Stocks

[brehme1989]

I like Options. And it's far better than actual shorting.

That's why I asked, it's usually reserved exclusively.

Problem is with leverage. If you're not a huge bank, you're screwed if one of them goes badly.

 

[Adriano@10]

True even though at times i d prefer to short sell directly.

Side note sorrento is somehow 5% up atm, that is after beeing down 10% plus pretty much till lunch time in ny....
Fucking cray ride.

Also us senate passes bill that could delist chinese companies in the us.
Baba and co down 2-3%
That gsx put yesterday was spot on

 

[brehme1989]

Found those two interesting.

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4348668-u-s-stock-market-trying-to-understand-bulls

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4349200-u-s-stock-market-still-trying-to-understand-bulls

 

[Adriano@10]

Aurora with another cray day
Also this: https://nypost.com/2020/05/21/scientists-believe-cannabis-could-help-prevent-treat-coronavirus/
I know it s the NYP and it looks like thats the news that sent weed stocks soaring.
Was not working today so not sure if the news hit AH or during trading hours also like with the vaccines i d take those news with a healthy portion of skepticism.

 

[Pimpin]

So, I invested on Beyond Meat

 

[brehme1989]

So, I invested on Beyond Meat

Any specific reason why?

I like that industry even if I'm not really a customer - due to scarcity of their products here not because I wouldn't go for it - but I think Impossible Foods is the one to hop on. When they decide to go public obviously.

I think BYND is a bit overpriced but these products will gain a momentum over the new few months. If your horizon is not long term, I think you're fine and you may enjoy some gains. But I don't really see this a 'winner' in the long run. Would have been a great bet in late March though.

 

[Pimpin]

It doesn't make much sense when I invest in food tbh, I just like something hahah, the price is a nice bonus.

It may be overpriced when compared to its past valuation, but i like it, and my friend with whom we eat steaks, trust me he is a big brazilian catholic motherfucker and he liked it too.

Everyone says how the market is not big enough for 8bn valuation, yet the meat industry with cargill meat, tyson, jbs has hundreds of billions revenue. Factor in that the point of beyond meat is to get people that eat plants too, and the stock imo could be criminally undervalued at 8bn.

Add the pressure of climate change, and i think the industry is a winner long term, Beyond Meat is tasty. If impossible food gets in I will buy that too.

- - - Updated - - -

I am thinking of making a report analysis on the Meat Industry, trying to sharpen my writing skills, would anyone be willing to give me feedback? Want to do like a report with Concentration Ratio, implications, growth, profit margin/scale, and future outlook with fake meat

 

[brehme1989]

Hertz filed for Chapter 11

 

[Adriano@10]

It doesn't make much sense when I invest in food tbh, I just like something hahah, the price is a nice bonus.

It may be overpriced when compared to its past valuation, but i like it, and my friend with whom we eat steaks, trust me he is a big brazilian catholic motherfucker and he liked it too.

Everyone says how the market is not big enough for 8bn valuation, yet the meat industry with cargill meat, tyson, jbs has hundreds of billions revenue. Factor in that the point of beyond meat is to get people that eat plants too, and the stock imo could be criminally undervalued at 8bn.

Add the pressure of climate change, and i think the industry is a winner long term, Beyond Meat is tasty. If impossible food gets in I will buy that too.

- - - Updated - - -

I am thinking of making a report analysis on the Meat Industry, trying to sharpen my writing skills, would anyone be willing to give me feedback? Want to do like a report with Concentration Ratio, implications, growth, profit margin/scale, and future outlook with fake meat

I ll gladly read your report and give you feedback note i did my BYND research pre IPO and thought their overpriced at anything above 50.
Imho TAM is grossly overstated as of now they sell burgers and thats pretty much it, i know they have other lines but do they sell?
Furthermore i do not believe margins are sustainable either you reach masses or you sustain margins imho you cant have it both ways and selling for a higher price then real meat will never reach masses. Furthermore i prefer the impossible burger just on a taste basis.

I also believe that nestle and other big boys will enter the market and then margins will disappear especially when sold through fast food chains.
My biggest problem is that i dont think there will be any brand loyality as soon as other veggy /vegan burgers taste as good consumers will simply go for the cheapest option.

That being said i think it s very possible that they double up or more before reality hits, imho their much like tesla as in their SH base are pretty big fans and valuation can get out of hands. Unlike tesla though their mgm is sane and is not lying to investors.

Anyways my main beef with them is and was the valuation, maybe they manage to justify current valuation in comming years but i dont think theres much growth left.

 

[brehme1989]

LATAM Airlines file for bankruptcy. Shit haha. It was a small gamble anyway.

 

[Pimpin]

why is beyond meat trading like a tech stock? Do these morons not realise that a good % of their nice margings come from restaurant sales? Easing lockdowns would be good for them, no?

 

[brehme1989]

why is beyond meat trading like a tech stock? Do these morons not realise that a good % of their nice margings come from restaurant sales? Easing lockdowns would be good for them, no?

It's because it's a religious, cult stock as well. Similar to Tesla.

 

[Adriano@10]

why is beyond meat trading like a tech stock? Do these morons not realise that a good % of their nice margings come from restaurant sales? Easing lockdowns would be good for them, no?

As i said same as tesla cult following and big chunk of investor base is probably retail.

Two other things is it me or are most gains made in the AH these last couple of days? Like yesterday was a big rally but across the board most indices opened higher than they closed, been the case for some time now when we re green.

Also amazon apparently in talks to buy zoox and VW about to close a 491 mio investment in ANhui which would give em 50% of the chinese EV producer.


I know not the time to buy car stock but I prefer to Invest in strong names atm and I think i ll buy some VW on the next dip.

Also looking at SK they handled the pandemic great, imho they know what to do when/if there s a reemergence on top of that they got some great companies there: I m still stuck looking at the obvious ones:LG/samsung/popsco.... and so on
If anybody knows the korean market well any tips for smaller caps that are publicly traded would be appreciated.

 

[Pimpin]

It's because it's a religious, cult stock as well. Similar to Tesla.

it's hilarious, alot of their revenue comes from restaurants yet people trade it as if it were a cloud computing play (corona good, opening up bad)

As i said same as tesla cult following and big chunk of investor base is probably retail.

Two other things is it me or are most gains made in the AH these last couple of days? Like yesterday was a big rally but across the board most indices opened higher than they closed, been the case for some time now when we re green.

Also amazon apparently in talks to buy zoox and VW about to close a 491 mio investment in ANhui which would give em 50% of the chinese EV producer.


I know not the time to buy car stock but I prefer to Invest in strong names atm and I think i ll buy some VW on the next dip.

Also looking at SK they handled the pandemic great, imho they know what to do when/if there s a reemergence on top of that they got some great companies there: I m still stuck looking at the obvious ones:LG/samsung/popsco.... and so on
If anybody knows the korean market well any tips for smaller caps that are publicly traded would be appreciated.

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1265364833765134336/photo/1

you are very right.

Also, VW is absolutely the right play long run for battery

 

[brehme1989]

Well, the reason for Beyond Meat having a negative correlation is the meat industry itself. Production was expected to decrease with further lockdown so alternative sources had to be available, hence alternative food sources rallied. If we reopen, meat producing factories will recommence and Beyond Meat loses its corona edge.

That part made sense. What does not is the fascination people have with these vegan food companies.

 

[Adriano@10]

That part made sense. What does not is the fascination people have with these vegan food companies.

As i said i like the products and the idea behind it, but as i said i dont see any moat.
But then again we re in the hype cycle it s not only Bynd that has a weird cultish following, as long as your perceived to be hip/cool you got the young generation on your side plus if you show growth and if on top of that you can show higher margins than legacy companies the herd is gonna flock to you.
Wether it s sustainable or not does not seem to matter.

 

[brehme1989]

Yeah I also like the products and idea, but to an extent this is like the cryptomadness.

Lots of people growing up in environments they learned to hate (financial centers, meat industry, political situations etc) have now money to spend. So they jump on bandwagons on everything they perceive as game changing or life changing.

Beyond Meat and rivals => Meat industry dies.
Cryptocurrency => Paper currencies become obsolete.
Virtual Banking => Conventional banking becomes obsolete.

I mean I don't mind the idea, but there's an important portion of the population that feels religiously about these things. And more.

 

[Pimpin]

Beyond though has actually posted profits and is in an industry where scale adds to profit margins. Their fattest margins are in restaurants, so with them opening up, Beyond will get one of their main revenue streams. Unlike space companies or tesla, it doesn't go to fiction realm to prop up its share price, it is what it says it is. The ceo even sounds quite rational as well. They can actually also cut back prices to compete with actual meat. Further down the road, more people will talk about how cows emit more dangerous gases than freaking cars, if there is anything near carbon like taxes, that industry will get slaughtered (no pun intended).

Add to the fact that not only meat eaters will eat it, but a growing group of vegans. I hate vegans, ill be honest, i am not fond of those wimps, but the trends are very clear. I just do not see where the ceiling is for this stock. IMO it could seriously hurt the tyson foods and the other companies.

also does anyone notice the difference in intellectual conversation between cnbc and bloomberg?

 

[Adriano@10]

Beyond though has actually posted profits and is in an industry where scale adds to profit margins. Their fattest margins are in restaurants, so with them opening up, Beyond will get one of their main revenue streams. Unlike space companies or tesla, it doesn't go to fiction realm to prop up its share price, it is what it says it is. The ceo even sounds quite rational as well. They can actually also cut back prices to compete with actual meat. Further down the road, more people will talk about how cows emit more dangerous gases than freaking cars, if there is anything near carbon like taxes, that industry will get slaughtered (no pun intended).

Add to the fact that not only meat eaters will eat it, but a growing group of vegans. I hate vegans, ill be honest, i am not fond of those wimps, but the trends are very clear. I just do not see where the ceiling is for this stock. IMO it could seriously hurt the tyson foods and the other companies.

also does anyone notice the difference in intellectual conversation between cnbc and bloomberg?

HAAHAAHAH bro cnbc is selling out big time. Watch the fight between joe Kernan vs andrew sorkin this morning absolute gold from an entertainment point of view. Also Joe is a piece of shit and more of a salesman than anything else.

On bynd i agree that they dont fake profits but again i just dont believe they can reach masses as in both meat eaters and non meat eaters while maintaining a higher price then beef products. Neither do i think they have any significant moat when it comes to taste especially when served in a burger with all the sauces on top. My personal opinion is that this just like the real meat industry will become highly competitive and margins will be shrinking from here on out, especially when distributing through fast food networks their not gonna let margins on the table once cheaper substitutes are available.

Again no issues with the company just with the assumed TAM (they claim to be the whole meat industry) and margins going forward. I might be very wrong and beyond manages to create customer loyality in which case margins would be more sustainable. But since most consumers dont give a who their meat produced i just dont think they all of a sudden gonna care when it comes to a vegan patty.

If you think there is brand loyality and there is a market for bynd sausages and other products then current valuation does not seem to high. Again it basically comes down to competition and adoption i just think competition will be on the market fast and i think adoption of meat eaters will be rather slow after the initial hype died down.

Edit: Interview with Ken Block from muddywaters: https://www.globalcapital.com/artic...apitalism-breaks-its-capitalists-who-broke-it

Touches everything from general shorting to china fraud to his WDI dispute, good read and a must if your invested in us listed chinese companies

Edit: if we re again opening in the green and closing lower today then i might really think about buying S&P futures just before close and sell em at the open. Looked back at some data and would have worked quite nicely....
It is a pure gamble though.

 

[Pimpin]

got my spirit airline profit, 15% on open and now its dipping. May buy it before close again haha

Also trump lashing out at twitter, this will be good.

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
20m
Twitter has now shown that everything we have been saying about them (and their other compatriots) is correct. Big action to follow!