Stocks

[Pimpin]

fucking hate myself for not sticking with Greggs short. Literally everyprice on the market is Bananas. We never were gonna open in mid April. Bunch of fucking buffoons.

 

[brehme1989]

Down down down.

Not a fan but it shouldn't have gotten up in April.

I have a few losses now which wasn't the case earlier but that means I'm just gonna dig into some of these again. Horizon is medium to long term anyway and some of these prices look very attractive.

But we are in for a big shock after the first couple of busts.

 

[Adriano@10]

I m glad i only invested in div paying stuff last week lets put it that way, also i still think it ll get much worse.

Also wtf is the reversal all about?

That whole GS/WFC merger rumour shows just how many idiots who do no research we have on the markets. WFC up 5% on obvious bs.

 

[Pimpin]

In my opinion, Wells Fargo is the canary. How can you have a bank who depends on lending, trade so low, if all the firms who supposedly will default on loans to said bank are trading at much higher multiples.

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I really like american banks, for the sole fact that they are so much better than European ones, yet european ones are trading better. European banks are so unprepared for what is about to come.

 

[Adriano@10]

I was more talking about a merger not beeing possible because of the size of WFC!

Also on US banks Buffet sold of his Us Bancorp stake to under 10%...

Make of that what ever you want

But as you said the worst is most likely yet to come especially for banks....

 

[Pimpin]

oh I completely missed teh merger bit. i thought you were shitting on Wells and GS.

Yeah no way in seven hells they let them merge

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watch first 2 mins

 

[brehme1989]

People are bored:

 

[Pimpin]

https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy/status/1261217311018618886


september will be spectacular

 

[Adriano@10]

https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy/status/1261217311018618886


september will be spectacular

HAHAAHHAH gonna be funny theres so much weird shit happening.

Also trade war seemingly firing up again with Huawai still being denied access to us tech suppliers.

China threatens with an unreliable entity list for us companies. Speculation that they would stop buying boeings and companies like apple/ qualcomm and cisco would only get limited access to the chinese markets.

 

[Pimpin]

what planes will china fly?

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US Retail Sales in April
Overall: -16.4%
Clothing: -78.8%
Electronic Stores: -60.6%
Forniture, home: -58.7%
Eating, drinking: -29.5%
Gasoline stations: -28.8%
Department stores: -24.7%
.
.

 

[Adriano@10]

what planes will china fly?

Airbus i guess and i guess their still hoping on that comac to come through at one point.
But i guess your right that they re basically forced to buy boeing unless they want overreliance on Airbus.

Then again with all the airliners saying flying wont be at 2019 levels for 3 to 5 years does anybody even need planes?

I wonder more what they would do about apple for example would they really dare to kick em out? Probably it s all just show and flexing of muscles from both sides but imho it really aint helpful ATM.

Like one one side trump Mnuchin and co go on tv as often as possible to try and pump markets up and at the same time they decide to start another trade war? How does that make sense?



Side not oil rallies again.....

Sorrento therapeuthics claims they have a covid 19 cure that also prevents people form getting it in the first place.
Stock is up 55% read the ceos declarations sounds like a whole lot of BS..
Bought some put straight away.

Edit2: LOL i was way to early up 88% now, funny thing is my put is still in the money looks like a lot of other people are trying to short this.

HAHAH its at 200% i m fucked........

Edit: Atlanta fed q2 GDP -42%: https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

 

[Adriano@10]

Pimpin

Buffet sold majority of his GS holdings and trimed down JPM: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-15/buffett-s-berkshire-trims-jpmorgan-goldman-stakes

 

[Pimpin]

if that is true than I should sell off whatever I have and just wait for more clarity, this is very scary. I feel sorry for anyone that has European bank stocks.

 

[brehme1989]

if that is true than I should sell off whatever I have and just wait for more clarity, this is very scary. I feel sorry for anyone that has European bank stocks.

I will consider some UK banks after the summer, will evaluate their situation then. Mostly eyeing HSBC, Barclays and Standard Chartered. But won't even bother with the European market until July. I am intrigued by some French and Italian stocks as well, but I won't be putting any signficant amounts (whereby signicant always means relative to someone's entire portfolio, not necessarily in crude numbers).

I would not touch German or Italian banks. French banks are safer in my view but not really safe enough. Spanish banks I don't know much about but I'd be wary. There are two German banks actually that I'd consider but since I'm on the DeutscheBank will eventually collapse bandwagon I cannot really bet on any of the European banks. Especially German ones. The British ones is another story, especially with Brexit.

 

[Pimpin]

I have been looking at HSBC as well for the past few months, what's your take on it? Also why do you like French banks? EU banks in general have put much less money than US banks aside for loan defaults.

 

[brehme1989]

I like French banks more than German and Italian ones, didn't say I like them in general

With UK banks I'm still waiting to see clear signals about the Brexit situation on top of the coronavirus situation.

I do like SC's price at the moment though and wouldn't mind if it fell a bit more.
HSBC I like because they are a bank I have an account with and generally I consider them the best and safest UK bank. No solid investment reason why yet. I generally avoid the LSE but decided I'm gonna go for it soon and the banks are just part of the diversification process.

I don't want to start checking them out thoroughly now as I'm liable to pull the trigger once I do, so I have to contain myself. Will definitely say more once I research the subject enough. For now it's just part of a potential portfolio.

 

[Adriano@10]

Yeah looks like monday could be bad with the buffet anounncement and the fed statement just after friday close. Here is part of it: The Fed noted that stock prices had “swung widely,” and said other assets could be in for lower prices.

“Asset prices remain vulnerable to significant declines should the pandemic worsen, the economic fallout prove more adverse or financial system strains re-emerge,” the Fed warned.

“The severe disruptions in economic activity following the outbreak could reduce house prices by bringing down household incomes and restricting access to mortgage credit,” the report said, though a decline in supply could limit that effect.


As for banks i would still like to get a grasp of the size of defaults that we re gonna see before i invest, current write offs dont seem to be adequate.
Also gonna look at swiss banks first.


In other new saudis sovereign fund is trying to seek a 10bio margin loan and pledge a part of their softbank stake.....
Also they invested 300mio in FB, BA and C.

How on earth does anybody still take softbank serious? biggest pile of shit companies in one fund that i ve ever seen..

And this is what worries me i dont think i ve ever seen a recession/depression where shit companies were still flying high and atm we got more of them on the market then ever before maybe with only the dot.com bubble being worse
Everything that promises growth and or claims to be tech is just overvalued as fuck. I also believe if one of the retail darlings (Bynd/Tesla/Carvana/Etsy/Shop/W) breaks down or goes to trading at a reasonable price fear might spread in the markets. Not saying all of them are useless but they are trading at levels where even if they capture most of the Tam there is still no room for growth left.
But as long as softbank and people like Kathie wood are out there defnding this absolute BS we might see this go on for some time. I just refuse to belive that we re at a market low when fundamentally unprofitable companies who have flawed BMs are trading at astronomical multiples cause thats usually not how a market low looks.

Question is how long will it take for markets to realize that certain BMs are gonna stay unprofitable no matter how big the scale/ How much longer will investors be okay to exchange profits for growth? Especially if we re talking companies that are 10 years and older.
Again one simple look softbanks vision fund and one should easily see that they did not care about due diligence when valuing their Investments. All they cared about was growth and hype and the rational that they only needed to score one unicorn out of all your investments and you d be fine. It s just plane stupid especially when you end up valuing companies like we work at 40 bio even more so when profitable competition with the same rental space available for rent trades at a market cap of 6(if i remember correctly). Same BM same sector just one claimed to be a tech company and got 5 times the valuation of the other one.


Call me a hater but i do think that will see a VC or a hot silicon valley company go bust before we reach the bottom.

Edit: Funny and true: https://twitter.com/armadillo_rick/status/1261741555964149760

 

[Adriano@10]

Neither buffet nor powell seems to have scared markets futures green and oil somehow in the 30s.

For anybody who s got an hour time and is interested in all the Bs thats going on on Wall street here s a link to adam Jonas internal Goldman asset call on Tesla: https://www.dropbox.com/s/w6hz6iy4t4kvusp/TSLA-Morgan Stanley call-5-22-19.MP3?dl=0

Compare what he says on this internal calls and what he says in his public notes day and night, pretty bearish on the internal call and a perma bull on everything he publishes on tesla fucken disgrace.

Also if your invested in tesla it s a must listen..
Not sure who leaked it but adam is in some shit atm.

Also emirates contemplaining firing 30k people ..... Airlines will be fine they said.


Edit can anybody make sense of wti? Contracts settle tomorrow something seems off.

 

[.h.]

so in early Jan I was kinda impressed by Pimping's Greggs position, so I decided to take one myself.

Its the only fucking trade I have atm that is still in the red - everything else is massively up. Fucking greggs at -33% is the bane of my portfolio. Luckily it was very small (<3%) of the overall portfolio worth.

 

[Pimpin]

I am sorry it did not work out, iirc at that point i had closed greggs at some 100%+ gain. With that being said, what physical store bm is not down 33% from January highs.