He didn't reckon on raiola/balo being this greedy.
Well, in my books, if someone says something in a certain way, he should reckon more. Otherwise he is nothing but a typical fan like us. Hell, I can guess as well as he can. All I need is follow couple of modern mercatos, and look for some patterns, and then just go with the probability math.
If someone is calling himself an expert, he should have some pretty good grounds to say the deal is imminent, unless some unexpected turn of events happened, like a buyer changing his mind all of a sudden, or something like that.
The fact is, he knew shit about the contract negotiations between MAn City and Balotelli, and yet he said a deal is imminent. That just tells me, he is full of crap, like most of those "experts".
They just have such a poor record lately. Most of the stuff I read from those "experts", isn't even something extraordinary, just some obvious stuff.
These guys are nothing but a "probability" experts, who just shoot where there is more chance, and look later on how the things play on. Diegus was so much better. A guy comes couple months before and says "we'll get that guy and this guy", and couple months later it comes true, and almost never is wrong (only Lampard case).
The only things I read with attention are the news where are quotes in them. I even skip the whole "commentary" stuff, and just read the quotes as it's easier and faster and more accurate. The "comments" and "expert opinions" I can make myself.