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Helenio Herrera

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On a serious note, I'd refrain from buying until after 2023 Q2
 
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Adriano@10

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ay man, StoneCo will rise again!
 
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Adriano@10

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Bill Ackman out here trying his best to destroy the last bit of reputation he has....
He s advocating for a SVB bail out.... Seriously? Just cause these idiots could not manage their bond pofo properly in a time where fucken raises were obvious way ahead of time..
Also thy re mosty banking VCs and their startups and as always i say fuckem. Especially the VCs for once let em deal with the shitty risks they entered.
Also side not I highly doubt this will spread much beyond crypto/VCs/Startups.
Even if both SI and SVB go bust.
Will it accelerate a recession? Probably will it make a crisis out of a recession I do not think so.
We have bigger issues....
 
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.. i dont like the red in banks man.. did the fed break something?
 
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Adriano@10

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.. i dont like the red in banks man.. did the fed break something?
dont think we re at the point where the fed broke something just yet....
Main cause of concern in the banks is the ripple effect that might happen with SVB CS and silvergate to a lesser effect....
I cant really judge the extent SVB will have but i think it s a bit overblown atm as mostly VCs and startups will be affected..
On CS well i think the worries are overblown partially cause the letter by the SEC was and the subsequent dely of the results was regarding an old fin statement, more importantly CS still is tbtf in switzerland and the SNB and the state will step in to bail em out in the worst case, yes international business might be shut down but i still think some other bank will just buy that business for pennies on the $.


Also SVB made rookie mistakes mismatching maturities...
And i find it a bit ironic to blame the fed now when SVB and the VCs who were just throwing money around in low interest regime and probably profited the most from feds loose policy are now bitching.
 
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this guy seems to agree with you..

but you know with banks, its not the fundamental issue, its the trust in them that matters outflows to high yied gov bonds can cause some pain
 
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Adriano@10

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this guy seems to agree with you..

but you know with banks, its not the fundamental issue, its the trust in them that matters outflows to high yied gov bonds can cause some pain
Yeah i m not saying trust is nt an issue all i m saying is since 09 most big banks have rather robust balance sheets and I cannot judge the spillover to the general sector just yet I doubtit will be big for the big boys. ALso in both of these cases the cause was incompetence in CS a lack of risk mgm and in SVB a missmatch of maturities....
Not like in 08 when all the banks had the same toxic securities on their BS.
 
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brehme1989

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Situation with SVB sounds familiar
 
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Yeah i m not saying trust is nt an issue all i m saying is since 09 most big banks have rather robust balance sheets and I cannot judge the spillover to the general sector just yet I doubtit will be big for the big boys. ALso in both of these cases the cause was incompetence in CS a lack of risk mgm and in SVB a missmatch of maturities....
Not like in 08 when all the banks had the same toxic securities on their BS.

ok so they have 200 USDbn under management, how much of those are federally insured? How much the spillover be? will other banks follow with people looking afte rtheir money?

where does it stop?
Situation with SVB sounds familiar
elaborate
 
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Adriano@10

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ok so they have 200 USDbn under management, how much of those are federally insured? How much the spillover be? will other banks follow with people looking afte rtheir money?

where does it stop?
I d guess not to much is federally insured.... I have no idea how many clients they have but they only serve businesses mostly vcs and startups and hnwi minimum deposit was 1 mio and in the us up to 100k are federally insured.

But again if the rules and regs work as they were designed it should stop here. Although sbny is probably also in some shit...

Remains to be seen how much of those 200 bio were left when they were shut down. Also they were trying to raise 2 bio and had another 500 mio secured contingent on them getting the 2 bio which they though would cover for them at least on the short term.
So if they fell short by 2 to 3bio and those losses are mostly carried by VCs and HNWI i just dont see how it gets the big boys in trouble.

Also again i have not taken a look at their holdings or clients holdings with svb so i might be talking out of my ass
I do think the fact that the Californian department of financial protection and the FDIC steped in today faster than i and i guess most others thought would suggest they have it under control and can handle it.
WOuld have been way easier if they feared widespread contagion to just bail em out. By shutting em down they take this option off the table
 
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ADRossi

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SVB situation is fucking nuts.
 
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Adriano@10

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So i looked into this a bit more first and foremost the amount of horrendous takes especially on twitter is too damn high...
This is and was not the feds mistake this is entirely on MGM although some VCs also reacted like idiots and made it all worse. Yes it s a problem for banks especially if their HTM assets are affected which they largely are not allowed to hedge.

I also have to make some corrections FDIC insurance is up to 250k and not 100k also i totally forgot that Trump rolled back part of the dodd Frank act so i m not 100% sure how robust regulation still is.

Still think the spillover effect will be minimal since this was not caused by toxic assets but by mgm missmanagement I think the main cause of concern is a loss of trust in the system and further bank runs which obviously would be a huge problem... People keep on bringing up why have cash at a bank when you can go into treasuries at 4-5%? Thats a fair point but Banks could and should mitigate that effect by passing on some of that sweet sweet NII i mean depositors still pretty much get 0% while the banks make a lo more in current environment. And we ve seen that reflected in record NII for a couple of banks the last Qs.
Also fuckers adjusted mortgage prices immediately well i d guess it s time to adjust also for savings accounts.

Also this whole thing once again just showes how fucken uneducated some of those VCs are when it comes to finance.. A how the fuck did these idiots all bank with only one partner? Secondly why the fuck did they think it s smart to tell all their pofo companies to pull all their money out as fast as possible on thursday morning... WTF did they think would happen? Thiel does not send out that message SBV is still operational today and has probably already raised those 2.5 bio to continue operations.

Moving on to the fallout I sadly think the FDIC and regulators will be overly generous and probably make almost everybody whole, first of all its important that they act fast which seemingly is the case. My best guess would be that they present a solution on Monday cause again they dont want people to go out and withdraw from other banks. So my guess would be on monday the insured money will be available to the depositors, just to calm down markets.
As i said before i would no give a fuck about HNI and VCs and would probably just tell em your fucken problem, not sure the FDIC is with me on this though.
Also gonna be interesting to se how they handle companies biggest two who have significant money with SBV are ROKU and Roblox...

Now again since most of the problem is in their HTM pofo I could see the state stepping in taking over that pofo and making almost everybody whole while the FDIC or what ever agency does it just sits on this HTM bonds till Maturity, the losses of such a move would be minimal. That being said i do hope that HNI and VCs have to take a haircut. Anyways i guess and hope will know by monday.


On the positive side i found a bank with worse risk mgm than Credit suisse kind of impressive.
Edit: Almost forgot it s lovely to see all those libertarian VC assholes now scream for a bailout.... fuckers always want to have it both ways
 
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At the end of 2022, SVB estimated that almost 96 per cent of its $173.1bn in deposits exceeded or were not covered by FDIC insurance. By comparison, Bank of America has estimated that around 38 per cent of its $1.9tn in deposits were not covered by FDIC insurance.

From the FT.
 
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Adriano@10

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From the FT.
Well one of those two is a proper retail bank the other serves mainly businesses and HNI kind of expected....
But again looking at the situation most customers will receive back quite a bit more than those 250k as the assets of the bank are not worthless....
The main issue here is a timing issue....
Also lets not forget some 40 bio reportedly left on thursday which put them in this situation....

I would just hate a situation where HNI and VCs also get completely bailed out, would be a bad precedent.
 
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