Man fucking cluster fuck if they cut rates cause of a couple of shitty run banks and VCs not knowing what risk mgm means.
Few thoughts on CS though now that most of the info is out there. First of i think the deal with the UBS was pretty much the only way to go as a solution needed to be found fast and i think there was pressure from the US and the EU to not only bail out the swiss retail Bank but bail out all of CS as CS was amongst the (10-15) Financial institutions considered TBTF for International markets. So i guess a solution had to be found where the international business of CS can be carried on only institution in switzerland that would be able to do it and do it fast is UBS. I also assume that this is the reason UBS got such a good price and so many concessions when it comes to downside protection.
Also let me empathise again that with out the SVB debacle CS would not have needed to be saved. CS was being closely monitored by finma and snb since october, but while outflows have not stopped, they we re much lower than in october and were manageable until SVB happened and fear spread. Withdrawals obviously spiked dramatically and that was basically the nail i the coffin of CS. Of course communication of both CS and PIF did not help.
All this makes it even weirder to now see US investors shit on finma and the swiss regulators.. yes i was surprised when i saw cocos were 0 out, but i made one call and friend told me wtf your on about it s in the prospectus and on CS website, so i go and double check and there it is written in plain fucken english, so who ever complains about losses from the AT1s well he did not fucken read what he invested in.
Moving on what baffles me is that we were talking for 15 years now about ring fencing our banks so that when a tbtf bank fails we can just cut/sell off all the non retail facing non CH business and the tbtf swiss retail arm would carry on. Now despite changing regulations and forcing banks to make contingency plans for this we did not even consider doing this. Which seems extremely weird to me, and the only explanation for me is that as i said earlier the us and the EU pressured us into not only saving the swiss retail part of CS, and our politicians did not wanna sell these parts of to foreign entities or there were 0 bids. But it is the only somewhat logical explanation why regulation that has been pushed on banks for the last 15 years now does not get used even though it was drafted exactly for this. The many concessions of the snb towards teh UBS and the low price they got make me think this is indeed the case cause UBS obviously got a massive bargain and many of the risks sit with the SNB/swiss tax payers.
Now this brings me to what worries me the most in this whole banking shitshow that we are seeing right now and that is a lack of bids. I was expecting buyers to come in a lot faster and a lot hotter on both svb and CS but pretty much nothing thus far. Like CS got sold at a bargain price with huuge guarantees. still no bids for SVB other than the UK arm which was sold for 1 pound....
Now this might be the few big boys with solid BS waiting for absolute bargain prices knowing that the fed will step in to avoid a disaster or this might be the banks them selfes seeing the problem clearer and knowing this is a big one.
ANyways imho not the moment to blindly buy bank stocks... yes initial reaction was positive but depending on what the fed says shit may break loos again later today.