How likely is our debts (oaktree & others) lead to bankruptcy?
Bankruptcy as in Inter being wound up as an asset, fire sold, and properly going bankrupt like Fiorentina, Parma, etc did and having to be refounded?
I very much doubt it, but I wouldnt categorically say its 0%. I'd say its probably like, 1-3%, very small world possibility stuff but not entirely off the realm of feasible. Like, "auditors should mention it as a risk, but its not one anyone really expects to materialise".
Irrespective of whether our rumoured price is 1 billion including debt or 1 billion excluding debt, there's clearly at least some perceived net equity in the business. Recurring revenues, Serie A rights, etc - if you stripped out player base and reduced cost to cover 500 mil in debt, there's probably still a few hundred mil in net equity in the business (I'd guess?). Clearly owning our own stadium would be transformational, but alas
A default on the loans, leading to creditors being awarded Inter? To me, right now, that feels pretty damn likely. I dont see the willpower from Zhang to sell the club really - it's hard to say if its just a general lack of demand for Inter [irrespective of the buying price, you'd still have to inject like a bunch of cash to right the ship, then OpEx we need like 100m a year injection just to cover the baseline running of the business], Serie A [lets be blunt, its a stale league that isn't going anywhere anytime soon], or if it's their unreasonable price.
I really struggle to see how Zhang can get themselves out of this mess - it would, probably, take some unbelievable soar of Suning's stock market performance, paying out major dividends to shareholders - they're still heavily loss making, so they're a long way from being able to do anything of the scale required. It'd also need a change in CCCP policy, which feels extremely unlikely at the moment especially after the Russian-Ukranian war and the resulting sanctions on Russian wealth overseas. Or significant existing overseas assets, which as far as I know, they dont have either. With some amazing deals (eg sponsorship, reducing player costs a bit), they might be able to solve the "inter loses money every year" problem, but then you have the pile of debt question to address as well. And to achieve that while keeping a competitive team (which obviously links to sponsorship, prize money, TV revenue, etc) is damn hard.
Honest view - either a sale at a discounted price (anything that's above the loan fees is some kind of net cash to Zhang), or Oaktree taking us over feel the most likely. The question, though, is why would Oaktree want to take over Inter? Running a sporting club isn't really their pedigree as far as I'm aware, infact I'd love to even know if their business model is to, for companies they own, bring in their own management team etc. From a quick browse on their wikipedia page it looks like they do sometimes take full ownership, but rarely, they're more of a joint venture company.
All that being said, I said the same things about Elliott and Lee and that's exactly what happened there.