shadow crypto ban by the NY regulators.

I mean why risk amplifying the SVB meltdown..

also if aall depositors get bailed, then what's the point of it all? If you can funnel in your money at a high %, then some cokehead gambles it away and fed bails u out

 

[brehme1989]

SVB branch of UK was bought by HSBC.

 

[Adriano@10]

I mean why risk amplifying the SVB meltdown..

also if aall depositors get bailed, then what's the point of it all? If you can funnel in your money at a high %, then some cokehead gambles it away and fed bails u out

Signature was fucked before the whole svb situation and would have gone bust any ways.....
Also full bail out for depositors is comming... I dont have a problem with that as 90% of deposits will be recovered anyways.... regulators insisting that tax payer wont pay shit makes me think their quite confident they can recover 100%.
One might also argue that this will calm markets and make recovery more easy.
Only positive thing from this is is that equity is wiped out. But we have to change some things regulations should be reeinstated...
Cfo and ceo should be forced to give back the money from their stock sales on fucken tuesday.
I guess the hope here is that going forward equity holders of banks wont accept risks like this.
I also want to congratulate VCs who caused this but then screamed wolf loud enough so that they got made whole...
Side note i never wanna here any of these fucks talk about their libertarian bs principles ever again.
Also can we introduce some.kind of rule that starting/organising a bank run is fucken illigal? Like i cannot scream fire in a full cinema with no consequences. Why the fuck can VC s cause a bank run and then get bailed out with 0 consequences?

EDit: new btfd will let banks pledge their bonds and mbs for cash up to one year so they can meet liquidity needs....

 

[Pimpin]

Signature was fucked before the whole svb situation and would have gone bust any ways.....
Also full bail out for depositors is comming... I dont have a problem with that as 90% of deposits will be recovered anyways.... regulators insisting that tax payer wont pay shit makes me think their quite confident they can recover 100%.
One might also argue that this will calm markets and make recovery more easy.
Only positive thing from this is is that equity is wiped out. But we have to change some things regulations should be reeinstated...
Cfo and ceo should be forced to give back the money from their stock sales on fucken tuesday.
I guess the hope here is that going forward equity holders of banks wont accept risks like this.
I also want to congratulate VCs who caused this but then screamed wolf loud enough so that they got made whole...
Side note i never wanna here any of these fucks talk about their libertarian bs principles ever again.
Also can we introduce some.kind of rule that starting/organising a bank run is fucken illigal? Like i cannot scream fire in a full cinema with no consequences. Why the fuck can VC s cause a bank run and then get bailed out with 0 consequences?

EDit: new btfd will let banks pledge their bonds and mbs for cash up to one year so they can meet liquidity needs....

why would you not have a problem with full bail out of depositors? These guys knew that the insurance would be up to 250k.

Do you really think SVB is the only bank sitting on long term bond losses?

can fed really bail them out with inflation at these levels?

 

[Pimpin]

First republic folding too it seems down 70% pr3 market

 

[Adriano@10]

why would you not have a problem with full bail out of depositors? These guys knew that the insurance would be up to 250k.

Do you really think SVB is the only bank sitting on long term bond losses?

can fed really bail them out with inflation at these levels?

Yes no problem..... look at svb s asset gonna easily recover 90% of deposita probably a lot more

Also no they all sit on longterm bond losses but most have not mismatched their bond pofo also their new repo facility solves this. Again the only risk from.this is idotic depositots pulling their deposits which is a risk that you always have in banking

Depositors knew the risk but it s kind of obvious that the fed cant let 1000s of start ups fail at once, because of poor risk mgm by one bank... even more so if 90% percent of deposits are still backed and it really is only a timing concern....
Fed can baile.em out easily but yes inflation and having to keep on raising is a probl but nothing out of this world....
Especially if now all deposits within us banks have a implicit state guarantee...
Logicakly the ones who should be worried are the equity holders, their the ones who will get wiped and wont see a penny untill depositors are made whole..
If your an institutional holder of bank equity your gonna make sure risk is properly managed and you re probably gonna step in with a bridge loan if you find your selfe in a svb situation before you get wiped out..

the thing that infuriates me is that this was entirely created by VCs could have been easily avoided and now it s made up to be some systematic bank risk gtfoh......
I really hope these idiots were also sitting on some.of the equity.

 

[Pimpin]

putting all your money in a shitty start up bank seems rather poor risk management from start ups no?

 

[Pimpin]

now why is Schwab getting hit this hard?

 

[Adriano@10]

putting all your money in a shitty start up bank seems rather poor risk management from start ups no?

Agreed.... but again the fear is a bank run by companies who have more than 250k in cash.... by guarajteeong the startups deposit the fed takes away the incentive of these smes to pull their cash...

On schwab and any other bank this is just fear afain absemt of a bankrun all these banks are good with the new repo facility of the fed if they take havy write downs on htm bonds they can avoid the losses by going through the btfd....

As i said before stocks will suffer but this is just fear atm.... absent if maasive bank runs nothing will happen...

 

[Adriano@10]

First of sorrry for the horrendous spelling most post written on the fly on my phone. .
Also see what just fucken happened 50bps price hike not priced in any more and only 2 25bps hikes....
If we decided the 5%+ inflation is okay cause otherwise fucken sbv customers would have had to take a 10% haircut we are truly fucked...
Look at all the crypto and shitcos flying again fucken pathetic and the assholes who created the problem are profiting once again.
How much i hope markets are wrong on this..
Also only bank i see with real problems atm is first republic as they will baerly be able to tap the new liquidity instrument as i understand it.

this whole situation is fucken pathetic from the incompetence of svb, the sheer stupidity and ignorance of VCs and the generall lack pf understanding how banking works by the general public an politicians...

Its truly astonishing and we are moving closer and closer to a world where corporations dont need to care about rsik cause it will all be taken care of by the state.

Truly pathetic, also who are the assholed still pulling money from small banks even after they got an implicit state guarantee?

 

[ADRossi]

Don't let SVB's failure distract you from the fact that this is the fault of horrible fiscal policy.

 

[Adriano@10]

Don't let SVB's failure distract you from the fact that this is the fault of horrible fiscal policy.

Lol sorry bro this is a horrible take.....
No risk management mismatching of durations is a fucken joke....
bank mgm and vcs pulling 42 bio in a day is the obly reson this happened.
Maybe reversing part of the dodd frank is also a problem but fucke svb lobbied for that...
If it was a fiscal policy failure why dont we see these banks fall like flies?