Stocks

[brehme1989]

I love bonds again. Fuck stocks.

I'll notify you on my mood next week though, might change

 

[Adriano@10]

AAPL/GOOGL/AMAZN all with miss guidance/expectations...

 

[brehme1989]

One stock I'm happy with lately is Affirm. No idea how I manage it with this company. I always end up on the winning side. Considering selling now as my current position was bought below $10. Ridiculous price.

This is a $40 stock, in this environment, but I'm not going to wait till it doubles (or more). Odds say it will drop back to $12 before it goes to $32.


And obviously I'm like 35% up YTD but that doesn't mean shit when I look at the overall picture since January 2022 (or November 2021) and I don't even wanna imagine what 2023 is going to show us until the end of the summer.

 

[Adriano@10]

One stock I'm happy with lately is Affirm. No idea how I manage it with this company. I always end up on the winning side. Considering selling now as my current position was bought below $10. Ridiculous price.

This is a $40 stock, in this environment, but I'm not going to wait till it doubles (or more). Odds say it will drop back to $12 before it goes to $32.


And obviously I'm like 35% up YTD but that doesn't mean shit when I look at the overall picture since January 2022 (or November 2021) and I don't even wanna imagine what 2023 is going to show us until the end of the summer.

I dont se how affirm is a 40$ stock honestly especially not in this environment I d stay away from PNPLs....

In other news Ryan Cohen aka the man with no shame bought an activist stake in nordstrom trying to reorganize the board and oust the CEO... Meanwhile the last big retailer he took a stake in as an activist investor is expected to file for BK any day now that is of course after ryan made a cool 60-70 mio with his fucken pump.

Fucken joke even bigger joke is that the stock jumped 5% (lol fucking 30% in pre market) on the announcement looks like Cohen still has a couple of loyal GME apes with him that follow hos every move.

 

[Pimpin]

Anyone seeing the eu ppi? Lmao

Fucking clowns

 

[Pimpin]

Job report in USA lmao

GOOD LUCK WITH THE PIVOT

 

[Adriano@10]

Job report in USA lmao

GOOD LUCK WITH THE PIVOT

Yeah but holy shit 517k vs 187k expected.....
Also futures nose dived....
Would be funny if yesterday was the peak

Its days like today when i wonder why i bother with econ forecasts

 

[Adriano@10]

LOL @TTWO being up 7% after a terrible Q and a down guide....
I m assuming cause the CEO said the GTA6 leak is not material to them (DUHHH)

 

[Pimpin]

ok so don't call me crackhead just yet, but I actually think Uber can do well in high interest environment. Think of it this way:

Uber shitco competes with other subsidised shitco. Basically softbank funds taxi company A, to compete against its own Taxi Company B. Cheap credit made it possible for shitcos to throw money at customers to gain them. Insert rising interest rates. Shitco B can't raise capital anymore, so people will go with Shitco A aka Uber, who they know alot more..

last quarter could offer a glimpse into the future..

I am a fucking KING, now if only ii had followed my own advise

 

[Harpsabu]

LOL @TTWO being up 7% after a terrible Q and a down guide....
I m assuming cause the CEO said the GTA6 leak is not material to them (DUHHH)

There were reports earlier in the week that the gta 6 announce is imminent and the game could be released as soon as this year. (think it's bullshit but people could have got sucked in?)

Also seen some shite about how AI will never be able to create as good a GTA as take two (think their CEO said it, not sure who was asking or what impact that would have but...)

 

[Adriano@10]

I am a fucking KING, now if only ii had followed my own advise

Yeah another good call, but have you looked at the numbers yet? 750+ mios of their NI come from unrealized gains on investments....
SO hey would have made a loss if it was not for these Investments.... No idea what they are as i just glanzed at the headlines..But doing some calcs of that it seems the whole earnings beat comes from those 750+ mios of non realized gains. Again take this with a grain of salt as i did not bother to check what those investments are.

None the less guidance is strong and ride hailing seems to make a comeback...
Still a way overpriced and glorified Taxi company in my opinion.

There were reports earlier in the week that the gta 6 announce is imminent and the game could be released as soon as this year. (think it's bullshit but people could have got sucked in?)

Also seen some shite about how AI will never be able to create as good a GTA as take two (think their CEO said it, not sure who was asking or what impact that would have but...)

Yeah i guess most people expected TTWO to just announce it after the leak......And to be fair the CEOs remarks make it look like early next year is a realistic expectation maybe even late 23....

On the AI i think he s spot on.... I honestly think that this whole Chatgpt hype is a bit to much...Like yes it s fucken good but it also still makes horrible mistakes, even in simple problems or simple questions.....I guess it really depends on how you define AI makes the game..... I think we re not that far away from AI being able to write some of the trivial and maybe repeating code in games. But for AI to just create the whole game and make it feel like something new i think we re still far far far away from that.

Also i m a bit shocked that people are shocked that chatgpt would pass certain exams like duh... of course it would when it has access to most information on the internet.

 

[Adriano@10]

Beautiful how the market slowly realizes there wont be a major pivot and fed might need to go back to 0.5 raises...
Glad idiotic macro experts called for the bottom and whiplashed retail into stocks..... Btw those same idiots are very quiet this week. The buy the dip mantra still seems to work though... Also shit cos are still rallying even after they posted shitty numbers less shitty then expected but still shitty... DASH??? WTF? I mean ceo basically admitted in the call that their business does not scale up 5% in pre market..

In tesla news the NHTSA finally acted and forced Tesla to recall FSD, of course Felon is out with his usual shananigans saying it aint a recall if it s just an ota update.... My response to this would be that he s on version 11.xx so there have been a tonn of updates over the last 6 years and none of them could fix the issues why should they now be capable to do so just cause the nhtsa forced them? Anyways since it seems like the nhtsa did not force Tesla to disable FSD till they fixed it it s hard to tell how material this will end up being. As thesla is gonna claim they fixed it and it will then probably take the nhtsa another 2 years to find that tesla did fuck all. That being said the NHTSA also clearly stated that their investigation into tesla and FSD is far from over and this is/was just a first step.
I m just glad some watchdog is trying to do something at this point.

In Crypto news the sector still has a huge Banking problem after the latest SEC crackdown and SI got exposed. From afar it looks a lot like binance is hangin on the ropes. Yes yes there was a really but guess who restarted their printers just before the rally suprise suprise a shit ton of Tethers got minted to enable this rally. Another attempt to suck in more retail for one last hurray.

Also some swiss bank apparently helped dokwon get 10k BTC out of terra labs before the collapse... I would be shocked if the bank ends up not being credit suisse

 

[Harpsabu]

Yeah another good call, but have you looked at the numbers yet? 750+ mios of their NI come from unrealized gains on investments....
SO hey would have made a loss if it was not for these Investments.... No idea what they are as i just glanzed at the headlines..But doing some calcs of that it seems the whole earnings beat comes from those 750+ mios of non realized gains. Again take this with a grain of salt as i did not bother to check what those investments are.

None the less guidance is strong and ride hailing seems to make a comeback...
Still a way overpriced and glorified Taxi company in my opinion.

Yeah i guess most people expected TTWO to just announce it after the leak......And to be fair the CEOs remarks make it look like early next year is a realistic expectation maybe even late 23....

On the AI i think he s spot on.... I honestly think that this whole Chatgpt hype is a bit to much...Like yes it s fucken good but it also still makes horrible mistakes, even in simple problems or simple questions.....I guess it really depends on how you define AI makes the game..... I think we re not that far away from AI being able to write some of the trivial and maybe repeating code in games. But for AI to just create the whole game and make it feel like something new i think we re still far far far away from that.

Also i m a bit shocked that people are shocked that chatgpt would pass certain exams like duh... of course it would when it has access to most information on the internet.

Just a different point on AI. I don't know what's going to happen to data science. Once there's an ability to plug AI into your database, why would you need a data scientist or a company that provides that service? I don't know what impact this will have on stocks in the future, maybe the wrong place for it. Just interesting / concerning.

 

[Adriano@10]

Just a different point on AI. I don't know what's going to happen to data science. Once there's an ability to plug AI into your database, why would you need a data scientist or a company that provides that service? I don't know what impact this will have on stocks in the future, maybe the wrong place for it. Just interesting / concerning.

Well as of now AI cannot distinguish between correct and BS data... It will just pick from the data base it is given.
Hence why chatgpt still makes some terrible rookie mistakes...
Like as of now you d have to be 100% certain that the data base you are using does not contain any wrong data..
Like especially in the data ingestion and data processing i d argue that humans will still be needed as quality of information cannot be determined by AI..
Further more the data Interpretation/analysis has ben done by "AI" for some time now at the very least partially.
What AI is already pretty strong at and what most people think of when hereing data science is analysing a set of data or a data base...
I m not sure to what degree AI can help with the data storing and processing.
But at least in the data ingestion phase we re still quite a bit away from AI collecting reliable data by itselfe and comming up with usefull analytics.

My guess would be that these companies are still gonna be around maybe just more specialized and one could argue that different AI's could be built for different analysis so that company X could spcialised in analysis X due to their AI while company Y has a better AI to analyze Y. Might also be that they build proprietary data bases so that one company just has better more robust/ less noisy data than another one and thats why you d use their services.

Again i m not an IT guy so this could all be BS but this is how i think it s most likely to play out at least in the short term(10 years) also no idea what stocks would or should profit from this.
But yeah it s gonna be very interesting to see how it plays out. I do think the concerns are a bit overblown atm as chatgpt imho is still far far away from causing any real harm as long as you dot just trust it blindly.

 

[Javier'sSon]

With all of this fuckin red I have a question, do racist people have a diverse portfolio?

 

[Stefan]

Do you guys focus on individual stocks or etf's?

 

[brehme1989]

Do you guys focus on individual stocks or etf's?

That's not a very prudent question to ask unless it's just out of curiosity. Not saying you asked a bad thing but someone who's reading may be affected by a black/white response here.

ETFs are generally more conservative whereas stocks are more prone to sudden price moves, so that's a risk question.

You can do both of course. Say I believe tech firms will do great, I get an ETF that focused on that. Then I can also double down by getting stocks of a couple of market leaders.

There are also ETFs that aren't performing well because the sector is down but one of the stocks, whether its weight in the ETF is significant or not, does much better.


Focusing on stocks requires a strong background check usually. Focusing on ETFs can be based on hunch on the other hand. You can lose a lot of money with both.
You ca win a lot of money with some stocks, maybe not so much with ETFs. But since you cannot always pick winners, ETFs are safer.

What I do is pile money up on a monthly basis on some ETFs I like and then keep my core investments (now to be honest I have more in bonds) in individual stocks. And I'm kinda stuck with some bad ones now that I can afford to wait a recovery for.

There's no right or wrong.

 

[Adriano@10]

Do you guys focus on individual stocks or etf's?

Stocks, but to be fair i do this for a living so i would feel like a crook if i just invested my clients money into ETFs they can do this them selfes....
Pretty much what brehme said with the caveat that imho retail should mostly stick to ETFs... Like in terms portfolio construction and Risk most retail portfolios that i came across are a shit show and way to heavily exposed in one sector one stock.
Also if you cannot interpret a Cashflow statement a balance sheet/ P&L statement you really have no business in owning individual stocks.....

Yes there are some retail traders that won big by doing exactly this but these are the exceptions most of retail loses when picking stocks... Look at APE/AMC/GME/BBBY yes a few in retail made a shit ton but 99% of the idiots who piled in lost a whole lot of money.

Bottom line my advice to retail is always stick to etfs, realistically speaking thats the only way for retail to get a decent diversification. Now you can still pick sector etfs and stuff like that just dont pick levered ones cause then wtf is the point? Basically i would always advice retail to go big on what ever their fave big index is wether thats the DAX the SP 500 the SMI and so on depends a lot on location of the investor also. Then you can add some sector etfs or etfs of different Countries and then you can add some individual stocks. I d usually advise to not go over 30% sector etfs and 10%individual stocks for retail portfolios. That are not managed by a proffesional...

In the end it all comes down to your risk appetite the problem here is that again retail has a extremly hard time to quantify or asses the risk they are taking in their pofo cause of to the moon narratives and so on.

 

[Adriano@10]

Gonna add some more context imho most retailers want to build wealth over time with their investments. And it s no about getting rich quick (otherwise your in the wrong lane any ways) Key to building wealth over a long time horizon is to avoid huge losses while getting steady returns. Your typical etf that does not track some super risky asset will not suffer drawdowns that are as big as your single stock investments....
Problem here is if your down 50% on a investment you need to make a 100% return on that just to break even...
Best instrument to slowly compound over years while avoiding huge drawdowns are etfs...

 

[Javier'sSon]

Also if you cannot interpret a Cashflow statement a balance sheet/ P&L statement you really have no business in owning individual stocks.....

Jokes on you I own like 20 stocks.