Using this:
https://eminga.github.io/cldraw/
It looks like we need to hope Liverpool annihilates Napoli by at least 4 goals at Anfield to secure the group win as that will push odds for getting City as R16 opponent several percetage-points lower. The downside is Liverpool becomes an option for us then. They've had a poor season but they could be deadly in CL encounters.
Of course there are so many variables still but this is funny little game at this point. I consider Sporting the favourite to win the insane group D where every club has a chance to win it and 3/4 can end up dead last (Tottenham can end up 1-3). PSG-Benfica is pretty 50-50, maybe? Brugge-Porto is pretty open also.