Stocks

[Adriano@10]

BOJ just giving up..... They might never again be able to raise rates... Seems like smart central bank policy...

 

[Pimpin]

Helios Towers with another amazing set of results, leverage down 0.6x, EBITDA up 20%. Net leverage will be 4x and declining..

organic sites growth not as strong but its just a matter of time..

trading at 2.9 ebitda 4.3 times free cash flow..

 

[Adriano@10]

Strange times we re going from +3% to -3% from day to day...
Great for day trades absolutely unnerving for me

 

[Adriano@10]

Looks like the jig is finally up for b riley... down 47% hard to find a management team and stock pumpers more deserving of this downfall thn these clowns...
Glad i can finally walk away from this trade with a neat profit after these fuckers fucked me over with a bunch of lies shortsquezes and other shenanigans.

 

[Adriano@10]

Bought some CME calls just for the fuck of it no CEO makes that much of a difference unless the next one is absolutely incompetent

 

[Adriano@10]

Mixed reaction to the CPI would have expected a bigger rally a 2.9% anyways i guess it stlll leaves some room for the fed to not cut...

Also check out fairfax india canadian holding with focus on india currently tades about 10CDA under book value and one of it s biggest direct holdings is gonna ipo most likely still this year. Nice exposure to India with assets that are valued relatively conservative (the private ones). The IPO is the bangalore airport i just talked to a buddy of mine who is also an asset manager and he said him and most other indian investors are quite excited for that IPO so we should get a nice boost there. The whole thing is run by a indian/canadian guy who is known as the canadian warren buffett. Only obvious downside is the rather high mgm fees which should land somw here in the 3.5% which also might explain away part of the NAV discount.
Anyways i started a small position just cause i want the indian exposure and i like it more than any india etf/fund currenty available to me.

 

[Pimpin]

I love the people who sold me walmart shares at discount everytime this thing dips.

43% up post q3 earnings (2023)

 

[Adriano@10]

HAHAH was about to post I hope you boys are enjoying this as much as i do... Loaded up on some more long dated puts on the opening rally...(Mainly TESLA and CVNA but also some Meta as i m nt gonna sell my meta Position so i need a bit of a hedge)
Lets see how it goes think we still have a long way to go but who knows we sure as shit will get some counter rallies and some hopium. Also I m not sure how much of he damage was done by the JPY carry trade which probably is already unwinded for the most part.
Anyways strap in boys it s gonna be a fun couple of months with lots of opportunity but also lots of risk. Most important thng is that you get through the storm with some liquidity left so that you can pick up stuff on the cheap like we did in 08-10....

Also ths is not advice to go short on current markets for anybody just what i m trying to do.

Edit: and this current reaction is why it s nt advice to anybody... WHO the fuck buys the most overpriced used car seller when we re about o go into a downturn? Makes little sense even if you ignore all the red flags.... Anyways here i go doubling down pray for me boys

Maybe my worst take on markets ever?
Also this reactin to retail sales being up 1%
Weird fucken times

 

[crzdcolombian]

damn Intel hit under $20 they lost almost 30 billion in stock buy backs 2-3 years ago haha

now they are firing people. The whole buy buy thing is bullshit then they say they dont have money to pay bonuses or have to do cuts in employee counts

 

[ADRossi]

Half point rate cut, baby.

 

[_Ivan_]

Half point rate cut, baby.

And SP500 continues it's roid cycle. Gonna be interesting end of Q in 10 days

 

[crzdcolombian]

And SP500 continues it's roid cycle. Gonna be interesting end of Q in 10 days

Glad I got Nike at $70 it's up $16 from the low. $6 today with new CEO.

getting 2 new iPhones and a Apple Watch 10 day so your all welcome for the apple bump soon.

 

[_Ivan_]

Glad I got Nike at $70 it's up $16 from the low. $6 today with new CEO.

getting 2 new iPhones and a Apple Watch 10 day so your all welcome for the apple bump soon.

Nice catch, I see it all up to 90 or even more. There could be 2$ gap fill lower next week before it continues, given the fact today's uncertainty regarding options expiry. Dips look attractive again

 

[Adriano@10]

On nike just a kind reminder that companies usually dont fire their CEO 2 weeks before they release their quarterly results unless they already know it s a rather bad Q......

 

[ADRossi]

On nike just a kind reminder that companies usually dont fire their CEO 2 weeks before they release their quarterly results unless they already know it s a rather bad Q......

It's about the long-term. Their (now former) CEO was a disaster who destroyed the company.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Pimpin]

Helios Towers with another amazing set of results, leverage down 0.6x, EBITDA up 20%. Net leverage will be 4x and declining..

organic sites growth not as strong but its just a matter of time..

trading at 2.9 ebitda 4.3 times free cash flow..

I still go over and over these earnings and I am not sure I am missing something.

they will most likely get at least 1,000 more tenancies from Vodafone in Oman, so another 20-30m in EBITDA (2nd tenant is almost pure profit, like 90% EBITDA).

Not as familiar with other countries but if it gets to 450 EBITDA with Oman only growth next year, that's like 2.5 times EBITDA, if you put like 20-30m from other countries which is quite likely, you're looking at 500m EBITDA, or just over 2 times EBITDA valuation currently.

These guys are also hedge their currencies so no surprises on that side (like IHS).

Checked the target prices and it makes sense



but then again these were the same guys who were yelling sell at 60 so.. haha but yeah 262 doesn't seem outlandish at all, 6-7 times EBITDA is not outlandish multiple at all for towercos

 

[Pimpin]

I forgot to mention here, but I love wingstop.. I think I have ordered it like 40 times since moving to UK and only 5 times it has not been up to standard.

not advise to buy the stock, but stuff is amazing

 

[Adriano@10]

LOL china....

 

[Adriano@10]

So the robo fraud Event was yesterday and again i m stunned with how gullible a lot of investors are and how lazy sell side is...
Have not seen a single downgrade yet....Despite nothing new beeing shown...

What i want to talk about here is how the fuck elon gets away with the dumbest lies. SO he presents the robotaxi claims it s gonna be under 30k and that it will cost 0.2$ per mile driven... How the fuck does that possibly work out?
SImple math would suggest that even if the car costs 20K it would need to drive 100k miles without any repair no insurance or licensing cost ohh and no cost for the energy you need to drive the fucken thing and you would already be at a cost of 0.2$ per mile...
The lies are so fucken obvious, basically what i wat to say never trust any CEO blindly oh and sell side is not gonna help you until they have to.

 

[Pimpin]

So the robo fraud Event was yesterday and again i m stunned with how gullible a lot of investors are and how lazy sell side is...
Have not seen a single downgrade yet....Despite nothing new beeing shown...

What i want to talk about here is how the fuck elon gets away with the dumbest lies. SO he presents the robotaxi claims it s gonna be under 30k and that it will cost 0.2$ per mile driven... How the fuck does that possibly work out?
SImple math would suggest that even if the car costs 20K it would need to drive 100k miles without any repair no insurance or licensing cost ohh and no cost for the energy you need to drive the fucken thing and you would already be at a cost of 0.2$ per mile...
The lies are so fucken obvious, basically what i wat to say never trust any CEO blindly oh and sell side is not gonna help you until they have to.

there was a great FT article about it



One of Elon Musk’s most consistent features is his tendency to make promises he does not keep. In 2018, for example, he vowed to launch his own brand of confectionery — a plan that, despite some trademark applications, has yet to generate sweet returns. On Thursday, the Tesla boss made a grander claim: his self-driving taxi could be in production by 2026.

This latest endeavour is more credible, but not by much.Autonomous vehicles for hire, such as the one Musk demonstrated at a live event called “We, Robot”, are almost certainly the future. Driverless cabs already ferry passengers in San Francisco, courtesy of Google subsidiary Waymo. The Tesla “Cybercab” could cost as little as 30 cents a mile to run, compared with the 81 cents it cost to operate a car in the US in 2023.

Where the average car runs fewer than two hours a day, robotaxis could run 10 times that, he suggests.Because Musk loves to throw big numbers around, here is a back-of-the-envelope idea of what is at stake. Americans drive about 3tn miles a year. If 10 per cent of that travel shifts to robotaxis, with passengers paying the roughly $1 a mile it costs to ride a city bus, there could be $300bn of revenue. At a 50 per cent operating margin, valued on the 15 times multiple of operating profit that carmakers such as Ford command, the result is more than $2tn of value.Such figures are pure speculation, of course, but there are wilder estimates out there. Florida-based technology fund Ark Invest reckons Tesla’s value could hit $8tn, 90 per cent of that from robotaxis.

Musk himself has said the Cybercab could drive the company’s worth to $5tn. That does not include any theoretical contribution from a still-in-development humanoid robot, Optimus, which Musk calls potentially “the biggest product ever of any kind”.

For now, little of that is in the share price. Tesla’s market value was $760bn on Thursday. Granted, that is 30 per cent of the value of all listed carmakers, according to LSEG. But that premium valuation owes more to Musk’s past promises to significantly increase production of electric vehicles, including the introduction of a relatively affordable $25,000 model. The shares have risen 45 per cent since Tesla announced a “robotaxi day”, but are down 40 per cent since their peak in 2021.The scepticism is justified. Google, Amazon and General Motors are also vying for robotaxi supremacy.


There are multiple regulators to be won over before rides can be hailed. Besides, Musk has a habit of being cavalier with deadlines: in 2015, he predicted fully autonomous cars by 2018. Even Thursday’s big reveal was originally scheduled for August. Investors can believe in the Tesla chief’s entertaining vision but are sensible not to stake their fortunes on it.



also since I have a bit of time may do a write up on helios towers