UEFA Champions League 2024/2025

[wera]

Especially because our direct rivals still have tough games

 

[.h.]

"based on simulations" mean that you can run that format through computer for million times and look what's the most likely occurrence, second most likely etc. And the odds for 16p being enough for top8 was the best, I just don't know the exact figures but it was very close to 100%. Even 15p would be like 70% likeliness to make it to top8.

None of this matters in the real life in the sense how things really evolve, of course. Maybe we'll get that 1% event which requires more than 16p for the top8, who knows.

Fact is still, we're at a very good spot after MD 4.

And without any more seed 1 games. 4 points from the games where we could have afforded 0 and still qyalified is really powerful

 

[Alex de Large]

I just checked Brest opponents and it's a really easy schedule, only Madrid looks like a top tier

btw our next opponent is Leipzig and they have 0 points, i dislike that, but it's in the Meazza so hope for a win..

 

[Jnr]

Inter 10pts.

4 matches left. Almost there. But still difficult games left.


Milan 6pts

Top8 easily, 4 very winnable matches. 12pts up for grabs to add on 6.

Rube 7pts

Plenty of hard and tricky games left:
Villa, Brugge A, City, Benfica H

Atalanta 8pts

Real and Barca, Young Boys and Sturm.

Could get there, could be the first one to be left out.

 

[CafeCordoba]

And without any more seed 1 games. 4 points from the games where we could have afforded 0 and still qyalified is really powerful

Actually Leipzig is from pot 1. But as said, they sit at 0 points and it's a home game. But it isn't that that they've been totally terrible, against Juve for example their defending was just poor. They have Sesko who has 3 goals in CL this season. They have also played against Atletico, Juve and Liverpool. Only really awful result is from Tuesday, 3-1 against Celtic.

But then we have Leverkusen who is from pot 2 so I think it's kinda reversed here, Leverkusen is pot 1 level opponent, while Leipzig is pot 2 level (in a vaccuum).

 

[.h.]

Actually Leipzig is from pot 1. But as said, they sit at 0 points and it's a home game. But it isn't that that they've been totally terrible, against Juve for example their defending was just poor. They have Sesko who has 3 goals in CL this season. They have also played against Atletico, Juve and Liverpool. Only really awful result is from Tuesday, 3-1 against Celtic.

But then we have Leverkusen who is from pot 2 so I think it's kinda reversed here, Leverkusen is pot 1 level opponent, while Leipzig is pot 2 level (in a vaccuum).

ah i didnt realise, thanks. I figured our pot 1 was Arsenal and City! but of course with some thought that is very unlikely to be the case

 

[Il Drago]

Even though Leipzig are at a much better state than Leverkusen this season i fear the match against Bayer a lot more. Playing at BayArena is gonna be tough. Beating Leipzig at home would make our life a lot easier.

 

[Adriano@10]

Even though Leipzig are at a much better state than Leverkusen this season i fear the match against Bayer a lot more. Playing at BayArena is gonna be tough. Beating Leipzig at home would make our life a lot easier.

Kind reminder hat Bayer aint the same beast as they were last season.. STill a very good tem but not as good...
For example they lost 3:2 to Leipzig at home

 

[Alex de Large]

I'm sure Limone will learn from Atalanta in the EL final.
I like Leverkusen to be away and Monaco home.
Monaco away would be worst imo

 

[wera]

Also our players need a game in front of German fans, for experience if not anything else

 

[CafeCordoba]

Even though Leipzig are at a much better state than Leverkusen this season i fear the match against Bayer a lot more. Playing at BayArena is gonna be tough. Beating Leipzig at home would make our life a lot easier.

Yeah for sure. I'd feel a lot better heading to that Bayer away match if we beat Leipzig at home.

Here's some simulations being run.

 

[.h.]

the R16 is gonna be interesting with so many big teams in it. I think its top 8 vs bottom 8, as well? So you'll get Milan -> Athletico vs Celtic -> PSG.

 

[Kramerica Industries]

the R16 is gonna be interesting with so many big teams in it. I think its top 8 vs bottom 8, as well? So you'll get Milan -> Athletico vs Celtic -> PSG.

I've heard it described as this:

9th or 10th place will face 24th or 23rd place.
11th or 12th will face 22nd or 21st.
13th or 14th --> 20th or 19th
15th or 16th --> 18th or 17th

And then it continues from there into the knockout stage. So, first place team faces the winner of #16 vs. #17/18, second places faces winner of #15 vs. #17/18, so on and so forth. I think I read it's a fixed system, so even the #9 team got upset by the #23 or #24 team, that doesn't mean that team then faces the #1 team in a re-seeded manner. They would still face the #8 ranked team. I stress "I think" in that sentence.

On one hand, it's staggering to see the Madrid sides struggling so much so far - Madrid in 18th, Atleti in 23rd - but imagine finishing as the top team and your reward is facing Real Madrid immediately. Their form and vibes are dreadful right now, but that might be totally different by February. Atleti...well, we know how that story went.

 

[.h.]

I've heard it described as this:

9th or 10th place will face 24th or 23rd place.
11th or 12th will face 22nd or 21st.
13th or 14th --> 20th or 19th
15th or 16th --> 18th or 17th

And then it continues from there into the knockout stage. So, first place team faces the winner of #16 vs. #17/18, second places faces winner of #15 vs. #17/18, so on and so forth. I think I read it's a fixed system, so even the #9 team got upset by the #23 or #24 team, that doesn't mean that team then faces the #1 team in a re-seeded manner. They would still face the #8 ranked team. I stress "I think" in that sentence.

On one hand, it's staggering to see the Madrid sides struggling so much so far - Madrid in 18th, Atleti in 23rd - but imagine finishing as the top team and your reward is facing Real Madrid immediately. Their form and vibes are dreadful right now, but that might be totally different by February. Atleti...well, we know how that story went.

ah ok cool, that makes sense, and gives a little randomness I guess?

thanks!

and, tbh, if you count 'big clubs' as: City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Inter, Barca, Real, PSG, Munich - ignoring Atletico, Milan, Juve, Dortmund, some big clubs are always gonna fall out and get darwn. In a way i guess it makes it more interesting.

 

[CafeCordoba]

This is what the uefa.com says about it

In the knockout phase, the teams that finish between 9th and 16th will be seeded in the knockout phase play-off draw, meaning they will face a team placed 17th to 24th – with, in principle, the return leg at home. The eight clubs which prevail in the knockout phase play-offs will then progress to the round of 16, where they will each face one of the top-eight finishers, who will be seeded in the round of 16.

To strengthen the synergy between the league and knockout phases, and to provide more sporting incentive during the league phase, the pairings of the knockout phase will also be partly determined by the league phase rankings, with a draw which likewise determines and lays out the route for teams to reach the final.

Can't really figure it out what is the system. Maybe it is define somewhere explicitly for us nerds.

 

[Kramerica Industries]

ah ok cool, that makes sense, and gives a little randomness I guess?

thanks!

and, tbh, if you count 'big clubs' as: City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Inter, Barca, Real, PSG, Munich - ignoring Atletico, Milan, Juve, Dortmund, some big clubs are always gonna fall out and get darwn. In a way i guess it makes it more interesting.

Yeah, I remember writing something about this a while back that there's more "top 8" teams than there are top 8 places. We should know ourselves, we weren't a de facto top-8 team (group winner) last year. PSG wasn't either.

I think this revision to the CL has been a massive success. It's certainly brought more freshness to things. Eight different opponents instead of the same three opponents home-and-away. That they expanded to eight games is perhaps its own source of controversy re: player health and safety, but now everybody has important games to play instead of most Pot 1 teams (and many Pot 2 teams) getting drawn into manageable groups and usually being able to manage without too much energy spent. PSG and both Madrid sides are no guarantees to reach the play-off round at this point (Madrid's next two games are away to Liverpool and Atalanta; this could get very real for them very quickly) and almost assuredly not going to get direct qualification. It's exciting to watch. And a great test of our strength as well, 4/6 points against #1 and #2 from the Premier League last season. We have every reason to think we're capable of making a run here too and top-8 is in good shape at this point albeit some tricky games still ahead against German opposition.

 

[.h.]

Yeah, I remember writing something about this a while back that there's more "top 8" teams than there are top 8 places. We should know ourselves, we weren't a de facto top-8 team (group winner) last year. PSG wasn't either.

I think this revision to the CL has been a massive success. It's certainly brought more freshness to things. Eight different opponents instead of the same three opponents home-and-away. That they expanded to eight games is perhaps its own source of controversy re: player health and safety, but now everybody has important games to play instead of most Pot 1 teams (and many Pot 2 teams) getting drawn into manageable groups and usually being able to manage without too much energy spent. PSG and both Madrid sides are no guarantees to reach the play-off round at this point (Madrid's next two games are away to Liverpool and Atalanta; this could get very real for them very quickly) and almost assuredly not going to get direct qualification. It's exciting to watch. And a great test of our strength as well, 4/6 points against #1 and #2 from the Premier League last season. We have every reason to think we're capable of making a run here too and top-8 is in good shape at this point albeit some tricky games still ahead against German opposition.

I think there are probably some iterations on it still, but overall, I think it does make sense - e.g. more big games. The lack of seed 1 vs seed 1 previously meant big games were fewer and further between.

 

[brakbrak]

This is what the uefa.com says about it


Can't really figure it out what is the system. Maybe it is define somewhere explicitly for us nerds.

From UEFA documents Annex B



Also, teams from the same country can face each other in the knockout stages.

 

[Suraj]

Even though Leipzig are at a much better state than Leverkusen this season i fear the match against Bayer a lot more. Playing at BayArena is gonna be tough. Beating Leipzig at home would make our life a lot easier.

Its weird, idk if they're doing the classic "focus on the league" thing, haven't watched their games but they lost to even celtic. anyway even with rotations, we need to take that game as seriously as we did vs arsenal

 

[.h.]

kinda interesting they've made it pre-determined, except for the first bit of uncertainty, throughout the final. Basically once the KO draw is done, you know who your potential opponents are.