Stocks

[Pimpin]

I'd never put money on oil right now, its way too risky.

no offense, but weren't you a bitcoin investor?

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.ft.com/content/0a4872d1-4cac-4040-846f-ce32daa09d99

I wouldnt take this seriously. It is from WHO from a chinese group.

 

[Adriano@10]

https://www.ft.com/content/0a4872d1-4cac-4040-846f-ce32daa09d99

I wouldnt take this seriously. It is from WHO from a chinese group.

Jim Cramer seems to think the same.

I just dont see what benefit the chinese could possibly gain from saying it s ineffective, especially when they know that further trials will be done.

Yes it s from china and yes we should look at their data with skepticism but in terms of methodology this is the closest we came to an actual study, there was a control group and so on.
All that was lacking in the initial claims of remesdivirs efficiency and it all was based on a leaked conference call.
Now i m not saying trust the chinese but honestly both claims come from shady sources/methodologies.

Also i think the market is with you on this gilad s price spiked more on remedsivir s efficiency news then it fell on the News that it s not working.

EDIT: Does anybody have an idea wtf is happening at Whiting petroleum(WLL)? filed for chapter 11 on april 1st. stock traded at 0.39$that day, today they are trading at 1.72$ they are up 101% today alone. Also according to the filing current Equity holders would receive 3% of the equity after the restructuring.
What am i missing?
Also 52 weeks high is 29.65$

 

[Pimpin]

Jim Cramer seems to think the same.

I just dont see what benefit the chinese could possibly gain from saying it s ineffective, especially when they know that further trials will be done.

Yes it s from china and yes we should look at their data with skepticism but in terms of methodology this is the closest we came to an actual study, there was a control group and so on.
All that was lacking in the initial claims of remesdivirs efficiency and it all was based on a leaked conference call.
Now i m not saying trust the chinese but honestly both claims come from shady sources/methodologies.

Also i think the market is with you on this gilad s price spiked more on remedsivir s efficiency news then it fell on the News that it s not working.

EDIT: Does anybody have an idea wtf is happening at Whiting petroleum(WLL)? filed for chapter 11 on april 1st. stock traded at 0.39$that day, today they are trading at 1.72$ they are up 101% today alone. Also according to the filing current Equity holders would receive 3% of the equity after the restructuring.
What am i missing?
Also 52 weeks high is 29.65$

there is nothing accidental about who nor about the chinese, they are in full panic mode and they will use any means necessary to mislead people. They stopped remdisivir use after A MONTH of using it, and AFTER they tried to re-patent it. Now, since they do not "have many patients" they discontinued a study.

I think its more of sour grapes than anything else.

Looking at this whitting petroleum, it looks like a classic pump and dump.

- - - Updated - - -

https://time.com/5782633/covid-19-drug-remdesivir-china/

While BrightGene said that it intends to license the drug from Gilead, its move to start manufacturing at this early stage is highly unusual and a potential infringement of the American company’s intellectual property. It comes a week after Chinese researchers filed an application to patent the drug to treat the new coronavirus, a bid that would give China sway over the global use of the therapy to fight the outbreak.

this was on 12th of february

- - - Updated - - -

this was on 5th of February.

BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - A state-run Chinese research institute has applied for a patent on the use of Gilead Sciences’ experimental U.S. antiviral drug, which scientists think could provide treatment for the coronavirus that has killed hundreds and infected thousands.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-patent/china-lab-seeks-patent-on-use-of-gileads-coronavirus-treatment-idUSKBN1ZZ0RL

- - - Updated - - -

And if you check the study, even without a controll group, you can make an assumption that the results are outlandishly better than the existing data, ie. ppl that haven't been treated.

 

[Adriano@10]

So JC Penney is the next retailer who is in talks for bankruptcy funding... WSJ:https://www.wsj.com/articles/j-c-pe...ruptcy-financing-11587688846?mod=hp_lead_pos2

Also BoA downgraded tesla to underperform..... PT of 485 still to much imho but atleast not complete nonsense of a buy rating at 600+$

Stupid question but does anybody know if KBB is blocked if you wanna access it from outside the US? Trying to do some research on carvana but anytime i wanna access KBB it tells me i dont have permission to access the kbb on this server. And i ve already tried VPN and all which btw is the first thing i found weird about carvana accessing them from outside the us also does not work without a VPN. Why on earth would they do that?
Anyways some help on the kelly blue book thing would be much appreciated even if it s another way to check used care prices in the US.

Also the craziest part of all that is happening is that with tyson shutting down two meat plants the chances of a meat shortage in the US and canda are real...
Not saying it s gonna happen but the us consumer might very well loose his shit over this.

Sums up neatly why I have a problem with robinhood:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/you...t-even-tracking-the-price-of-oil-anymore.html

Retail really has no business owning USO i d bet that 80% of the users dont even understand how USO works. I do not understand how regulators can ildy sit by while retail gets so fucken obviously burnt. Investor protection my ass.
Free trading platforms with a limited research tools should really be limited to Equities and SP 500 Nasdaq and dow etfs and thats it. Cause lets be honest thats what 80% of retail can somewhat handle.

EDIT: Almost forgot Amex earnings call today pre market.

Edit2: Another gem by the philantrophist that is Elon Musk: http://thelefthook.com/2020/04/23/u...fuses-to-pay-service-workers-during-covid-19/
How do people not see him for who he is?

 

[Pimpin]

Bloomberg News with some distressing news: U.S. homeowners seeking to delay mortgage payments topped 3.4 million, up 17% from a week earlier, according to Black Knight. About 6.4% of mortgage borrowers have entered forbearance

its almost as if the markets are not reading news and its filled with robinesque investors who buy the dip. Every company is raising money, every company has liquidaty thanks to fed, the sole reason this is not a complete meltdown.

Lets see where we come out once this ends..

el arian spot on as always.

- - - Updated - - -

anyone checking hertz?

 

[Adriano@10]

Yeah hes absolutely spot on he was on bloomberg to yesterday saying essentially the same thing

Amex same thing as all the others first thing they say no way we can guide in this environment and that everything depends on how long the unemployed stay unemployed.
Card recivables is down 21% yoy and they still were growing till feb. They still feel in a strong position as tier on capital is higher than requested and 80% of their loan portfolio is to prime creditors or higher. Said they are gonna cut most marketing spending...
Built additional provisions for loss of 1.7 bio a 224% increase yoy.
Diluted eps:0.41 in 19 it was at: 180

It sure aint pretty.

On hertz looked at them in the begining of this shit but when checking out their rates i got scared. There is a bull case to be made though as i doubt many people will board planes this summer maybe even into next year and more domestic travel might very well lead to an increase in demand. Only problem with that s pretty high car per capita in the US. Not sure how many would rent a car for a trip when they got a car at home. Also another company where i suspect that Revenue has dried up pretty close to completely ATM and their fixed costs aint low.

If theres a rental company that only serves NYC that might be a brilliant investment.

 

[Pimpin]

On hertz looked at them in the begining of this shit but when checking out their rates i got scared. There is a bull case to be made though as i doubt many people will board planes this summer maybe even into next year and more domestic travel might very well lead to an increase in demand. Only problem with that s pretty high car per capita in the US. Not sure how many would rent a car for a trip when they got a car at home. Also another company where i suspect that Revenue has dried up pretty close to completely ATM and their fixed costs aint low.

If theres a rental company that only serves NYC that might be a brilliant investment.

rumor has it that one of the auto renting companies will fold these weeks heard it from one of my friends in the "industry"

Im just wondering if they are the one to fold
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hertz-taps-restructuring-advisers-while-234044600.html

 

[Adriano@10]

Im just wondering if they are the one to fold
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hertz-taps-restructuring-advisers-while-234044600.html

ahh did not know you were talking about a short..
Man checking Avis(CAR) i m not so sure which one is worse off...
Avis is more leveraged but reported a profit last while hertz was in the red. Then again Hertz has more cash on hand......

I dont know enough to call who of em would fold first but they are both in a shitty place thats for sure.

 

[AntonTheGreat]

Inovio has made me a happy man in the last 7 days!

 

[Pimpin]

zoom CRASHING THE FUCK UP since facebook announced they will allow calls of up to 50 ppl.

 

[Adriano@10]

zoom CRASHING THE FUCK UP since facebook announced they will allow calls of up to 50 ppl.

LOL was to obvious that it s to easy to do for anybody else. I m still astonished that the market ever rated zoom that highly when google has already the same prod +/- on the market and zoom runs all it s comm through china.

Also atleast US consumer confidence is decent at 71.8 vs consensus of 67 still bad but the first data point in a long time that is actually better than expected.
Still does not justify the stock bump to +1% but atleast for once theres some good news when stocks are up.

Would not be surprised if we go on anther idiotic buy the dip rally.

 

[Adriano@10]

Trump says us should buy years of plain tickets: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ernment-should-buy-years-of-plane-tickets-now

What the actual fuck is happening???
Lets manipulate markets so there s no more downside ever, if theres no demand will just create it...

 

[ADRossi]

Trump says us should buy years of plain tickets: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ernment-should-buy-years-of-plane-tickets-now

What the actual fuck is happening???
Lets manipulate markets so there s no more downside ever, if theres no demand will just create it...

It's just another form of economic stimulus. The fact is as long as borders remain closed the airlines are going to fail.

While us free-market economists don't want him to intervene, you know he will. It's votes, it's the economy, and it's lobbyists.

 

[Adriano@10]

It's just another form of economic stimulus. The fact is as long as borders remain closed the airlines are going to fail.

While us free-market economists don't want him to intervene, you know he will. It's votes, it's the economy, and it's lobbyists.

And it s dumb and will cost more on the long run than letting the market be the market and support the unemployed instead of creating artificial demand. Why not just let em cook the books?

Its literally the dumbest form of stimulus i ve ever heard whats next lets buy cars cause ford cant sell em lets book uber rides cause you know uber rides are down 60%.

How anybody in his right mind could be in favour of this is beyond me.

Also check the high yield bond market vs Equities seems like the two don t agree on the future outlook of the economy.

 

[Pimpin]

this article scared the living shit out of me


https://www.ft.com/content/ed2dc3a9-c004-4c37-a5e3-715c1d05a2e6


some of the quotes seem eerily familiar

“People tend to look backward in history saying CLOs survived the last financial crisis,” said Michelle Russell-Dowe, head of securitised credit at fund manager Schroders. “I am very concerned about that statement. Applying the same logic to the mortgage market in 2008 led people to say that borrowers would always pay back their mortgages before anything else. That historically true fact was not true that time around.”



Just as the mortgage market went through a period of loosening lending standards in the run-up to 2008, powered by demand from structured products, so too has the leveraged loan market since then, fuelled by CLOs.*

These instruments have doubled in size since the financial crisis to more than $600bn.*The leveraged loan market has also doubled to roughly $1.2tn.

Aggressive private-equity borrowers, aided by law firms eager to win new business, have taken advantage of demand and stripped protections from loan documentation. Financial covenants that limit how much debt a company can take on, for example, or how much cash companies have to keep on hand to pay interest on their loans, have gone missing in action.

 

[Adriano@10]

Thats very scary.....


Also minesota fed chair said he thinks they should move to negative rates next week.

Also heres eliots view on the situation: https://www.docdroid.net/kfBxxVh/elliot-letter-april-162020-perspectives-paul-singer-elliott-pdf

have not had time to read it jet but a friend suggested it s a good read.

 

[Pimpin]

this is gold

 

[Adriano@10]

Do you know how old the interview is pimpin?

Also El Erian talking for 1h about the after covid environnement: https://munkdebates.com/dialogues/mohamed-el-erian

Edit: Also bejing closing it s gyms again.....

 

[Pimpin]

Do you know how old the interview is pimpin?

Also El Erian talking for 1h about the after covid environnement: https://munkdebates.com/dialogues/mohamed-el-erian

Edit: Also bejing closing it s gyms again.....

check from 10:16

 

[Adriano@10]

check from 10:16

Yeah saw that was a bit surprised that he does not dislike elon. BUt yeah again everybody who does the math comes to the same conclusion...
Was also funny when he said someday some body is gonna write about GM and it s self drive as if there were not thousand of investors who listen to every word Steve says. Sadly i did not follow him on his Gamestop call. Was wondering about the age of the clip cause of the tesla thingy.

Also new tesla autopilot beta is out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IarT5moK2kA

First of how do people trust this thing it s extremely scetchy, secondly how is tesla allowed to let its customers test this IRL this is far from safe and any big producer would not be allowed to do this.
Last but not least how can anybody believe tesla is in lead when it comes to "FSD" when their cars can barely stop at a red light and stop sign.
Meanwhile waymo has driverless cars on the streets of phenix and sf that do all this without any problems.

Steve is right when he calls em a cult and as long as the SEC just idly stands by and lets em do what they want as well as consumer protection agencies shorts might have a very tough time.