Stocks

[K.I.]

Just looking at American Airlines short Interest there is ur answer, it was at a low of 8 dollars 52w low and had short interest of 300M every month since then, u get rebound buying plus, a stock bubble and targeted attacks on shorted stocks u get stocks rising significantly.

Bubbles dont care about financials or fundamentals, that something thats been happening with Bitcoin as well, it was shorted all the way down to 3K and even now its still being shorted.

One thing to know about shorts is that they will get their money back on the way down, so stocks that have garbage finances will be the first ones to fall once the bubble pops.

 

[.h.]

It's prob buying ahead of news that more restrictions will be lifted, more travel will happen and also because a lot more people are investing in the stock market than before along with more buys towards shorted stocks as well, it's a combination of things, pick your reason.

and you can fucking guarantee the first 12 months of them will be flying at 100% load out as everyone is desperate to get away. Plus they've also massively trimmed costs

 

[Adriano@10]

and you can fucking guarantee the first 12 months of them will be flying at 100% load out as everyone is desperate to get away. Plus they've also massively trimmed costs

i call bs on this we re gonna be below 2019 passengers levels.....
international travell will still need some time to get back to pre covid levels due to different time lines in different countries and business travel will also be below pre covid levels. We might see a huge 2 weeks of travel or even a month but not a spectacular quarter.....
also yes people got free money but we still got huge unemployment nit sure those people willl spend their stimulus on flights

 

[.h.]

from a volume of passengers perspective, yeah, you're absolutely right. Lots ofp lanes have been taken out of commission

but in terms of load - which (AFAIK) is one of the key drivers for profitability? I'd expect load to be higher than probably it has ever been. Like I said, as well, huge amounts of cost cutting as well. BA managed to force through loads of contract changes to reduce pay, benefits, etc for example.

 

[Pimpin]

what levels should i start looking at snowlake anyone?

 

[Adriano@10]

from a volume of passengers perspective, yeah, you're absolutely right. Lots ofp lanes have been taken out of commission

but in terms of load - which (AFAIK) is one of the key drivers for profitability? I'd expect load to be higher than probably it has ever been. Like I said, as well, huge amounts of cost cutting as well. BA managed to force through loads of contract changes to reduce pay, benefits, etc for example.

Your correct on the load but lets not forget that they got more debt to serve, also i m not sure how far the cost cuttings can be taken over as in a full plane will still cost as much to fly as it cost pre covid. Plus they will still have a lot of planes sitting in hangars empty not flying anywhere.....
I guess will see but i would not expect them to be profitable especially not across the industry one or two might have great Qs but i guess for the whole industry 21 is still gonna suck...

what levels should i start looking at snowlake anyone?

Priced them at 180 max pre IPO, have not looked at them in depth since them though....
Thing is even at 180 they trade above their own TAM estimate of 2025 (i think might have been 23), which just seems weird to me. Yes they are a great company yes they re in a hot sector but they re not the only ones......
On top of that i still think we re in a late bull market and not the beginning of one, so cant get my selfe to buy those super high P/e stocks...
Also this is probably useless feedback

 

[Pimpin]

That was helpful actually, I know dick about snowlfake and have not done homework. Also, loving the Volkswagen mooning .

 

[Adriano@10]

That was helpful actually, I know dick about snowlfake and have not done homework. Also, loving the Volkswagen mooning .

Sadly i started selling down my VW stake at 250 still holding a tiny bit though but dumped mst of it at 300...

Also have you guys seen the whole Ride (lordstown motors) debacle the EV space is full of fucken fraudsters Ride CEO somwhen last nov/dez We ve got 100k orders these are serious orders
Ride ceo today i dont think anyone thought we had actual orders fucken clown show...

Also SEC apparently showed up at Michal Burry s office for his tweets showing once again what a joke they are... Dude is critical of BTC Tesla and co and gets a visit while Musk pomp and saylor pump markets relentlessly with no repercussions......
Also prety sure i posted a longer take on SNOW somewhere in this tread....

 

[Pimpin]

https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target-2/


Ark's updated price target on tesla..

 

[Harpsabu]

https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target-2/


Ark's updated price target on tesla..

Wow. Sounds like a buy

 

[brehme1989]

Wow. Sounds like a buy

Cathie Wood and Tesla = BFFE :heart:

 

[Adriano@10]

https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target-2/


Ark's updated price target on tesla..

most ridicuolse analysis i ve ever seen it s like a 12 year old wrote it...
check out the assumptions for the insurance business and the ride hailing......
Not sure how any sef respecting analyst can sign on to this

 

[Pajo]

I have no idea of how stocks work, and whats lowest gamble to get, here at least. So I got a question for Pimpin

We want to buy some shares, what do you think is the best macedonian company to invest in? Most stable with tendency to grow. We were thinking of Alkaloid, my wife works there, they have had the most stable stocks for ages around here.

Another idea which I'm sceptic of, a friend told me he plans to invest in MyWorld. (https://corporate.myworld.com/) The word is that MyWorld plans to go on the market in couple of years, and has some kind of promotion, if you buy some kind of loyalty voucher, you can use it for discount on their web shops and partners, but get stocks in the holding/company as well. Told him it looks like a scam to me, so that they buy that voucher, but made me think about it, kind of.

 

[.h.]

why invest in one company? Why not a passive index tracker?

 

[Pimpin]

I have no idea of how stocks work, and whats lowest gamble to get, here at least. So I got a question for Pimpin

We want to buy some shares, what do you think is the best macedonian company to invest in? Most stable with tendency to grow. We were thinking of Alkaloid, my wife works there, they have had the most stable stocks for ages around here.

Another idea which I'm sceptic of, a friend told me he plans to invest in MyWorld. (https://corporate.myworld.com/) The word is that MyWorld plans to go on the market in couple of years, and has some kind of promotion, if you buy some kind of loyalty voucher, you can use it for discount on their web shops and partners, but get stocks in the holding/company as well. Told him it looks like a scam to me, so that they buy that voucher, but made me think about it, kind of.

I would steer way clear of MyWorld or any of those multi-level marketing schemes. I do not know much about MyWorld but from a 10 second pitch from a friend, there was 12 red flags.

On macedonian companies, my two favorites would be Alkaloid (they have a lot of things going for them) and Komercijalna - for me the best ran bank in Macedonia and the best dividend stock.

Alkaloid is a tad more expensive trading at 17.5 times their earnings and most of their success priced in. This is expensive on Macedonia terms, where the average price of MBI10 is 13.84 times earnings. I also see here that Alkaloid's p/e has been growing from 13.5 in 2018, to 17.5 2021. That means the stock price grew at a faster pace than its profits. From what I remember reading their annual report, I think it said that the bulk of their growth came from their consumer sector. It also produces generics, while it can dominate our region, it may have limited growth unless something unexpected arises. But as your wife works there, she may know alot more than me, so she may justify the premium on it.

On the other hand Komercijalna trades at 9 times their earnings, and has a dividend yield upwards of 7% should the central bank allow them to give dividend. It is very inexpensive and IMO the best ran bank.

Both of them are very stable, great balance sheets and will provide steady income combined with reasonable growth. The MBI10 is not a bad choice either, but again I do not know much about the local market. It's inexpensive compared to developed world valuations, but expensive compared to other emerging/comparable economies.

 

[Pajo]

why invest in one company? Why not a passive index tracker?

No idea, finance and investing are totally out of my knowledge. We did invest along with some private health insurance, which invests in dozens of european companies (with help of https://www.wvp.at/) . But we also want (not too much money) to invest in one particular company (like Alkaloid) who is stable in our country and easy to sell stocks.

And another thing is the MyWorld stuff. Dunno if it's worth it.

 

[.h.]

No idea, finance and investing are totally out of my knowledge. We did invest along with some private health insurance, which invests in dozens of european companies (with help of https://www.wvp.at/) . But we also want (not too much money) to invest in one particular company (like Alkaloid) who is stable in our country and easy to sell stocks.

And another thing is the MyWorld stuff. Dunno if it's worth it.

If you invest in an individual company, you're always liable to feel the volatility of their performance - e.g. buying Enron is a bad idea.

Personally, ~2/3rds of my portfolio is invested in passive index trackers - they buy a small % of every company, so whilst returns are more moderate, risk is MUCH MUCH smaller. In fact on a long term basis, passively managed money outperforms actively managed money (in terms of what you can predict up front).


I dont know what products are available in Macedonia, but i'd look at things like Vanguard Life Strategy or Vanguard All-Cap if you can find them. Basically the simple way to think of it is you buy a very small % of the whole world, so as global GDP increases (which it will do), your % goes up. Buyings hares in any individual company is risky because companies inherently go bust.


The other 34% of my portfolio is actively managed money where i've done really well to date, but the point of this portfolio is to guarantee that I'm rich when I retire.

 

[Pimpin]

No idea, finance and investing are totally out of my knowledge. We did invest along with some private health insurance, which invests in dozens of european companies (with help of https://www.wvp.at/) . But we also want (not too much money) to invest in one particular company (like Alkaloid) who is stable in our country and easy to sell stocks.

And another thing is the MyWorld stuff. Dunno if it's worth it.

I would have to second Browha on this, ETF's are better long term. Check this ETF, I added it not long ago

https://www.ishares.com/us/literatu...ionary-spending-etf-fund-fact-sheet-en-us.pdf

If you invest in an individual company, you're always liable to feel the volatility of their performance - e.g. buying Enron is a bad idea.

Personally, ~2/3rds of my portfolio is invested in passive index trackers - they buy a small % of every company, so whilst returns are more moderate, risk is MUCH MUCH smaller. In fact on a long term basis, passively managed money outperforms actively managed money (in terms of what you can predict up front).


I dont know what products are available in Macedonia, but i'd look at things like Vanguard Life Strategy or Vanguard All-Cap if you can find them. Basically the simple way to think of it is you buy a very small % of the whole world, so as global GDP increases (which it will do), your % goes up. Buyings hares in any individual company is risky because companies inherently go bust.


The other 34% of my portfolio is actively managed money where i've done really well to date, but the point of this portfolio is to guarantee that I'm rich when I retire.

Greggs not looking too bad now huh

 

[.h.]

tbh I sold out on Greggs a few months ago. Moved my money into Ocado, which tanked in the mean time

my portfolio is only like 1% off the all time high now though.

 

[Pajo]

I would have to second Browha on this, ETF's are better long term. Check this ETF, I added it not long ago

https://www.ishares.com/us/literatu...ionary-spending-etf-fund-fact-sheet-en-us.pdf

It seems similar to what I did with https://www.wvp.at. It's long term investment, not for now, but if my projection is right, we made a good call.