Race for CL: The Next 7 Weeks

[Bluenine]

A lot has been said of Mancio's claim about targeting a top 3 finish. Looking at the table, it looks very unlikely. We are 8 points behind Lazio & Napoli, both of which in good form. Plus we are 11th in the table, and other 3rd place hopefuls like Milan and Fiorentina are also ahead of us.

8 points are possible to recover if you have only one team ahead of you. Because that team may lose form. But when you have 8 teams between you and that 3rd spot, 8 points are huge, almost impossible - all these clubs will not screw up.

But maybe Mancini has given this some thought. Two quick moves in the market (Podolski & Shaqiri) are more significant than usual. A quick look at our fixtures in Jan and Feb makes this obvious:

Week 18: Inter vs Genoa
Week 19: Empoli vs Inter
Week 20: Inter vs Torino
Week 21: Inter vs Sassuolo
Week 22: Inter vs Palermo
Week 23: Atalanta vs Inter
Week 24: Cagliari vs Inter

These are all winnable games. Mancini wanted his wingers asap, so that he can prepare for a small winning run here. If we can get 17-19 of the next 21 points, then 3rd place may not look so impossible.

A quick analysis of how I think other key competitors will do over the next 7 weeks:

So if we can get about 19 of the next 21 points, I think we will be in the Top 5 by end of Feb, and about 3-5 points from the 3rd CL spot, with 14 games to go. Then 3rd spot may look possible. From then on, we have a tougher run with a lot of head to head with direct competitors, but if we can get a good run in the next 7 weeks, then we will face the likes of Fiorentina (week 25) and Napoli (week 26) with confidence.

So it is critical for us to get a nice little winning run going now, and looking at our fixtures, it is possible. Inter have made a great start by hiring Shaqiri and Podolski quickly. Now its time to convert this into points.

Either way, we will know by end of Feb whether a 3rd place spot is possible.

Forza Inter!

 

[J..]

The games against Genoa, Torino and Palermo are thankfully at home because otherwise they could be difficult. Great thread.

 

[Cal]

The game this weekend is absolutely crucial to build confidence, and get off on the right foot.

 

[Fapuccino]

19 points out of 21 is almost impossible tbh. more likely 14-16 which would keep us out of contention.

interesting to see if mancini will pick poldi or shaq in EL.

 

[Armes]

interesting to see if mancini will pick poldi or shaq in EL.

sha requested to play in eu and poldi hinted in the press conf that he won't play by saying "the choice has already been made and it will be respected".

 

[Sassuolu]

Well we have 7 winnable games, all 3rd place competitiors drop a lot of points and with only one of poldi and shaq being allowed to play in EL I dont see us winning it so we need 3rd place badly.

 

[Bluenine]

19 points out of 21 is almost impossible tbh. more likely 14-16 which would keep us out of contention.

interesting to see if mancini will pick poldi or shaq in EL.

19+ points are very unlikely because that will require a lot of consistency - something Inter have not had for a long time. But its not almost impossible, these are all winnable games. I would be disappointed if we get less than 16 points, and yes that would almost certainly mean no 3rd spot.

Isn't Podolski cup tied anyway? Or do CL appearances not count for EL eligibility?

 

[Hasan]

First 5 games are pretty easy and we should win them all. After that we should go with confidence in Bergamo and hope for the best. It is allways hard to play there.

Do not know what excpect from Zolas Cagliari but now we definetly have quality to win there.

It will be interesting.

Good thread.

 

[.h.]

Last season you have to get 78 points to make the CL. The year before, 72. Before that, 64, and before that, 70.

Currently we have 22 points from 17 games. We need, minimum, 50 points to make CL most likely. From our 21 remaining games, that's an average of 2.4 points per game. That's higher than 3 wins out of every 4 games for the rest of the season. It'd be one of the highest win ratios any manager has ever achieved, tbh, and would be an unprecedented run of form.

In my mind, and I hope I'm wrong, there's no world in which we get CL football. I realise we're only 8 points off the pace, but still... It'd have to be a ridiculously low point-scoring Serie A for us to contest for the CL, and its basically Lazio-Napoli-Milan-Fiorentina for the third spot, before yuou think about us.

 

[Ronin]

Well.. we can always try to win EL.

 

[Bluenine]

Last season you have to get 78 points to make the CL. The year before, 72. Before that, 64, and before that, 70.

Currently we have 22 points from 17 games. We need, minimum, 50 points to make CL most likely. From our 21 remaining games, that's an average of 2.4 points per game. That's higher than 3 wins out of every 4 games for the rest of the season. It'd be one of the highest win ratios any manager has ever achieved, tbh, and would be an unprecedented run of form.

In my mind, and I hope I'm wrong, there's no world in which we get CL football. I realise we're only 8 points off the pace, but still... It'd have to be a ridiculously low point-scoring Serie A for us to contest for the CL, and its basically Lazio-Napoli-Milan-Fiorentina for the third spot, before yuou think about us.

Good point.

However this season already looks like a low point scoring one, apart from the top 2. So maybe this is like 2011-12, when you only needed 64 points. For eg, after 17 games last season, Napoli had 36 points at 3rd place, and Fiorentina at 4th place had 33 points. This season, the 3rd place after 17 rounds is at 30 points.

But that said, there are 8 teams between us and the 3rd spot, and that makes the likelihood of our finishing in the Top 3 quite negligible. We will need to go on a 6-7 game winning spree, and some other results going our way, to emerge as a realistic challenger for the final CL spot. So we will know for sure whether we stand any chance by end of Feb.

 

[Kraits]

Possible... but there are still many things to fix..

I am optimist

 

[morrisama]

4 out of 7, i'm quite sure we'll get maximum points.

 

[Pajo]

Last season you have to get 78 points to make the CL. The year before, 72. Before that, 64, and before that, 70.

Currently we have 22 points from 17 games. We need, minimum, 50 points to make CL most likely. From our 21 remaining games, that's an average of 2.4 points per game. That's higher than 3 wins out of every 4 games for the rest of the season. It'd be one of the highest win ratios any manager has ever achieved, tbh, and would be an unprecedented run of form.

In my mind, and I hope I'm wrong, there's no world in which we get CL football. I realise we're only 8 points off the pace, but still... It'd have to be a ridiculously low point-scoring Serie A for us to contest for the CL, and its basically Lazio-Napoli-Milan-Fiorentina for the third spot, before yuou think about us.

Yes, but in the previous seasons there were few consistent clubs that were rarely losing points. Now, just look at the table. We are only on -8.

Definitely possible, but as Bluenine said, we need to get most of the points in the next 7 weeks. If we get on -4/-5 till then, it's definitely possible. If we stay on -8, than not so much.

 

[Harpsabu]

Yes we can do it!

Lazio lose to roma, napoli lose to Juve, we beat Genoa, gap is already down to 5 by Monday!

 

[Cal]

In a very feasible sequence of results, we could be just 3 points off this time next week.

Roma and Juve beat Lazio and Napoli today. (Likely). Gap is down to 5 as written above.

We beat Empoli (very likely), and Napoli and Lazio draw with each other.

 

[.h.]

In a very feasible sequence of results, we could be just 3 points off this time next week.

Roma and Juve beat Lazio and Napoli today. (Likely). Gap is down to 5 as written above.

We beat Empoli (very likely), and Napoli and Lazio draw with each other.

This is the mistake we made after Strama. Let's focus on developing a coherent team, and getting results in line first, before we worry about where those results will take us.

A success for us this season is developing a good team and having a good second half to the season. That's the only thing I care about. CL would be nice, but its not that important in the bigger picture yet. If we develop a good team, have good transfers, etc, then we can give a real run next season.

 

[Cal]

Im just pointing out we should be right in the mix within the next 2-3 weeks, never mind 7 weeks.

 

[.h.]

Im just pointing out we should be right in the mix within the next 2-3 weeks, never mind 7 weeks.

Yes, but we also have hard spells of the season. The next few weeks might be comfortable, but then we have Juve, Milan, etc all to come still.

 

[Ronin]

We are unbeated in 5 matches so far (1 EL & 4 Serie A). Not impossible to reach that 3rd spot.