What do you think of aurora? Their stock is so cheap! Think I'm going to buy some more canopy today as well, looks a good price at the moment and I plan on holding it for 5-10 years anyway. Next might not be bad as well, they are a really good company with a good online presence. Probably a bit dear though.
Dont confuse low price with cheap stock two totally different things.
Let me say it like this Aurora is cheaper based on revenue multiples, but they have a bigger problem with their FCF as canopy already started cutting back costs yes they also have CF concerns but i think their peak negative CF was last year Q3 and has gone up ever since(not 100% sure of the timing) while aurora had it s peak neg CF last quarter. So the concern of a possible cash crunch/chapter 11 is bigger than at Canopy also i think there still is a big class action law suit against aurora pending, at least it was still pending in lat 2019, but it might be that i missed it dont think so though.
Plus with canopy you got the backing of consteallation brands who are gona help a lot when it comes to refinancing and distribution of goods.
Basically you ll take the slightly higher risk betting on aurora but you probably also have the bigger upside if it works out. Aurora vs canopy is also a bit of a recrational vs medical thing so if you prefer the medical side aurora is the better bet.
Generally speaking i dont think your in a rush and i think 10 years down the line both will be good investments and in the worst case decent investments.
Theres some general problems on the horizon with everybody overestimating the rush to legality there now is an over supply in Canada and the us. Which obviously is a problem for the whole industry so unless we see a fast consolidation or a wave of legalization around the world then i think there s not much upside to either of the two names ATM. Theres also some positives for aurora and CGC it s them and maybe cronos or aphira who will most likely come out of the market consolidation with higher market share and stronger than before as many small producers wont survive whats about to come. The other good thing is that there might be a real push to legalisation around the world due to the econ situation it s one of the easiest forms of stimulus you create a bio $ industry by simply saying hey this plant aint illegal anymore. If i m not mistaken the great depression also helped a big deal in ending prohibition.
Gnerally speaking 10 years down the line both should be fine but i dont think your in a hurry imho markets still have not realized what a train wreck q2 will be.
Full discloser i missed a couple of great opportunities because of that view.
On next man I m not an expert in that field but i would not put a penny into any businesses with big brick and mortar retail businesses that dont sell necessities. Consumer spending on non necessities looks very grimm even in china where they should be in recovery mode, i also think people underestimate how much different the shopping experiance is gonna be the next 1 to 3 months.
I personally would wait for Q2 as i dont see the hurry in getting in now as again chances that Q2 will be much worse then people expect imho are quite high.
The again i did no research on next so i have no idea how big their exposure is to brick and mortar stores.
Side note gilead downgraded: probably one of the grimmer downgreads and shows the cruelty of capitalism as it was explain with the lack of clarity of how to monetize remedisvr(sp)..... as the ceo said their first priority is to get the medicament out to people who need it......
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