Stocks

[Adriano@10]

Chapter 11 filings in may up 48% yoy
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/202...avirus-bankruptcy.html?searchResultPosition=1

Side note nikola with a pretty decent IPO considering the circumstances up 4.8%

Still not sure what to think of them but they might very well be the next hype thing that goes ballistic with nothing to back em up.

 

[Fapuccino]

This is so funny. The world's burning, almost depression level unemployment and stock market is approaching pre-Corona levels

 

[Pimpin]

Lufthansa chief executive Carsten Spohr has admitted that the group’s €9bn bailout package from the German government is larger than what it needs to survive, and is designed to ensure the airline maintains a “global leading position”.

I knew this would happen, all german companies will be formidable out of this.

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I want to keep bunge long term tbh, I know dick about it aside from my friend who works in industry likes it. I am thinking of adding Bayer to it as well.

 

[Fapuccino]

Care to comment on it? IE how does it compare to others how does it make money, how can microsoft scoop them up ( I read ther were countless rumors of microsoft potentially acquiring them)

It's just I don't see where else they're going to go. They carved out a nice niche (CDN), but Microsoft and Amazon are Top 2 out of 3-4 companies largely because of the cloud business. They have infinite resources.

If you're gonna invest, know exactly what section of cloud computing they are looking to grow in, and what the plans of these top dogs are.

 

[Pimpin]

Yoo pimp man akamai almost seems to good to be true....... The closer i look the more i like em...

Only question i still have is the TAM and the entry point. Specially their security and web performances are hard to quantify and find comparables to.
You found anything on that?

Also did you find any info on the terms of the senior notes they issued in 19?

Overall they look very good maybe not the fastest growing cloud play but probably the most financial sound one especially of the smaller players. Also mgm seems to be on point...

Still have to read their 2020 proxy though...

Also on the worry of being bullied out of the industry by one of the big guys i just dont see it, they might get bought up especially at current prices. Just look at their fucken customer portfolio it s not gonna be easy to lure those clients away as long as the service is top notch.

Imho would be easier and probably cheaper for the big guys to just put the cash on the table and buy them rather than try to take customers from them. I mean would 16 bios really make a dent in MSFT or AMAZOns bottom line? Even if they pay a 50% goodwill it still would not make a change for these guys.
I mean it s not like AWS/Google/microsoft cloud are new products yet there does not seem to be any mayor loss of clients for akamai since these guys entered the market.

That being said i m convinced there will be a window of entry under 100 usd, so i ll read the proxy sit back and watch what happens.
But unless theres a huge red flag in the proxy i ll sonn be a sh of akamai.

Side note for the GAP fans: Simon property groups suing gap over 65 mio in unpaid rent. Also GAP continious to refuse to pay.
Source: Bloomberg

Who would have thought landlords are not happy with tenants simply not paying rent?

https://www.akamai.com/us/en/about/...g-of-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes.jsp

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As I showed in the previous posts, the market for CDN seems to be commoditised for lower ranked Alexa websites, but for streaming, and larger content, they all go with Akamai. And they don't need to go anywhere, with this growth in need for media and stuff, it will only go up.

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https://www.akamai.com/us/en/our-customers/customer-stories-nba.jsp

with the nba returning, a bigger proprotion of people will watch it online..


https://www.akamai.com/uk/en/about/facts-figures.jsp

 

[Pimpin]

if biden wins and elizabeth warren gets a post in one of the places she can do damage, big tech will not be that bullet proof tbh

 

[Pimpin]

anyone thoughts on Under Armour? Why is it that far behind lululemon? They are one strategy away from becoming the next puma sucess story, their products are not bad quality either. Like right now their ceo seems more like a supply chain specialist rather than some grand strategist


anyone thoughts on Under Armour? Why is it that far behind lululemon? They are one strategy away from becoming the next puma sucess story, their products are not bad quality either. Like right now their ceo seems more like a supply chain specialist rather than some grand strategist


https://www.ft.com/content/d409971c-791e-4602-b541-60c126d2e26e

However, ignoring pleas from the once-powerful car lobby and top executives, Berlin refused to reinstate a €5bn scrappage scheme that helped boost demand in the aftermath of the last financial crisis.
VW, which has been leading the charge into electric vehicles, has already sold almost all of this year’s emissions-free models, chief executive Herbert Diess recently told a German podcast.

 

[Adriano@10]

anyone thoughts on Under Armour? Why is it that far behind lululemon? They are one strategy away from becoming the next puma sucess story, their products are not bad quality either. Like right now their ceo seems more like a supply chain specialist rather than some grand strategist


anyone thoughts on Under Armour? Why is it that far behind lululemon? They are one strategy away from becoming the next puma sucess story, their products are not bad quality either. Like right now their ceo seems more like a supply chain specialist rather than some grand strategist


https://www.ft.com/content/d409971c-791e-4602-b541-60c126d2e26e

Been intreagued by UAA for some time usually bought around 16 to 18 and sold at 20.
The problem with UAA vs LULU is that UAA messed up it s branding completly their sold at every store in the us from their flagship stores to cheap discounters LULU is not in discounters. Because of that UAA has become a bit of a brand that alot of 40 year old beer bellied dudes wear it which kind of took away from it s cool/hip factor. So it really is a branding and a focus problem for the i mean why the fuck did they want to go that much into golfing thats already way off brand. Their selling in to many channels and their selling to much different stuff.

Jeff Macke discusses UAA VS LULU at length in the Quote the Raven podcast its #197 imho if you wanna look at UAA he makes a few good points on there and it s worth a listen. ANd if i remember correctly he talks quite a bit about LULU and UAA.

Also i said VW is gonna dominate the EV space .... I m still a bit worried about all manufacturing though as all of them would probably need a huge free pass on q2 and q3 in order to not lose significantly in value.

Also fucken AAL surging 40% yesterday because the chinese might allow a few more flights into the country than they currently do, how s that gonna help business? Those fuckers are at a max capacity pf 30% right fucken now, they need to be over 90 to make money. Also i urge everybody who invests in international airlines to read a travel report from anybody going to SK and China and think about how many people are gonna be willing to do that.
Anyways back to my point we have to many planes on this planet every single airline has to many planes ATM how are they gonna reduce fleet cost with nobody buying planes? I know i know 2 to 3 years down the road their gonna make money again i just dont get how so many people are willing to take that gamble.

Futures once again rallying fucken pjama traders getting more and more convinced that we re gonna see new highs before it all goes down the shitter again.

Side note my sorrento puts are finnally well into the money was a heck of a ride.....should have doubled down though when they went completly against e at the open though.

Another note some in the teslaq comunity claim the WAPO will publish a damaging article on tesla musk today and thats why Elon attacked Amazon yesterday. Not sure if true but if your invested in tesla you might wanna look out for that.

Pimpin i forgot to mention on the cloud play amazon and Slack just announced a partnership yesterday. Worth checking out plus will surely give slack a price boost.

EDIT: LOL or it wont slack down 11% somehow

 

[brehme1989]

Slack falling has more to do with forecast than anything that already happened.

If it tanks a bit more I may jump in. It is unnecessarily lumped into the Zoom hype which it cannot meet. Zoom is more likely to lose value than Slack imo.

 

[Pimpin]

Slack missed earnings or something along those lines, I saw it last night. I hear keep raving about it, yet their financials are not the best if I am being honest. On Tesla, my mind has not given up on me yet, so no I am not invested in that cult circle, but thanks for the heads up.

You are on point with UAA, that's what happens when you have a supply chain guy with zero knowledge of other stuff and focuses on Cost Volume Profit, fucking cost management 101 bullshit. I will check Jeff Macke, downloaded the episode so i will listen thru the day.

I am so pissed I got out of spirit airlines, that's like the flagship carrier of redneck america. Ain't no covid that can stop them. Tbh i made up for it with WHSmith but still. I like the latter for longer term too and it is not likely to face bankruptcy. I also like their managemnet, they are quite sensible, very unfortunate what happened wth the 'rona but yeah, I see them outperforming everyone again.

What will happen with the car industry will be very interesting, a part of me thinks with all this stimulus, they will introduce some measure for all subsidies to be electronic cars. It could mean very high copper prices, supply is very constrained and firms like southern copper may benefit. I am supper bullish on copper, super super bullish.

 

[brehme1989]

I had looked into that sector but didn't find anything that I consider a valuable investment.

Care to give your reasoning as to why you're going with Southern Copper and not someone else? Don't be fooled by the name, they also have relative diversification with the resources they are mining.
I'm not sure a Mexican owned company is the way to go here, just curious as to why you opted for them and not let's say Newmont or BHP?

 

[Pimpin]

I had looked into that sector but didn't find anything that I consider a valuable investment.

Care to give your reasoning as to why you're going with Southern Copper and not someone else? Don't be fooled by the name, they also have relative diversification with the resources they are mining.
I'm not sure a Mexican owned company is the way to go here, just curious as to why you opted for them and not let's say Newmont or BHP?

If you go back on my posts, I've been bullish on BHP for a long time, I know their portfolio inside out, if people remember my earlier posts. The reason why I am bullish on Copper is the supply constraints and the fast growth of demand. Right now I don't remember the whole picture but there's very few mines under development for copper and the next 10 years the prospect for it look good.

this is a good summary

https://www.ft.com/content/b71d2cde-da1a-3164-99c8-021f8d77a45b

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-m...-stand-outs-in-base-metals-poll-idUKKBN1ZT1UX

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https://www.ft.com/content/d9a48b64-0d81-11e8-839d-41ca06376bf2

basically what i was saying a few pages back, buy copper companies and us shale. Bhp fits the bill. Its a long term investment.

.. article by same guy, shale was good tbh pre corona

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Commodities go in these cycles of glut and shortages. Did a project on BHP.

..

 

[Adriano@10]

LOL if anybody wants a good laugh checkout hertz again yesterday up 83% today pre market up 63%...
Should have followed my instinct and go with that lets buy shitty companies where Robinhood traders will cary me to profitability strategy.

Gonna try it on the next big name that files chapter 11.

 

[Pimpin]

Saudi Energy Min: Conditions Do Now Warrant What Will Hopefully Be A Successful OPEC+ Meeting On Saturday - RTRS #OOTT
Iraq Confirms That It Is In Support Of All Deals Which Restore Oil Market Prices & Stability #OOTT
OPEC Delegate: OPEC+ Will Be Extending Current Output Cuts By At Least 1 Month #OOTT
-Those Nations Which Did Not Meet Quotas Will Be Compensating In The July To Sept Period
OPEC Delegate: The Aim From OPEC+ Is To Move The Oil Price Curve Into Backwardation #OOTT

so predictable

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thaat silence was golden haha

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US Unemployment Rate May: 13.3% (est 19.0%; prev 14.7%)

V SHAPE

 

[Adriano@10]

so predictable

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thaat silence was golden haha

hahaha joe is a fucken joke of a reporter....

Holy shit those numbers are almost too good to be true.

I still dont buy the v shape...

 

[brehme1989]

Rebound time.

Not sure if shit is going to hit the fan soon, but I'm anticipating a good run here for at least a couple of months.

 

[Pimpin]

any good stocks?

 

[brehme1989]

any good stocks?

Not sure if it's late for the party now.
I got into some in March and April. Don't recall adding any in May apart from Boeing (at 127$ iirc). Now it's at $199 in the premarket.

I don't think we'll reach the pre pandemic price levels so there's not much room imo.

But I would enhance my oil positions if I wanted to do a move.
ExxonMobil
Halliburton
Chevron
ConocoPhillips
Schlumberger

I'd go deeper on XOM and HAL. The rest I don't see with much upside from here on, meaning that I don't see them as great investments now, but decent enough. I have no need to increase exposure there.
Also had considered others but I stopped looking at those I didn't buy. Will come back tonight or tomorrow if I have more time to check these out.

I also have PetroBras but I'll sell it soon enough. Don't trust South American companies now that the situation is reversing.

 

[Adriano@10]

any good stocks?

Whats your time horizon and goal?

Good companies with ample upside to pre corona times: Zurn, SREN, Berk, Wells fargo and some other us banks but you know them already,Samsung, Byd, RI, VW, LHA,GM, GD and the bigger oil producers.
All companies that are still off of their jan highs and that i would not mind holding long term.
There are some more quality companies but most of them already higher than their jan/fEb highs so i doubt there s ample upside. One might add CRM adn INTC have not looked to close at INTC but at 12x p/e seems fair.

Some more risky ones where i see bigger upside in the short term but that i would not hold for longer horizon: PINS/US Air Carriers/TUP/LYFT/Uber/ AGL,ENI, CCL, TIF, BMO, HON, TWTR

I m sure i forgot some.

Also fully agree with brehme we re probably gonna have a nice little run from here on out unless unemploment all of a sudden brings a negative shocker..
But i do expect a pullback sowhere down the road wether q2 numbers will be enough to bring that pull back is yet to be seen.

Gonna leave this here: https://macrocharts.blog/2020/06/05/speculation-mode-on/

 

[Candreva Crosses]

I don't understand how you can recomend oil stocks.