Champions League 2009/2010

[CafeCordoba]

They weren't that low. They were at least 40% in every betting companies lists.

 

[rsz85]

56.16%

How did you count it?

How musch cance did you give Arsenal to reach semi against Barca, and how much chance for MU to reach final?

 

[dynasty27]

How sure is it that Inter can be put in the top 8 teams at the draw neyt season?

 

[rsz85]

How sure is it that Inter can be put in the top 8 teams at the draw neyt season?

If 3 team of this 4 (Liverpool, Sevilla, Werder, Lyon) can't reach the CL, we will be automatically drawn form POT 1 in the group-stage

We have chance, but if 2 of them reach CL-spot, we are fucked.

 

[dynasty27]

ok thanks. right now we still have chances...

 

[CafeCordoba]

I made some research in that matter which can be seen at the previous page. I don't see Sevilla failing to compete for the spot against Mallorca so I count them in. Liverpool is in tough spot and they probably won't make it. Werder has got better but they are still 5 points behind 3rd seed Leverkusen.

Then in France..

1

Bordeaux 28 17 5 6 46 23 23 56
2

Montpellier 30 17 5 8 41 34 7 56
3

Auxerre 30 16 8 6 30 24 6 56
4

Lille 30 16 6 8 56 32 24 54
5

Lyon 30 15 9 6 49 31 18 54
6

Marseille 28 15 8 5 50 30 20 53

Two will qualify directly, one will go to qualifications. Marseille probably makes it with their two matches in hand so one of Montpellier, Auxerre and Lille should play good end season to beat Lyon. The hope is Lyon will beat Bordeaux in the CL tie and reach semis so that their concentration is disturbed.

There are some matches between Lyon and the top4. There are Bordeaux-Lyon, Lyon-Lille, Montpellier-Lyon and Lyon-Auxerre left to be played. It would be important that at least one of those three in addition to Bordeux will beat Lyon.

Other option is also that Bordeux beats Lyon twice in the CL and Inter wins and draws (minimum) against CSKA. Or Lyon can draw one but go out and Inter win CSKA twice. That way we can get ahead of Lyon in Team ranking.

 

[Gano]

All matches for Sevilla are easy ones except Barca and Atletico Madrid at home. So it's up to them to finish 4th.

Werder has 6 remaining matches. Some of them are really tough. For instance Borussia, Schalke and Wolfsburg away and Hamburg at home. Meanwhile, Leverkusen has only two tough matches: Bayern at home and Stuttgart away. Personally, I wouldn't bet on Werder finishing 4th.

In EPL there are three contenders for 4th place: City, Spurs and Pool.
4. Spurs 31 games played 58 pts
5. City 31 games played 56 pts
6. Pool 32 games played 54 pts
Pool will have to play Chelsea at home and Birmingham away. With their current form (no Lucas in the centre ) they can win 'easy' matches. So, if we think that Pool will lose to Chelsea, draw with Birmingham and will win all other matches, they will finish with 67 points. It means that Spurs need to win all their 3 let's say 'easy' matches: Burnley, Bolton, Sunderland; and get 1 point from other four (City, ManUtd, Chelsea, Arsenal).

 

[Alex de Large]

I got your 3 (against cska, semis and final against manu) numbers and then divide into 1.

 

[CafeCordoba]

How much chance we have for winning CL?

Beating CSKA probably 80 %, than we have either Arsenal (50% for us) or Barca (25% for us) than beating MU (45% for us)

So in total, how much?

With these percentages...
CSKA 80% (0.80)
Barcelona 25% (0.25) / Arsenal 50% (0.50)
ManU 45 % (0.45)

..odds for winning the CL for Inter are as follow:

CSKA->Barcelona
0.80 * 0.25 = 0.20

(CSKA->Barcelona)->ManU
0.20 * 0.45 = 0.09 => 9 %

---------------------------

CSKA->Arsenal
0.80 * 0.50 = 0.40

(CSKA->Arsenal)->ManU
0.40 * 0.45 = 0.18 => 18 %

 

[Pajo]

Aston Villa are contenders as well, maybe even Everton who is in great form...

 

[CafeCordoba]

Yeah, that looks like a big chance for Spurs to get that CL spot. Worst case scenario for Spurs is that Liverpool wins Birmingham and draws Chelsea. Hopefully Spurs or ManCity can do it.

 

[Pajo]

Hopefully.. I also wanna see Spurs in the CL, i have respect for them... Or Man City, bun only because of Mancini, not for any other reason... Just please no Liverpool, i want the "big four" broken, especially when we have the chance of signing Gerrard...

I wanted Villa to qualify though, they still have chances IMO... but small chances..

 

[Dylan]

Money's on Spurs to qualify.
Love if they did. I only supported them jokingly to piss off Arsenal bandwagons in '04 etc but I can't seem to shake them off.

 

[Handoyo]

Random question: Did daylight saving time just kicked in? (Or taken out?) Cos 20:45 CET matches is usually 02:45 am here in Indonesia but tonight the Bayern - Man Utd match is at 01:45 am.

Thanks.

 

[szogo]

Yep it was at the last weekend.

 

[Kraits]

With these percentages...
CSKA 80% (0.80)
Barcelona 25% (0.25) / Arsenal 50% (0.50)
ManU 45 % (0.45)

..odds for winning the CL for Inter are as follow:

CSKA->Barcelona
0.80 * 0.25 = 0.20

(CSKA->Barcelona)->ManU
0.20 * 0.45 = 0.09 => 9 %

---------------------------

CSKA->Arsenal
0.80 * 0.50 = 0.40

(CSKA->Arsenal)->ManU
0.40 * 0.45 = 0.18 => 18 %

Good one

 

[Gano]

Aston Villa are contenders as well, maybe even Everton who is in great form...

Well, they still have some chances, but now Villa needs a perfect run. And after Chelsea destroyed them, IMHO their attitude is broken.

 

[dynasty27]

so all this means that we cannot affect whether we will be in the 1st pot or not? even of we'll win the triple?

 

[jmaster]

1-0 for Man Utd. 1st minute!!

 

[Dylan]

Hahahah 1-0 Rooney.