Stevan Jovetic

Pimpin · Feb 6, 2016

look, there is this thing called, expected value, what you do is calculate all possible likelihood of what the investment will be worth. For jovetic it would look like this 50m X 0.10 + 20mX 0.40+ 10mX 0.4 + 5m 0.10 = 18.5 this is even a "conservative" estimate.

BUT if we take Pato .. the likelihood that he would ever amount to even a 20m player is, like not even 10%. And the chances he ever becomes a player that is worth 50m is virtually 0. So yes, jovetic even if he is flopping is 10 x investment than Pato, heck even Eder is a better investment at 13 m than pato at 12.

I hope you wouldnt screw up your finances with some "gut" feelings of yours

Howl · Feb 6, 2016

Ronaldo said:
I agree he is not the same player but IMO he was pretty much similar to Jovetic but for less money. So if we wanted to gamble, we were better off with Pato than Jovetic.

I just checked and Jovetic's deal was 3 million loan, 15 million obligation, 2 million bonuses. Is this Jovetic, that you currently see at Inter, worth 20 million?!

Look at the deal Chelsea got. They got Pato for only 12 million OPTION to buy. If we had signed Pato and he had turned into shit, we would've not lost much but now with Jovetic we could lose 20 million.

I'm not saying Pato is a good player or he is what he used to be. I'm just saying that Pato and Jovetic were similar, but Pato was less risky.

I know what you are saying and can easily understand why, but I see both at different valuations as Jovetic to me is the better player, he's been injured since Fio but he's still there, imo Pato's injuries took their toll (he could prove me wrong). Jovetic for 18 or 20 was still a good deal as we know what he can bring to the table. Also he is a player who is still valuable, and if we were to sell we could still get 15mil and have a small loss. It's been over half a season which is too soon to judge. Many of our players have been ineffective, and with a different coach (which is very possible in the future) he could thrive.

Ronaldo · Feb 6, 2016

Dylan said:
Assuming Pato would have been an obligation too then it's irrelevant. Both players were cursed by injuries and were big gambles. I don't think it's right to write Jovetic off completely yet though.

If Pato was signed by Chelsea on obligation to buy, that would've been a different story. But since Chelsea have an option to buy, that makes the deal less risky.

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DomesticatedPimp said:
look, there is this thing called, expected value, what you do is calculate all possible likelihood of what the investment will be worth. For jovetic it would look like this 50m X 0.10 + 20mX 0.40+ 10mX 0.4 + 5m 0.10 = 18.5 this is even a "conservative" estimate.

BUT if we take Pato .. the likelihood that he would ever amount to even a 20m player is, like not even 10%. And the chances he ever becomes a player that is worth 50m is virtually 0. So yes, jovetic even if he is flopping is 10 x investment than Pato, heck even Eder is a better investment at 13 m than pato at 12.

I hope you wouldnt screw up your finances with some "gut" feelings of yours

The 2+2 that they teach you at school is not going to work in the real world. Once you graduate and get sone experince you know that the real world is much different than what you learned at school. That's applicable to many majors not just finance.

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Howl said:
I know what you are saying and can easily understand why, but I see both at different valuations as Jovetic to me is the better player, he's been injured since Fio but he's still there, imo Pato's injuries took their toll (he could prove me wrong). Jovetic for 18 or 20 was still a good deal as we know what he can bring to the table. Also he is a player who is still valuable, and if we were to sell we could still get 15mil and have a small loss. It's been over half a season which is too soon to judge. Many of our players have been ineffective, and with a different coach (which is very possible in the future) he could thrive.

IMO, there is noway in hell we could sell Jovetic for 15 million. Maybe to some unknown league like the Chinese but that's about it. It's true that it might be too soon to judge Jovetic but honestly, I don't see him getting any better than this although I really do hope so we can qualify for CL.

Anyways, no point discussing this any further as we clearly don't agree. We will wait until the season ends and will see how much we gained/lost from this transfer vs. how much Chelsea gained/lost from Pato's transfer. Then we would know for sure, which signing was better.

Javier'sSon · Feb 6, 2016

.@sjovetic will miss #VeronaInter after tests revealed a thigh strain #FCIM

wera · Feb 6, 2016

Jojo started really well, shame he has fallen so.

thatdude · Feb 6, 2016

And now the injuries start?

Kakaroto · Feb 6, 2016

Now that Eder is here he is about to get that flu.

Ronaldo · Feb 6, 2016

Imagine if he ends up needing a surgery and we ask City if they agree and they take too long to answer. Then we don't pay our obligation to buy and send him back to city...

#Sunderlandstyle

Ronin · Feb 6, 2016

His thigh has the flu.

ADRossi · Feb 7, 2016

Ronin said:
His thigh has the flu.

That's provocative.

Pajo · Feb 7, 2016

The Inter flu hits again :lol:

.h. · Feb 7, 2016

send him to the mountain healer

Javier'sSon · Feb 7, 2016

First stop on the train to Stoke.

n4l · Feb 7, 2016

browha said:
send him to the mountain healer

gold....

Wings · Feb 8, 2016

Ronaldo said:
The 2+2 that they teach you at school is not going to work in the real world. Once you graduate and get sone experince you know that the real world is much different than what you learned at school. That's applicable to many majors not just finance.

I'm pretty sure 2 + 2 still works in the real world.

Inter2010 · Feb 8, 2016

It's called the... Inter Virus

.h. · Feb 8, 2016

Wings said:
I'm pretty sure 2 + 2 still works in the real world.

I like the way he says 2+2, not even 2+2=4. Like some how the very concept of 2+2 doesnt work, not that specifically 2+2 no longer equals 4.

It's not like he's saying 2+2=5, or 2+2=apple. But rather, just 2+2 doesnt work.

He's not wrong, though. Sure, we can talk about expected value and risk-adjusted cost and all that shit, but at the end of the day, we arent buying commodities, you're buying unique players. If a player is in demand, you can pay well past their valuation.

Corporate finance is a good guideline, but it all goes out the window at some point to the real world

Wings · Feb 9, 2016

browha said:
I like the way he says 2+2, not even 2+2=4. Like some how the very concept of 2+2 doesnt work, not that specifically 2+2 no longer equals 4.

It's not like he's saying 2+2=5, or 2+2=apple. But rather, just 2+2 doesnt work.

He's not wrong, though. Sure, we can talk about expected value and risk-adjusted cost and all that shit, but at the end of the day, we arent buying commodities, you're buying unique players. If a player is in demand, you can pay well past their valuation.

Corporate finance is a good guideline, but it all goes out the window at some point to the real world

Pimp's calculations were a simplification, but he was quantifying a fairly basic concept: that you should take potential and probability into account. It's an inexact science, but you can approximate how 'good' a player will turn out to be. Pato may or may not have a higher ceiling than Jovetic, but his probability of reaching it is far lower than Jovetic. The real world means that there are more variables at play, but that doesn't mean basic concepts like expected value are worthless. It just means that they require more modification and should be built upon, not thrown out of the window.

Pimpin · Feb 9, 2016

thank you wings, I obviously said that its an approximation, and stop romanticizing this "real world" crap.

If you'd put 12m for pato over 18m for jovetic, I don't know what real world you are in but thats a bad investment

Ronaldo · Feb 9, 2016

I didn't say I would put 12 million for Pato vs. 18 million for Jovetic.

Since Pato's deal is an OPTION to buy, his buying price is irrelevant since we are not obliged to invest that amount. So Yes, I would put loaning Pato with ao option to buy over 18 million obligation to buy Jovetic.

If Pato fails we don't lose anything. If Jovetics fails, we lose 18 million and few years of wages.

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