Stocks

[Adriano@10]

WOW WOW take it easy there networkz!

But how did you figure that UA passed adidas in sales? If i look at last years numbers Adidas hal a revenue of around 9 bio and UA has a revenue of about 2 bio for the same period. Matter of fact adidas s revenue of one quatery is about the same of the yearly revenue of UA both around 3/4bio so i really dont see how adidas has 4 times the revenue of UA and at the same time UA outsells them that does not add up. I dont have exact sales numbers but from their respective 2016 q1to Q3 revenues there is no way UA outsold adidas.

CRZD i really enjoy the fact that your such a dividend investor gives me a perspective i would not usualy consider to much.
Also on valuing UA i lke to look how they would be priced if they had an average industry P/E which would be around 25 in this case UA would be fair valued at 11/12$. Assuming they slightly outperform the market a P/e of 30 should be fair so you d have a price of around 13/14$.
In order to justify a price of 15 their profits would need to increase by 13% which probably requires a revenue increas by around 30%. These figures are not accurate but i think they give you a good idea of what need to happen in order to justify the valuation cause in the long terms all companies will trend towards an industry average P/E. So imho right now the stock is highly overvalued, but with future growth it could be justified I just dont see them increasing revenue and profits fast enough to warrant current price and even at 15 I would be sceptical.
That being said Imho on the way down there will be a lot of rebounds and you could haevily profit. Usually you see bounce backs when stocks drop beyond psychological barriers such as the 20$ mark.

On dividend paying stocks you should check out Zurich insurance(ZURN) they pay pretty consistent dividends 17 CHF per year in the last 4 years.
They currently trade at 280 which looks high but i fully expect them to reach that 300 mark this year. Also those 17chf per stock are roughly 6% if you buy @280.
Also you have the advantage of the swiss Frank with the political instability in the US, EU and the UK switzerland and the Swiss frank once again look like a safe haven for Investors so if you invest over at least 3 years i also expect you to make a currency gain.

 

[crzdcolombian]

Sales world wide or in the US? From reading about UA they are not in China. So I don't see them out selling Adidas. Maybe it was in a certain segment or market. A very positive thing about UA is they have had + 20% growth every year but again think of it realively. Like if I start a company with 0 market share 30+ years after the two on top my growth has to be crazy high as well. I think they outselling in the basketball shoe market which is the most profitable of all of them. Adidas got out of the NBA because everyone wants Jordons. They also have Kobe/Lebron. Even having the NBA jersey exclusivity wasn't doing anyThing for them. They left that market. UA has Curry and his shoes were selling very well till the last ones that were ugly nurse shoes haha

I like UAs potential but I think it will def get cheaper. Like was said previously 40x earning is too much when Nike is at 25% plus give you a 1.26% dividend

 

[crzdcolombian]

Target just tanked again 15% today after a super awful quarter. Need to look at the quarterly report to see if it is a buy opportunity or over priced.

People panic all the time and need to time the market. Still think it is a solid company. And I like to buy low and sell high but tanking $20 bucks in 1 month is defiantly alarming.

 

[Adriano@10]

Target just tanked again 15% today after a super awful quarter. Need to look at the quarterly report to see if it is a buy opportunity or over priced.

People panic all the time and need to time the market. Still think it is a solid company. And I like to buy low and sell high but tanking $20 bucks in 1 month is defiantly alarming.

Well i just flew over the figures. Problem here is that they get beaten bad by Amazon who beats the crap out of them when it comes to online retailing and Walmart is currently beating them when it comes to general retailing, and target so far does not seem to be capable to answer to the competition.
Also their guidance for FY 17 earnings is very disappointing as they guided around 4$ where as consensus had target at a t5.34$

On the bright side CRZD if you buy them now you ll have a higher dividend yield. Also i bought call options again on the drop, I do expect a short term recovery as we see most of the time when there are 1 day losses of over10% and there s no substantial scandal behind it.
But if your investing for the long run i would not touch Target. As i said bevor Amazon and Walmart are stealing their market share and even Targets margins are diminishing. I dont see that fight over the retail market ending any time soon and while Walmart as well as Amazon have a clear strategy I dont really see it at Target, IMHO they are trying to do a bit of everything which seldom turns out good. Also from a financial and marketpower point of view i think both Amzon and Walmart are stronger so i just dont see how target could come out as the winner in a fight between these three.

It also has to be said that the concurrence between Walmart and Target and the concurrence between Amazon and Target is more intensive then the concurrence between Walmart and Amazon, so basically Target is fighting a war on two fronts.

 

[Pharaoh]

Target just tanked again 15% today after a super awful quarter. Need to look at the quarterly report to see if it is a buy opportunity or over priced.

People panic all the time and need to time the market. Still think it is a solid company. And I like to buy low and sell high but tanking $20 bucks in 1 month is defiantly alarming.

Wouldn't touch it. If you want to invest in a retailer long term stick to Amazon. Their tech is impressive and their online numbers are still staggering.

 

[crzdcolombian]

Wouldn't touch it. If you want to invest in a retailer long term stick to Amazon. Their tech is impressive and their online numbers are still staggering.

Problem with Amazon is they are going to have to make box stores. They are looking at a few of them which will raise their cost. All other stores price Match and old people don't shop online.also most big states have a Amazon plant so those states have to pay taxes making buying from them less attractive. I was willing to wait 2 days to get a item when I saved 7% sales tax but now that I don't I just go to a box store

Amazon does have its Netflix competion with Prime. I just don't see box stores going away. I know I am maybe 1/100 who just has stores price match Amazon or another online distrutor. Like stores rather make a 10% on something then $0. When Lego Batman came out I took my nephews and they asked for the Batcave. It's $100 at Target but was 85 online+ Target had a $10 Batman coupon. Went to the front desk lady ask for a price match and coupon. Got it for 70 bucks ..... amazon doesn't do that for me. Same at Best Buy or any store in the US

I am going to research it more when I get home and see if it's a long term play or not. That dividend is sexy. But dividends are % so the fact it went down $20 this year means next Qrt dividend will go down. Pretty positive it's % of current price

 

[Pharaoh]

Sorry it's kind of hard to follow your thought process but are you claiming you like Target because of their customer service is superior to Amazon? I mean Amazon has very positive reviews when it comes to customer returns or any sort of support.

Also, long term, Amazon is coming out with stuff that is quite impressive. AmazonGo is the coolest thing I've seen in retail/supermarket tech. Whereas I don't see any improvements longterm coming from Target. Just my two cents.

This is purely on speculation of the future of the company, I have no idea how their dividend payout is or projected to be.

 

[Adriano@10]

Problem with Amazon is they are going to have to make box stores. They are looking at a few of them which will raise their cost. All other stores price Match and old people don't shop online.also most big states have a Amazon plant so those states have to pay taxes making buying from them less attractive. I was willing to wait 2 days to get a item when I saved 7% sales tax but now that I don't I just go to a box store

Amazon does have its Netflix competion with Prime. I just don't see box stores going away. I know I am maybe 1/100 who just has stores price match Amazon or another online distrutor. Like stores rather make a 10% on something then $0. When Lego Batman came out I took my nephews and they asked for the Batcave. It's $100 at Target but was 85 online+ Target had a $10 Batman coupon. Went to the front desk lady ask for a price match and coupon. Got it for 70 bucks ..... amazon doesn't do that for me. Same at Best Buy or any store in the US

I am going to research it more when I get home and see if it's a long term play or not. That dividend is sexy. But dividends are % so the fact it went down $20 this year means next Qrt dividend will go down. Pretty positive it's % of current price

ahh first of all your wrong on the dividends while the dividend yield is based on the stockprice the decision how much dividend is payed out is not made based on stock price and is based on the earnings in the previous year. I.E. the company decides how much of it s profits it s gonna pay out as dividends at least to formulate it in the most simple way so current stock price only determines your dividend yield.

While i agree that box stores wont go away i think they will become way less relevant i the future, i dont see people going into stores to buy standartized products when we can just order them online and save a lot of time. Yes box stores are not gonna go away but at least in the cities they are gonna be smaller and way more concentrated on merch that is not standartized i.e. where the customer wants to touch/see it before he buys it. Which is exactly what Amazon is trying to do have small specialized stores in the cities.

Also while you like the fact that target matches the price of online retailers this in fact ruines them and their profit margin and this exactly is the problem why target IMHO does not have a great future. I mean target has by far the highest cost for their retail space out of Walmart Amazon and target so ofcourse they have smaller margins when they have to sell you stuff at the price that the other two do. Sadly this is mainly a price and convinience battle and Target is losing both to Walmart and Amazon. Also in these last years target has not really shown that they have a sound strategy they are trying to beat them both which seems a hopeless battle instead of finding a niche to operate in.

Note I m not saying they ll go bankrupt through some havy restructuring this could still be turned into a profitable company again but the strategy of being in the city centers(high rent) and at the same time trying to win a price war against Amazon and Walmart just wont work since those two have way lower rent costs and Walmart has way bigger pricing power over it s suppliers. So Imho a big strategy change is necessary.

Again before I do a long term investment the first thing i ask my selfe is: is the company gonna be more relevant in 5/10 years ?
If the answer is yes i start my research if the answer is no i move on. ANd with target there is no way I would answer that question with a yes.

 

[crzdcolombian]

Yea that is the big problem with a lot of stores they don't want to be amazons show room which is killing their margins. Kind of why I have sold most of these stocks. I don't currently hold any target it's just a interesting company. I way to get past the price match is to have excluvie items. The same Samsung tv has a different product code at every store. I mean if you bitch about it the manager might give it to you on price match but that's 1 way to get past it.
Or the more annoying 1 is that it is a slightly different color.
I do own Walmart which I agree is a better play and not being in cities keeps their cost a bit cheaper. Rising minimum wages in the US can def Fk them tho. I just don't see big realtors going away but it really is who is a better buy and long term growth.

 

[Pharaoh]

Good IPO for snapchat today.

 

[Adriano@10]

Good IPO for snapchat today.

Yeah but mainly for the underwriters seeing as the IPO price was 17$ yesterday but the first trade today was at 23.5. ANyways gonna be intresting to see these next days where they are going. I dont see them having much more of an upside for the rest of the year seeing as their IPO was alredy very expensive and they closed 44% up.

One funny/weird fact Snapchat called their company a Camera company in their Prospectus.

 

[crzdcolombian]

A dick pic stock

On of my first investments was Pizer the people who made viagra��

 

[Pharaoh]

I might take a look at Nintendo. All of their tech is quite impressive, and they're always pushing the envelope.

 

[crzdcolombian]

I might take a look at Nintendo. All of their tech is quite impressive, and they're always pushing the envelope.

Nintendo is usually rumored to being bought out. If Samsung or Apple buy them it would be sweet

 

[Adriano@10]

I might take a look at Nintendo. All of their tech is quite impressive, and they're always pushing the envelope.

I m already long on nintendo. Imho the value of their brand is havily underrated if i compare it to for example disney. Also the potential of their mobile games is way underrrated IMHO any small company that drops an app as much downloaded as any of nintendos youd see the stock of the developer at crayze P/E rations which again is not the case at Nintendo, one part is because they refuse to make in game purchases which the investor in me does not like but the gamer in me thinks its brilliant.

On top of that i think that the switch is gonna be the console for Families on a tight budget as well as casual gamers. Unlike the wii you can actually play normal games like FIFA/NBA on very decent quality (I doubt a casual gamer would notice a huge diffence to the same game on a PS/Xbox). Also if you have a family with kids under 14/16 the switch is simply the way to go now that it actually is a complete entertainemnt system. And i would go as far as saying that for every gamer under the age of 14 the switch has the best games with all the marios/pokemon and zelda games. ALso when it comes to family games that you can play on multiplayer the Switch easily beats both the PS and The Xbox.

So I think the Switch is gonna be a big thing for families and casual gamers as well as the nintendo nerds who ll buy any nintendo product anyways. If my prediction is right the switch will be selling quite well and it should help boost nintendos price.

On top of that it seems like nintendos management team is becoming more american i.e they try to push their brand more and they finally decided to give platforms outside of the Nintendo universe a chance by developing games for it.Imho you can see how strong the pull of nintendo brands such as mario and pokemon go is only by looking how many times those two apps got downloaded despite not beeing to great games.
Lets face it everybody who is under 40 and living in the western world probably grew up with mario and co and most of these people will check out products featuring their childhood heros.

The biggest problem here is how long will it take till Nintendo figures out how to monetize on the mobile market once they got this nintendo will become a money making machine.

 

[Pharaoh]

They've had 3 straight wins so far with their latest releases. PokemonGo, Super Mario Run, and now the biggest console release in US history with the Switch. Good for them.

 

[Harpsabu]

How much is the stock sitting at?? Sounds like a good stock to invest in

 

[Pharaoh]

~$215 USD.

- - - Updated - - -

Also LOL snap's stock nose diving already, 2 days after trading. Down 11% this morning. Brutal

 

[Adriano@10]

~$215 USD.

- - - Updated - - -

Also LOL snap's stock nose diving already, 2 days after trading. Down 11% this morning. Brutal

What nintendo trades at 27$ currently!
And the thing about snap is sad the brokers made a shit ton of money by only selling at 24 and now the private investors who were stupid enough to buy at 24 are fucked!

 

[Pharaoh]

Lol I'm an idiot, I was looking at something else haha.