Stocks

[ChillBro]

There is a ton of dry powder in the economy in the USA. Banks wrote down a ton of reserves that they didn't end up needing. Unless there is some unforseen systemic shock, I just don't see where there is the kind of 'softness' to justify such a negative view of the market.

Inflation by far was the biggest concern because that stuff can spiral out of control quickly and really kill everything. All indications now seem like that's getting into control and to honest the cause of the inflation was artificial anyway.

I am biased because I'm a finance lawyer but as long as the financial sector in the USA has money and is willing to lend and hasn't been engaging in irresponsible underwriting, i view the economy as a total juggernaut impervious to anything other than the usual ebbs and flows.

 

[Javier'sSon]

Straight out of @Pimpin handbook

lol not at all, he's a bear too u know and always on my ass to not trade options and I think he might have a point. I was up $60k recently and I have proceeded to lose it all and then some, mainly shorting the fuckin market.

 

[Adriano@10]

There is a ton of dry powder in the economy in the USA. Banks wrote down a ton of reserves that they didn't end up needing. Unless there is some unforseen systemic shock, I just don't see where there is the kind of 'softness' to justify such a negative view of the market.

Inflation by far was the biggest concern because that stuff can spiral out of control quickly and really kill everything. All indications now seem like that's getting into control and to honest the cause of the inflation was artificial anyway.

I am biased because I'm a finance lawyer but as long as the financial sector in the USA has money and is willing to lend and hasn't been engaging in irresponsible underwriting, i view the economy as a total juggernaut impervious to anything other than the usual ebbs and flows.

Things people said in 07....
Like inflation aint solved we re closer to another hike than to a pivot the easiest way to solve inflation would litrally be a mild recession...
hence why the fed wants to see job numbers and payrole numbers go down.
CRE will have to take huge writedowns when refinancing what used to be 0% loans...
People especially the younger ones tend to forget or ignore that we just came from 15 years of basically 0% interest like the last 15 years in the markets have literally been the yolo phase... everything worked as long as interest was low dont believe me go look what happened in 17 when the fed hiked for the first time....
Like again i dont see too much actual econ data that is bullish other than lol numbers go up and some other technical chart indicators which literally is astronomy for investors.
We have credit card and auto loans delinquencies up we have mortgage defaults up.....
Europe is obviously kind of in the shitter and China and Japan have huge fiscal problems.....

On top of that if you d ask any behavioral economist we re seeing all the fucken "animal spirits" behavioral paterns fraud overconfidence and a ton of BS from management that we usually see right around tops...

Also i m not even a huge fucken bear and i kind of agree that 90% of the time bears scream wolf for no reason but to go hey there is no indication of a impending recession when the one most accurate and most robust recession indicator is flashing seems naive. Just like claiming all is good now seems naive when almost every single earnings call mgm was talking about softness/ weak demand. Also this is not a fed critic i think they did more or less what they had to do maybe slightly late but they dd what they had to do....

Also non investors need to understand that being barish does not equal not being invested, it just means that i wont touch any of those high flying idiot names
I ve been probably to barish this year still comfortably beating the market..

Bottom line i just dont see how one can claim there is no data that would justify a barish stace when tehre is more than ample and the FED is still kind of stuck as if shit breaks now they probably cant pivot as that would mean giving up on inflation.

 

[ChillBro]

You are talking about two different things. The market does not equal the economy. I can easily see the argument why investing in specific stocks or industries would benefit from a more bear market approach. I am talking about the overall health of the economy.

There has been talk of a catastrophic recession or depression for quite some time now and it has not really transpired. And why be defensive about it? Goes back to my point that some would rather go around and say 'i was right' then actually concede that too often 'feelings' cloud perceptions of the economy. It is alot like crime in this country - some people just 'feel' it is way worse when the data and actual digging into data may not support that.

Im glad you brought up 2008. I remember it well. Also remember 2001. 2008 was incredible irresponsibility in bank financing that resulted in layers upon layers of financial assets and other factors spiraling out of control. Do you really see any 'systemic' issues or mismanagement on that front now? The fact is that from an economics perspective, the covid-caused economic effects will be studied in colleges and universities for decades. You have to view where we are from that context as well. The market will be cyclical like always but I just dont see the US economy in danger at this point. Inflation was the huge issue and the fed reacted/overreacted well on that front. I am starting to hear even some of my more nervous clients now being much more measured.

Anyway I am not saying there are no warning signs, I am just saying that 'predictions' on the market tend to carry over as 'predictions' on the overall economy and I think that is misguided. Ultimately time will tell if the bear or bull people are right. But i anticipate something happening 5 or 6 years from now and some folks saying 'i told you!' Even thought they have been wrong for nearly a decade.

 

[Pimpin]

There is a ton of dry powder in the economy in the USA. Banks wrote down a ton of reserves that they didn't end up needing. Unless there is some unforseen systemic shock, I just don't see where there is the kind of 'softness' to justify such a negative view of the market.

Inflation by far was the biggest concern because that stuff can spiral out of control quickly and really kill everything. All indications now seem like that's getting into control and to honest the cause of the inflation was artificial anyway.

I am biased because I'm a finance lawyer but as long as the financial sector in the USA has money and is willing to lend and hasn't been engaging in irresponsible underwriting, i view the economy as a total juggernaut impervious to anything other than the usual ebbs and flows.

Sorry to ask but what indication you have that the inflation is under control? Core? Wage growth? A few of them have a single data point if that to show that inflation is under control.

From today's FT

 

[Pimpin]

Im glad you brought up 2008. I remember it well. Also remember 2001. 2008 was incredible irresponsibility in bank financing that resulted in layers upon layers of financial assets and other factors spiraling out of control. Do you really see any 'systemic' issues or mismanagement on that front now?

how fuckign old are you guys?

also no one "sees systemic issues" until after the fact . It took 1960s Friedman to show/explain the great depression.

just to list a few:

1. Mortgage payment are at all time highs, one dip in employment/earnings and shit can go south quick
2. China's asset bubble bursting. China is no longer "local shock". US banks have big exposure.
3. Auto Loans.
4. General indebtness

but yes, stonks go up so all is well

 

[ChillBro]

Sorry to ask but what indication you have that the inflation is under control? Core? Wage growth? A few of them have a single data point if that to show that inflation is under control.

From today's FT

View attachment 9954

I'm speaking just on US metrics - no other country or continent. Nearly every inflation metric in the US is down (i'll check the latest and can share what i'm looking at).

 

[ChillBro]

how fuckign old are you guys?

also no one "sees systemic issues" until after the fact . It took 1960s Friedman to show/explain the great depression.

just to list a few:

1. Mortgage payment are at all time highs, one dip in employment/earnings and shit can go south quick
2. China's asset bubble bursting. China is no longer "local shock". US banks have big exposure.
3. Auto Loans.
4. General indebtness

but yes, stonks go up so all is well

I'm glad you brought up leveraged loans. Again i'm speaking only on US economy - but by and large large corporations are refinancing when they need to. Alot of them were waiting not just on interest rates but also to see what was going to happen to LIBOR succession. I'm also seeing alot of M&A activity start to ramp up so don't be surprised if M&A starts to get hot heading into next year.

Look - there are a ton of data to look at when it comes to the health of the economy. I am totally cool with a measured approach - but what started this whole thing is that too many people try to predict some economic doom in the US - and my only point is I just don't see it. I have yet to see a compelling argument as to why the US economy is in any type of danger.

And you're right that systemic issues aren't identified until later. However, we do have some history on what the systemic issues have been in the past and the US financial system is in a much better regulated position to absorb these hits. When SVB and others tanked, everyone started panicking but it was clear even then that the financial industry generally was totally fine. I stand by that and as long as my boy Jamie is cautiously optimistic, I'm good.

 

[RickyMaravilla'sRightFoot]

Thinking of tossing a small bet on Peloton for some pocket change sometime in the next year. Should I wait? Pass?

 

[brehme1989]

Thinking of tossing a small bet on Peloton for some pocket change sometime in the next year. Should I wait? Pass?

If it's a bet, go ahead and do whatever your gut tells you.

If it's an investment of a significant amount of your wealth/cash, there are better ways to do it.

 

[RickyMaravilla'sRightFoot]

If it's a bet, go ahead and do whatever your gut tells you.

If it's an investment of a significant amount of your wealth/cash, there are better ways to do it.

Nah just a few hundred dollar bet. It's so turbulent I think I can sell on a swing soon enough.

 

[Pimpin]

I'm glad you brought up leveraged loans. Again i'm speaking only on US economy - but by and large large corporations are refinancing when they need to. Alot of them were waiting not just on interest rates but also to see what was going to happen to LIBOR succession. I'm also seeing alot of M&A activity start to ramp up so don't be surprised if M&A starts to get hot heading into next year.

Look - there are a ton of data to look at when it comes to the health of the economy. I am totally cool with a measured approach - but what started this whole thing is that too many people try to predict some economic doom in the US - and my only point is I just don't see it. I have yet to see a compelling argument as to why the US economy is in any type of danger.

And you're right that systemic issues aren't identified until later. However, we do have some history on what the systemic issues have been in the past and the US financial system is in a much better regulated position to absorb these hits. When SVB and others tanked, everyone started panicking but it was clear even then that the financial industry generally was totally fine. I stand by that and as long as my boy Jamie is cautiously optimistic, I'm good.

Oh I agree, but I think the whole group here, myself included are bullish for the US and the overall bearishness is on EU.
None of us are doomers, our "bearishness" was from people here who yolo'd their life savings on 90x sales shitcos previous 2-3 years.

 

[Pimpin]

can someone please stop me from throwing money at 23andme.

@Adriano @brehme please stop me

 

[Adriano@10]

can someone please stop me from throwing money at 23andme.

@Adriano @brehme please stop me

I think i already tried....
Honestly dont know enough but on first glance very much looks like a shitco...
It all depends on wether mgm is full of shit or not and i m not familiar enough with em

 

[Adriano@10]

Oh I agree, but I think the whole group here, myself included are bullish for the US and the overall bearishness is on EU.
None of us are doomers, our "bearishness" was from people here who yolo'd their life savings on 90x sales shitcos previous 2-3 years.

Bro speak for your selfe.... The fuck i m bullish on US stocks?
I m pretty much neutral when it comes to the US... Yield curve and most Q2 earning calls make me cautious...
But i do think if we re going down it ll probably be a slow grind.


In other news the SEC is finally going after ryan cohen and his BBBY dealings fucken finally

 

[Pimpin]

Bro speak for your selfe.... The fuck i m bullish on US stocks?
I m pretty much neutral when it comes to the US... Yield curve and most Q2 earning calls make me cautious...
But i do think if we re going down it ll probably be a slow grind.


In other news the SEC is finally going after ryan cohen and his BBBY dealings fucken finally

Well you may not be bullish but not a doomer. When the banks were folding iirc u kept saying its limited to silly banks who made rookie mistakes ie mismanage bond maturities.
But yes

 

[Adriano@10]

Fuck adam jonas has to be the least competent analyst there fucken is...
Yet the market reacts every god damn time when he puts out one of his reports which are entirly living in fucken dream land........
Only good thin agbout that report is that MS disclosed their fucken conflict of interest....
Imagine writing shit like tesla is gonna be better at being nvidia then fucken nvidia....
Sad part is when it colapses this fucker will keep his job and his bonuses and most people will forget about it...

 

[Adriano@10]

So barclays sees another 0.25 raise in interest rates and thinks we re edging closer to a soft landing...

 

[Adriano@10]

LOL so much for the pivot is right around the corner love these macro experts......Also mostly the same ones who were celebrating the pivot back in Feb, it would be really embarrassing if they did not make these shitty predictions in order to sell something..

In other news i cannot believe the US did not refill their SPR when prices were tanking... Yes they re probably gonna go back to 60ish at some point but right now looks like a huge missed chance.

Also why should i not buy DIS? Yeah still kind of expensive but it s freaking DIS and most of the value lose imho is based on some idiotic mosty political narrative. Not like they dont own the fucken entertainent industry any more.

 

[Javier'sSon]

You absolutely should buy DIS, I just exited my position yesterday so it's bound to fly.