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Started a position on PAGs and averaged down on STNE. I just don't understand how this tech went from 10 times sales to sub 10 times earnings :lol:
 
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Adriano@10

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Just here to take another victory round on CVNA turd is down -34% atm as markets finally realize that cash will probably run out in jan/feb.....
Absolutely frustrating short but it really paid of over the last 12 months after going horribly wrong when i started my position and this turd doubled up on me.

Another lesson why shorting is hard but also a reminder that fundamentals will eventually matter.

Side note: SQ starts to look like a great short especially afterpay looks terrible and they ll lose a shit ton of money in a recession.
Meanwhile good guy and business hippie jack dorsey has no problem charging his customers up to 35.9% APR
Ahh the financial revolution they started that finally helps the poor.
 
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If you guys can recall, I have a friend who is incredibly, lunatically bullish on MRNA...

 

Adriano@10

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How many retarded the fed s gonna pivot rallies do we still have to go through before these people learn? The fed s not gonna pivot until inflation is under 5% or Intrest rates are higher then inflation. Especially not as long as we see good job numbers and spending numbers that are not that bad.
I mean for fucks sake did investors really think the fed would pivot when CPI came in lower than expected but at freaking 7.1%?
Have they forgotten that the yearly target is 2%?

Also increasing my tesla short the public is finally realizing what a huge fucking idiot their technoking is.
 
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How many retarded the fed s gonna pivot rallies do we still have to go through before these people learn? The fed s not gonna pivot until inflation is under 5% or Intrest rates are higher then inflation. Especially not as long as we see good job numbers and spending numbers that are not that bad.
I mean for fucks sake did investors really think the fed would pivot when CPI came in lower than expected but at freaking 7.1%?
Have they forgotten that the yearly target is 2%?

Also increasing my tesla short the public is finally realizing what a huge fucking idiot their technoking is.
there was a good article on FT today how core inflation is actually going upwards still. I must say i've been wrong on quite a few things, peak inflation being one of them.

I think 10 years of ultra efficient, cross border trade, fused with the psychological effect that inflation would never go upwards (see japan), I thought we would be locked in this environment forever, boy was I wrong.
 
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Adriano@10

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there was a good article on FT today how core inflation is actually going upwards still. I must say i've been wrong on quite a few things, peak inflation being one of them.

I think 10 years of ultra efficient, cross border trade, fused with the psychological effect that inflation would never go upwards (see japan), I thought we would be locked in this environment forever, boy was I wrong.
Seemes to have been the mantra of many....
I just really dont see why the fed or any cb should/would pivot when inflation is above 5%....
Even the boj is now slightly pivoting by increasing the band of its yieldcurve goal...

Also if you were not wrong on a couple of things in investing this year chances are you did not take too many guesses.... markets have been brutal...
Why i m only left with big conviction plays and shorts

Side noteevery day that passes my conviction that i m not short enough tesla grows
 
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Adriano@10

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If anybody wants to get dumber by watching a video i found this gem:
Fucken musk cathy and business hippie jack dorsey go on about BTC...
The times we re living in.
 

brehme1989

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Hahahaha
 
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told my gf that with current investments and stuff, we could retire by 50 easily, and she scolded me and said that 7% yearly return is unrealistic, because, and i quote

"we are up only %2 this year".

I showed her the S&500 chart, and Nasdaq, she was like "ooooohhhh".
 

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Adam Aron
@CEOAdam


Also, a company as distinguished as AMC shouldn’t let Wall Streeters wishing us harm drive us to being a “penny stock.” So in the shareholder vote, you also can consider a 1:10 reverse stock split. Simple arithmetic, if approved, the share count goes down so share price goes up
I had to re-read this 3 times.. am i tripping? Surely a CEO can't expect ppl to be this dumb
 

K.I.

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Reverse Splits usually result in a lot of pumps so these kind of statements play into that, throw it out there to the masses and internet so people buy when the float is smaller after the split.
 
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Adriano@10

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I had to re-read this 3 times.. am i tripping? Surely a CEO can't expect ppl to be this dumb
AA is a shameless man he knows that only way amc survives is if he keeps on milking the apes, also of course he him selfe and his sons made quite a profit off of the apes too.....
Also sadly some of the apes are dumb enough... they fell for the gold mine takeover they fell for the fucken popcorn business and so on....
Also this is one of these examples where AA is not commiting fraud but he clearly leeds retail to the slaughterhouse imo in times of social media the SEC should probably step in......


In other news brokers are stopping margin day trades on tesla shares, the camels back finally broke. Thanks to felon and CVNA i m gonna end up having a quite good year.... Also as always i m still not short enough that fucken ponzi. Remember todays 125 is still like 1800 pre split or something in that region (not sure about the delution) plenty of grade A meat left on that bone. My PT is 15 and thats still generous if growth collapses in 23 which very much seems to be the case.
 

Adriano@10

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Man all this shows is how useless all these "experts" at cnbc and co are.....
If i can tell the cvna is losing money on a lot of the cars they are selling with a 15min research how the fuck do these guys not see it? Absolutely ridiculous it s always when P gos up who the greatest company ever blah blah then when shit implodes they go how the fuck did that happen...
Also not a single mention in this video that Garcia senior is a convicted fraudster.....

Like how could these experts not see that the model of buying a car in florida and selling it for the same price in minesota with no transport cost is not gonna work out.
Also fuck that last guy saying cvna revolutionized the industry what a dumb fucking thing to say
 
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I'm better than Icardi
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AA is a shameless man he knows that only way amc survives is if he keeps on milking the apes, also of course he him selfe and his sons made quite a profit off of the apes too.....
Also sadly some of the apes are dumb enough... they fell for the gold mine takeover they fell for the fucken popcorn business and so on....
Also this is one of these examples where AA is not commiting fraud but he clearly leeds retail to the slaughterhouse imo in times of social media the SEC should probably step in......


In other news brokers are stopping margin day trades on tesla shares, the camels back finally broke. Thanks to felon and CVNA i m gonna end up having a quite good year.... Also as always i m still not short enough that fucken ponzi. Remember todays 125 is still like 1800 pre split or something in that region (not sure about the delution) plenty of grade A meat left on that bone. My PT is 15 and thats still generous if growth collapses in 23 which very much seems to be the case.

i mean they call themselves apes.. but fucks sake, these guys do 0 due diligence. Like a basic market assessment for corn whichever way you look can tell you this ain't going anywhere. Fucking guys thought a shareholder NFT was going to save them :palm:.

Man all this shows is how useless all these "experts" at cnbc and co are.....
If i can tell the cvna is losing money on a lot of the cars they are selling with a 15min research how the fuck do these guys not see it? Absolutely ridiculous it s always when P gos up who the greatest company ever blah blah then when shit implodes they go how the fuck did that happen...
Also not a single mention in this video that Garcia senior is a convicted fraudster.....

Like how could these experts not see that the model of buying a car in florida and selling it for the same price in minesota with no transport cost is not gonna work out.
Also fuck that last guy saying cvna revolutionized the industry what a dumb fucking thing to say

aren't all sell side analysts basically the same like tv pundits? I mean look at all tesla price cuts :lol:.

in other news Tesla closing production sooner than expected in China :lol: UNLIMITED DEMAND
 
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Some thoughts for 2022 – bearish edition



Doom - War and Stagflation

I think markets are severely underpricing the risk of a full-blown conflict in China/Taiwan and Ukraine/Russia. Let’s not forget the significance that each of these has in markets. In a way we got a taste of how life is without the two most important exports out of these regions – chips and gas. Taiwan is one of the most important countries that powered almost everything electrical. If you think this year’s chip shortage was bad, imagine 20% of world’s supply being disrupted.



I think this year the green gang got a taste of what life is without proper planning without nuclear/LNG.

European-Gas-Prices.png


Eventually we will be 100% green, but it’s almost certain not in our lifetime without nuclear and/or LNG. Look at this graph below. It may not be impossible, but it is not as realistic as people make it out to be.

COP-21-Paris-Climate-Conference-Summit.png


While these two on their own would be a disaster, it is worse because it is eerily similar to what unfolded during the stagflation years – high inflation with energy crises that fucked the US economy. Even more frightening is that people have started calling for price controls, right when our biggest problem is supplying stuff, commies want to remove the production incentive.


Metrics matter

Anyone that reads history, knows that in every generation there are charlatans who claim that “this time it’s different”. It is not, it never is. If one reads Money for Nothing – the South Sea bubble, you will read how much of it relates to today. There are many interesting stories, one how during the peak, even during church the people were talking to each other and saying, “how goes the stock” and that became a very common saying as everyone had put money in them. Not saying that it is the same this time around but look at this:

Household Ownership of Stocks

2021: $44T 2011: $11T 2010: $9T 2009: $7T 2008: $10T 2007: $17T 2006: $14T 2005: $8T 2004: $7T 2003: $6T 2002: $7T 2001: $8T 2000: $13T *Goldman data, household + mutual fund ownership of equities. via @BearTrapsReport

And when there is so much liquidity, a lot of bullshit gets propped up. Some of this is 100% because the fed has killed every other form of income giving people very limited choice of where to park their savings. If people think that this correction. wait till you see what follows.

FIl5smQX0AYbApY


and it may get worse if people start running for the door, when the exit door gets smaller things can get UGLAY

FIhzEuWXEAEFokj


Speaking of things for which metrics no longer matter, you have the crypto mania that trades on nothing but with people who read a book or two on “trading signals” who look more like astrology, tarot witches than anyone doing serious investing. The whole thing is on leverage, 4-5% move in them and they start liquidating accounts. This was on a 30% correction, million of people got liquidated. Just wait when interest rates start going up and bitcoin moves sideways for a prolonged amount of time.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-800-000-crypto-traders-180000565.html

Another bubble to look for against which I have puts are the e vehicle bonanza. The thing about innovative bubbles is that the short-term impact is overstated, and long-term impact understated. You have a company like Rivian that has a $70bn market cap and the thing has 0 revenue, I mean how can I not short it. Do not get me started on delivery services (I hate doordash and uber, can’t wait to see how they cope when people stop funding these fucking money burning disaster).

Around the dry wood, even the wet ones burn

Correction is happening, no one knows when it’ll stop, but that does not mean there are not good companies to be found. After all Microsoft, Amazon, Cisco and a myriad of other companies declined by more than 70% during the dotcom bubble, but still survived and outperformed the wider market. Some of these stocks that have declined are truly disruptive, they were just retardly priced. Some are still very expensive (cloudflare) and some are just so bad they will go almost certainly lower as they are dog shit, overhyped companies that are not innovative at all (lemonade).

Emerging markets are cheap for a reason

While metrics are important, there is a reason why people are more lenient with advanced markets ie why they trade at higher multiples. Advanced countries are stable, emerging markets are not. While this time around emerging markets have started hiking rates before the FED, they are still emerging market. While it seems markets have started pricing in the fed rate, I doubt they are done buying USD. EM currencies against USD are heading for March 2020 levels, when they fled EM for security.

FIHEaZYXsAUtg14


2021 was worse for EM then 2020.



This is not to say that EM do something bad, it’s just unsafe, and you have a lot of things bundled up. How the fuck are Turkish Lira (commodity importer) and Brazil real (commodity exporter) correlated or those two correlated with the South African rand. ANSW: they are in same fucking "baskets". You buy an emerging market ETF, you buy turkish, south african and brazilian companies, with a myriad of other countries.

The biggest problem for EM will be China. I think China will get stuck on a middle-income trap eventually, but short-term it has worse problems. Omicron it seems won’t be contained and China is stuck on zero case policy. If it continues to quarantine people and shut off ports, prices will continue to go up. It is a very real possible contributor to stagflation that I think gets discounted. For me this will leave south-east asia as the one region which will carry growth as China did in 2008. Especially since China has itself 2008'd itself.

Conclusion

While I’ve been a doomsayer for a while now, and I’ve learned that the most bearish things that I listed are not likely to happen, I do still think that the likelihood of a blackswan event happening is a bit higher than average and it would be prudent to have some investments in Gold, if you think I am the only one, check Palantir.

If the economy continues to grow like it has so far, if there are no new tariffs/trade restrictions (quarantined staff/China, MAGA lunatics bringing jobs home, EU closing supply chains), if war does not occur(very likely) the economy can take interest rate hikes, and we will learn to invest in new environment. Long term, tech is deflationary and emerging markets will provide great opportunities for growth (or only great opportunity for growth), and e vehicles will be a reality, just do your DD as I do not think it will be a good year for them.



In nutshell:

Long: South-East Asia, payment processing, food restaurants and energy

Short: High Sales multiples tech, non-existent revenue e vehicles and emerging market currencies.


Ok i was wrong on payment processing and emerging market currencies.

I ll do a forecast for 2022
 
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brehme1989

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Ok i was wrong on payment processing and emerging market currencies.

I ll do a forecast for 2022
Way wrong :D

Forecasting 2022 seems challenging
 
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Way wrong :D

Forecasting 2022 seems challenging
Energy, food and restaurants were fucking good though in comparison with what happened to tech lol
 
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brehme1989

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Energy, food and restaurants were fucking good though in comparison with what happened to tech lol
not your fault that shit went the way it did, don't worry :lol:


There's also the issue with the war in Ukraine which made things really bad for everyone from an economic perspective. But obviously I'd rather pay 10% more for shit for 1-2 years than getting bombed at.


The market is tied with that and it won't really recover until we have some sort of peace treaty agreed. Unless you're oil. Oil has it good.
 
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why should I not buy Spotify?
 
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