Thohir's Options: Should he sack Mazzarri?

[Bluenine]

I am surprised to see fans (who had supported the hiring of a particular coach) want the coach sacked in 6 months. It happened with Strama, now Mazzarri... Does it ever make sense? Perhaps in 2 scenarios it may make sense to change a coach mid-season in his first season:

1. If you are in danger of relegation. Which we are not.

2. If its looking like the club will miss out on their season's objective (eg: CL qualification), and its still possible to achieve it. Lets face it, we are already out of that race.

So lets get this out of the way, a mid-season change in coach for Inter at the moment would be a silly thing to do. Because there is no incentive for it (see above), and there are some dis-incentives, namely:

1. Cost: The cost of breaking a contract is directly proportional to the length of the remaining contract - ie, the earlier you sack a coach, the more you pay. Or in practical terms, we will anyway have to pay Mazzarri for the remaining months this season.

2. Chaos: Self explanatory, we know what happens when you change the tactics/direction every 6 months.

3. Options: We will have much better options for new coach at the end of the season than in mid-season. Specially in a world cup year.

While I was never in favour of hiring Mazzarri in the first place, even I will admit that sacking him mid-season is not a sensible option. IMO Thohir has two sensible options, and it depends on his vision and financial appetite which one is best:

Option 1: The Expensive Way
-> Hire Top Coach this summer
-> Give him a big budget to get 3-4 quality players
-> Target CL qualification next season to boost revenues in 2015-16

If Thohir has the funds to support our losses for 2-3 years, this is a faster way to success. This summer, we will have a lot of players who will be out of contract, creating space in the wage bill. We will also have some quality players and coaches available after the World Cup. Technically, we can re-invest the savings to get a top coach, and a 3-4 quality players, and aim for CL qualification next season. This would mean that Inter will take at least 2-3 years to become a profitable club (assuming our revenues do increase with CL and Thohir's far east marketing), and Thohir will have to make good our losses till then. The danger here is that we will be walking a fine line with FFP and risk getting thrown out of Europe. So the pluses and minuses of this strategy are as follows:

+ Shorter path to success
+ Earlier CL qualification
+ Easier to market Inter abroad
- Bigger risk of failure
- Expensive, FFP risk

Option 2: The Hard Way
-> Focus on cutting wage bill / operating costs in next 2 years
-> Keep Mazzarri for the time being
-> Build gradually

Use this summer to cut our wage bill and reduce our operating costs in line with our declining revenues. Then build gradually - increase revenues, improve squad, increase competitiveness - all step by step. Focus every transfer window on buying just 1-2 quality players. It may take 2 seasons to qualify for the CL, a slow and painful period for fans. But with financial prudence, we could start to break-even financially in a season or two. Marketing the club far east will be tougher, but can be done (buy some asian youth talents, etc). The quality of our squad could improve gradually, in line with our revenue growth. In 2-3 years once our revenue has grown and we qualify for CL, we could again become a club which can challenge for silverware. And that would be the time we hire a top coach and spend some big money. The pluses and minuses of this approach:

+ Economically more prudent, link expenditure to revenues
+ FFP compliant
+ Less risk of failure - longer period to correct mistakes
- Will be unpopular with fans
- Will take longer to challenge for silverware
- Will be harder (and take longer) to increase revenues

There will be huge implementation challenges in either option, though less financial risk in option 2.

To summarize:
1. Firing Mazzarri mid-season (specially when we have no chance of making the CL) makes no sense at all.
2. Thohir needs to decide his strategy, and commit to it.
3. Either way, we need to get our implementation right to succeed - it won't be easy to get back to where we were.

 

[Alan]

But building gradually wont work with Mazzarri as coach since he doesn't play our youngsters? We will just end up like a midtable team with youngsters on bench and Vidic-aged people on field.

 

[JJandMateo]

:slick: :slick: :slick:

 

[JJM]

what I would do:It's simple sack WM in the summmer now matter what...but we will then again start at the begining.If WM will be replaced it has to be done right.He should be replaced by a coach who has balls to play Kova over Kuz,Icardi over Milito(oh yeah he won't be here next season anyway).WM is a moron for playing almost departed players over the future players from the start.

Taider or Kova over Kuz
Icardi over Milito
...

what is ET probably thinking: We could also see WM stay if he reaches the EL...if he fails he is done here.Also there are reports that ET isn't happy with WM playing Kuz and Milito over Kova and Icardi and has asked WM to "take a look at that"

 

[Y&h]

I just what him to take serious actions regarding the manager that match the emotions behind the faces he makes during match games.

 

[Wings]

There's a couple flaws with your approach...

First off, why is Option 1 necessarily higher risk? By virtue of hiring a 'top coach,' we're assuring ourselves of a greater chance of success. Do you mean a coach who fits the project?

Second, why is Option 2 less risk? I don't think having Mazzarri is any assurance of gradual CL qualification or CL qualification at all. Especially not while cutting wage budgets. This is a guy who demanded a €15m veteran during the winter transfer window. And he still can't do jackshit with our squad. What makes you think cutting costs will make the task any easier for him?

I don't think the options you've presented are the ones in reality. What we've done in the past is a combination of the two approaches: 3-4 quality players (read: washed-up veterans) for instant CL qualification (Option 1) and a 'caretaker coach' of sorts to tide us over until we get back to CL (Option 2), after which we've assumed we'll start our 'youth project.'

 

[ScottishInterista]

ill be honest... If WM stays another year with his shitty as tactics i may consider killing myself

 

[Bluenine]

There's a couple flaws with your approach...

First off, why is Option 1 necessarily higher risk? By virtue of hiring a 'top coach,' we're assuring ourselves of a greater chance of success. Do you mean a coach who fits the project?

Second, why is Option 2 less risk? I don't think having Mazzarri is any assurance of gradual CL qualification or CL qualification at all. Especially not while cutting wage budgets. This is a guy who demanded a €15m veteran during the winter transfer window. And he still can't do jackshit with our squad. What makes you think cutting costs will make the task any easier for him?

I don't think the options you've presented are the ones in reality. What we've done in the past is a combination of the two approaches: 3-4 quality players (read: washed-up veterans) for instant CL qualification (Option 1) and a 'caretaker coach' of sorts to tide us over until we get back to CL (Option 2), after which we've assumed we'll start our 'youth project.'

Option 1 is higher risk because:

- FFP Risk: It needs far more money, which our revenues cannot support. We will be walking a fine line with UEFA.
- Financial Risk: We invest far more money, which means there is a bigger financial risk if things don't turn out. For example, there is no guarantee that this top coach will succeed. This model assumes we will make it to CL, the financial implications of not qualifying will be very severe.

Option 2 is less risk because we would be focusing on reducing costs and making Inter viable as a business first. Also, our sporting ambitions should be proportionately be lower - ie the coach will get 2-3 seasons to try for the CL spot. In option 1, if we don't make it to the CL, it would spell disaster.

Not saying that Option 2 is better. It depends on ET's risk appetite and his financial strength which one suits him best. I am just stating the 2 possible approaches we could take.

 

[Joshua Lewis]

Sack now WM so he has time to find a new job ( if exists someone so stupid to hire this loser) and he won't steal next year salary

 

[Bluenine]

Sack now WM so he has time to find a new job ( if exists someone so stupid to hire this loser) and he won't steal next year salary

That is not how contracts work, my friend. If Inter sack Mazzarri now, he will still be under our rolls for the remaining 18 months of his contract. Most likely, he will go on "paid leave" for the remainder of the season, and ask for a settlement at the end of this season. So whatever we do, we are going to pay him his full salary for this season, and at least most of his next season's salary.

Which is why Coaches should be hired very carefully, and once hired, they should be shown considerable trust.

 

[Jerry]

This is a guy who demanded a €15m veteran during the winter transfer window. And he still can't do jackshit with our squad.

Inter's record with Hernanes on the pitch is 2-0-0

 

[Wings]

You'll have to excuse me for not being entirely convinced (I'm holding off complete judgment until the end) yet when those wins have been against Sassuolo and a neutered Fiorentina.

And the bigger point is that Mazzarri isn't just going to gradually qualify us to CL while cutting the budget at the same time.

- - - Updated - - -

That is not how contracts work, my friend. If Inter sack Mazzarri now, he will still be under our rolls for the remaining 18 months of his contract. Most likely, he will go on "paid leave" for the remainder of the season, and ask for a settlement at the end of this season. So whatever we do, we are going to pay him his full salary for this season, and at least most of his next season's salary.

Which is why Coaches should be hired very carefully, and once hired, they should be shown considerable trust.

But the payoff from firing Mazzarri and hiring a better coach sets up for better returns in the future. In that case I would easily fire Mazzarri this summer.

Mazzarri is no guarantee of CL football, even in a couple years' time. Mazzarri was actually the 'top coach' who was supposed to lead us back to the CL instantly, à la option 1.

 

[Icardi9]

Kicking of WM depends on who would be his replacement ! if Semioni is the one whos coming or even klupp , HELL YEAH !
But replacing him with an Okay coach wouldn't make a significant deference : ) !
WM's flaws are crystal clear , 1- His stupid ( Outdated ) formation, 2- His disregard to the youth ! which is the core of ET plan 3- He doesn't realize that his the Manager of INTER ! which reflected on the players confidence !
The solution is simple , ET can talk to WM ( as he mention couple of days ago ) and see where its going with him , if he doesnt agree on playing with a good formation 4 defenders and start to make Kova and Icardi crucial parts on the team , sacking him is the done thing ..

 

[Bluenine]

And the bigger point is that Mazzarri isn't just going to gradually qualify us to CL while cutting the budget at the same time.

I am not going to argue with you here, because this is exactly what I said when we were hiring Mazzarri.

But the idea behind option 2 is focusing on cost reduction over the next year or two. We will probably not qualify for CL next season in this option, no matter who is coaching us. So if we go for this option, why waste money in sacking Mazzarri when his contract runs out in 2015 anyways. We can hire a top coach in 2015 when our financial situation is better, and he can aim to qualify us for the CL.

I am also not saying this option is better than Option 1. I think both options can work, and both have serious implementation challenges, and only Thohir can choose which option he can support.

 

[Redbullsnation]

Uhh..no. And don't ever talk about "Simeone". If AM wins the La Liga this season, he's staying...

 

[Nyall]

I am not going to argue with you here, because this is exactly what I said when we were hiring Mazzarri.

But the idea behind option 2 is focusing on cost reduction over the next year or two. We will probably not qualify for CL next season in this option, no matter who is coaching us. So if we go for this option, why waste money in sacking Mazzarri when his contract runs out in 2015 anyways. We can hire a top coach in 2015 when our financial situation is better, and he can aim to qualify us for the CL.

I am also not saying this option is better than Option 1. I think both options can work, and both have serious implementation challenges, and only Thohir can choose which option he can support.

I'll tell you why. Because these two wasted years are two years we would have fallen behind Juventus, Roma and Napoli, with little guarantee that they would ever let us catch up. By these two years we would may completely have wasted or even sold some of our promising youngsters to favor Mazzari's system. In two years we may have gotten so accustomed to Mazzari and his idiotic system that we may actually start accepting pieces of crap like Jonathan and Kuzmanovic to be anything more than shit players and actually start envisioning a future with them... I can go on for much longer but truth be told, the 5 or so million we'd pay to Mazzari to fuck off, is a small price to pay to rid the club of possibly Moratti's single greatest mistake since 2010.

 

[.h.]

every successive manager seems to be a bigger mistake than the previous one.

 

[TheNetworkZ]

Uhh..no. And don't ever talk about "Simeone". If AM wins the La Liga this season, he's staying...

I'm 90% sure Simeone will stay even if they don't win the league. He MIGHT leave if he feels he can't repeat this season or do even better.

 

[Bluenine]

every successive manager seems to be a bigger mistake than the previous one.

Very true, Browha. Its not because the coaches are less talented than their predecessors, its because Inter lacks a clearly defined vision. What I would do if I were Thohir:

1. Define a vision for the club. This should include 3 key areas:
a) Clear definition of our playing style
b) Sporting objectives for the next 5 years
c) Financial plan to match those objectives, in line with FFP.

2. Hire a coach based on two parameters:
a) someone who fits in well with our playing style, and
b) someone who has the potential to achieve the next 5 years objectives.

So far we have been only looking at (b) when we hire a coach. That is stupid, as each coach who has come in has a completely different playing style. Which means that he cannot start off from where the previous manager left off, and we go right back to building from scratch which can take years. And when the immediate results don't come in, we sack him and get another coach who has a different playing style again! This is idiotic.

Remember when Mou joined us - we got lucky there. His style was not too different from Mancio, but Mou initially tried to change to a winger system instead of using the fullbacks as Mancio did. But Mou had the sense to realise very quickly that it is not working, and reverted back to Mancio's style, and make incremental improvements to it gradually.That is the right way to develop and build... Imagine if instead of Mourinho, we had hired someone who favored a 3 man defense or someone who liked possession football... we would have lost everything that Mancio had built, and started from scratch. That is what we are doing now every 6-12 months!

 

[Wings]

Very true, Browha. Its not because the coaches are less talented than their predecessors, its because Inter lacks a clearly defined vision. What I would do if I were Thohir:

1. Define a vision for the club. This should include 3 key areas:
a) Clear definition of our playing style
b) Sporting objectives for the next 5 years
c) Financial plan to match those objectives, in line with FFP.

2. Hire a coach based on two parameters:
a) someone who fits in well with our playing style, and
b) someone who has the potential to achieve the next 5 years objectives.

So far we have been only looking at (b) when we hire a coach.

No, we have not looked at that all. The only thing we've looked at is the past track record.

And if implementing a style is so important (which it is), then it makes no sense to delay that by 2+ years by sticking with Mazzarri.