Projection to 86 points Serie A 2024/2025 + UCL

[pier]

	Club (Form)	86 Budget	Points (Max)	Lose	Draw
	Inter (GP:14 = 9W 4D 1L)	4D 3L	31 (103)
	Juventus (GP:15 = 6W 9D 0L)	-1D 4L	27 (96)
	AC Milan (GP:14 = 6W 4D 4L)	4D 0L	22 (94)
	Napoli (GP:14 = 10W 2D 2L)	6D 2L	32 (104)
	Atalanta (GP:15 = 11W 1D 3L)	7D 1L	34 (103)
	Fiorentina (GP:13 = 8W 4D 1L)	4D 3L	28 (103)
	Lazio (GP:14 = 9W 1D 4L)	7D 0L	28 (100)
	Roma (GP:14 = 3W 4D 7L)	4D -3L	13 (85)
-	---	---	---	---	---
#	INTER	Score	Result	Points	Pts compare vs 23,22,21
1	Genoa - Inter	2-2	D	1	3 (-2) ● 3 (-2) ● 3 (-2)
2	Inter - Lecce	2-0	W	4	6 (-2) ● 6 (-2) ● 6 (-2)
3	Inter - Atalanta	4-0	W	7	9 (-2) ● 6 (+1) ● 7 (0)
4	Monza - Inter	1-1	D	8	12 (-4) ● 9 (-1) ● 10 (-2)
5	Inter - AC Milan	1-2	L	8	15 (-7) ● 9 (-1) ● 13 (-5)
6	Udinese - Inter	2-3	W	11	15 (-4) ● 12 (-1) ● 14 (-3)
7	Inter - Torino	3-2	W	14	18 (-4) ● 12 (+2) ● 17 (-3)
8	AS Roma - Inter	0-1	W	17	19 (-2) ● 12 (+5) ● 17 (0)
9	Inter - Juventus	4-4	D	18	22 (-4) ● 15 (+3) ● 18 (0)
10	Empoli - Inter	0-3	W	21	25 (-4) ● 18 (+3) ● 21 (0)
11	Inter - Venezia	1-0	W	24	28 (-4) ● 21 (+3) ● 24 (0)
12	Inter - Napoli	1-1	D	25	31 (-6) ● 24 (+1) ● 25 (0)
13	Verona - Inter	0-5	W	28	32 (-4) ● 24 (+4) ● 28 (0)
14	Fiorentina - Inter			28	35 (-7) ● 27 (+1) ● 31 (-3)
15	Inter - Parma	3-1	W	31	38 (-7) ● 30 (+1) ● 34 (-3)
16	SS Lazio - Inter
17	Inter - Como
18	Cagliari - Inter
19	Inter - Bologna
20	Venezia - Inter
21	Inter - Empoli
22	Lecce - Inter
23	AC Milan - Inter
24	Inter - Fiorentina
25	Juventus - Inter
26	Inter - Genoa
27	Napoli - Inter
28	Inter - Monza
29	Atalanta - Inter
30	Inter - Udinese
31	Parma - Inter
32	Inter - Cagliari
33	Bologna - Inter
34	Inter - AS Roma
35	Inter - Verona
36	Torino - Inter
37	Inter - SS Lazio
38	Como - Inter
-	---	---	---	---	---
#	JUVENTUS	Score	Result	Points
1	Juventus - Como	3-0	W	3
2	Verona - Juventus	0-3	W	6
3	Juventus - AS Roma	0-0	D	7
4	Empoli - Juventus	0-0	D	8
5	Juventus - Napoli	0-0	D	9
6	Genoa - Juventus	0-3	W	12
7	Juventus - Cagliari	1-1	D	13
8	Juventus - SS Lazio	1-0	W	16
9	Inter - Juventus	4-4	D	17
10	Juventus - Parma	2-2	D	18
11	Udinese - Juventus	0-2	W	21
12	Juventus - Torino	2-0	W	24
13	AC Milan - Juventus	0-0	D	25
14	Lecce - Juventus	1-1	D	26
15	Juventus - Bologna	2-2	D	27
16	Juventus - Venezia
17	Monza - Juventus
18	Juventus - Fiorentina
19	Atalanta - Juventus
20	Torino - Juventus
21	Juventus - AC Milan
22	Napoli - Juventus
23	Juventus - Empoli
24	Como - Juventus
25	Juventus - Inter
26	Cagliari - Juventus
27	Juventus - Verona
28	Juventus - Atalanta
29	Fiorentina - Juventus
30	Juventus - Genoa
31	AS Roma - Juventus
32	Juventus - Lecce
33	Parma - Juventus
34	Juventus - Monza
35	Bologna - Juventus
36	SS Lazio - Juventus
37	Juventus - Udinese
38	Venezia - Juventus
-	---	---	---	---	---
#	MILAN	Score	Result	Points
1	AC Milan - Torino	2-2	D	1
2	Parma - AC Milan	2-1	L	1
3	SS Lazio - AC Milan	2-2	D	2
4	AC Milan - Venezia	4-0	W	5
5	Inter - AC Milan	1-2	W	8
6	AC Milan - Lecce	3-0	W	11
7	Fiorentina - AC Milan	2-1	L	11
8	AC Milan - Udinese	1-0	W	14
9	Bologna - AC Milan			14
10	AC Milan - Napoli	0-2	L	14
11	Monza - AC Milan	0-1	W	17
12	Cagliari - AC Milan	3-3	D	18
13	AC Milan - Juventus	0-0	D	19
14	AC Milan - Empoli	3-0	W	22
15	Atalanta - AC Milan	2-1	L	22
16	AC Milan - Genoa
17	Verona - AC Milan
18	AC Milan - AS Roma
19	Como - AC Milan
20	AC Milan - Cagliari
21	Juventus - AC Milan
22	AC Milan - Parma
23	AC Milan - Inter
24	Empoli - AC Milan
25	AC Milan - Verona
26	Torino - AC Milan
27	AC Milan - SS Lazio
28	Lecce - AC Milan
29	AC Milan - Como
30	Napoli - AC Milan
31	AC Milan - Fiorentina
32	Udinese - AC Milan
33	AC Milan - Atalanta
34	Venezia - AC Milan
35	Genoa - AC Milan
36	AC Milan - Bologna
37	AS Roma - AC Milan
38	AC Milan - Monza
-	---	---	---	---	---
#	NAPOLI		Result	Points
1	Verona - Napoli	3-0	L	0
2	Napoli - Bologna	3-0	W	3
3	Napoli - Parma	2-1	W	6
4	Cagliari - Napoli	0-4	W	9
5	Juventus - Napoli	0-0	D	10
6	Napoli - Monza	2-0	W	13
7	Napoli - Como	3-1	W	16
8	Empoli - Napoli	0-1	W	19
9	Napoli - Lecce	1-0	W	22
10	AC Milan - Napoli	0-2	W	25
11	Napoli - Atalanta	0-3	L	25
12	Inter - Napoli	1-1	D	26
13	Napoli - AS Roma	1-0	W	29
14	Torino - Napoli	0-1	W	32
15	Napoli - SS Lazio
16	Udinese - Napoli
17	Genoa - Napoli
18	Napoli - Venezia
19	Fiorentina - Napoli
20	Napoli - Verona
21	Atalanta - Napoli
22	Napoli - Juventus
23	AS Roma - Napoli
24	Napoli - Udinese
25	SS Lazio - Napoli
26	Como - Napoli
27	Napoli - Inter
28	Napoli - Fiorentina
29	Venezia - Napoli
30	Napoli - AC Milan
31	Bologna - Napoli
32	Napoli - Empoli
33	Monza - Napoli
34	Napoli - Torino
35	Lecce - Napoli
36	Napoli - Genoa
37	Parma - Napoli
38	Napoli - Cagliari
-	---	---	---	---	---
#	ATALANTA		Result	Points
1	Lecce - Atalanta	0-4	W	3
2	Torino - Atalanta	2-1	L	3
3	Inter - Atalanta	4-0	L	3
4	Atalanta - Fiorentina	3-2	W	6
5	Atalanta - Como	2-3	L	6
6	Bologna - Atalanta	1-1	D	7
7	Atalanta - Genoa	5-1	W	10
8	Venezia - Atalanta	0-2	W	13
9	Atalanta - Verona	6-1	W	16
10	Atalanta - Monza	2-0	W	19
11	Napoli - Atalanta	0-3	W	22
12	Atalanta - Udinese	2-1	W	25
13	Parma - Atalanta	1-3	W	28
14	AS Roma - Atalanta	0-2	W	31
15	Atalanta - AC Milan	2-1	W	34
16	Cagliari - Atalanta
17	Atalanta - Empoli
18	SS Lazio - Atalanta
19	Atalanta - Juventus
20	Udinese - Atalanta
21	Atalanta - Napoli
22	Como - Atalanta
23	Atalanta - Torino
24	Verona - Atalanta
25	Atalanta - Cagliari
26	Empoli - Atalanta
27	Atalanta - Venezia
28	Juventus - Atalanta
29	Atalanta - Inter
30	Fiorentina - Atalanta
31	Atalanta - SS Lazio
32	Atalanta - Bologna
33	AC Milan - Atalanta
34	Atalanta - Lecce
35	Monza - Atalanta
36	Atalanta - AS Roma
37	Genoa - Atalanta
38	Atalanta - Parma
-	---	---	---	---	---
#	AS ROMA		Result	Points
1	Cagliari - AS Roma	0-0	D	1
2	AS Roma - Empoli	1-2	L	1
3	Juventus - AS Roma	0-0	D	2
4	Genoa - AS Roma	1-1	D	3
5	AS Roma - Udinese	3-0	W	6
6	AS Roma - Venezia	2-1	W	9
7	Monza - AS Roma	1-1	D	10
8	AS Roma - Inter	0-1	L	10
9	Fiorentina - AS Roma	5-1	L	10
10	AS Roma - Torino	1-0	W	13
11	Verona - AS Roma	3-2	L	13
12	AS Roma - Bologna	2-3	L	13
13	Napoli - AS Roma	1-0	L	13
14	AS Roma - Atalanta	0-2	L	13
15	AS Roma - Lecce
16	Como - AS Roma
17	AS Roma - Parma
18	AC Milan - AS Roma
19	AS Roma - SS Lazio
20	Bologna - AS Roma
21	AS Roma - Genoa
22	Udinese - AS Roma
23	AS Roma - Napoli
24	Venezia - AS Roma
25	Parma - AS Roma
26	AS Roma - Monza
27	AS Roma - Como
28	Empoli - AS Roma
29	AS Roma - Cagliari
30	Lecce - AS Roma
31	AS Roma - Juventus
32	SS Lazio - AS Roma
33	AS Roma - Verona
34	Inter - AS Roma
35	AS Roma - Fiorentina
36	Atalanta - AS Roma
37	AS Roma - AC Milan
38	Torino - AS Roma
-	---	---	---	---	---
#	LAZIO		Result	Points
1	Lazio - Venezia FC	3-1	W	3
2	Udinese Calcio - Lazio	2-1	L	3
3	Lazio - AC Milan	2-2	D	4
4	Lazio - Hellas Verona	2-1	W	7
5	ACF Fiorentina - Lazio	2-1	L	7
6	Torino FC - Lazio	2-3	W	10
7	Lazio - FC Empoli	2-1	W	13
8	Juventus FC - Lazio	1-0	L	13
9	Lazio - Genoa CFC	3-0	W	16
10	Como 1907 - Lazio	1-5	W	19
11	Lazio - Cagliari Calcio	2-1	W	22
12	AC Monza - Lazio	0-1	W	25
13	Lazio - Bologna	3-0	W	28
14	Parma - Lazio	3-1	L	28
15	SSC Napoli - Lazio
16	Lazio - Inter Milan
17	US Lecce - Lazio
18	Lazio - Atalanta BC
19	AS Roma - Lazio
20	Lazio - Como 1907
21	Hellas Verona - Lazio
22	Lazio - ACF Fiorentina
23	Cagliari Calcio - Lazio
24	Lazio - AC Monza
25	Lazio - SSC Napoli
26	Venezia FC - Lazio
27	AC Milan - Lazio
28	Lazio - Udinese Calcio
29	Bologna - Lazio
30	Lazio - Torino FC
31	Atalanta BC - Lazio
32	Lazio - AS Roma
33	Genoa CFC - Lazio
34	Lazio - Parma
35	FC Empoli - Lazio
36	Lazio - Juventus FC
37	Inter Milan - Lazio
38	Lazio - US Lecce
-	---	---	---	---	---
#	FIORENTINA		Result	Points
1	Parma - Fiorentina	1-1	D	1
2	Fiorentina - Venezia FC	0-0	D	2
3	Fiorentina - AC Monza	2-2	D	3
4	Atalanta BC - Fiorentina	3-2	L	3
5	Fiorentina - Lazio	2-1	W	6
6	FC Empoli - Fiorentina	0-0	D	7
7	Fiorentina - AC Milan	2-1	W	10
8	US Lecce - Fiorentina	0-6	W	13
9	Fiorentina - AS Roma	5-1	W	16
10	Genoa CFC - Fiorentina	0-1	W	19
11	Torino FC - Fiorentina	0-1	W	22
12	Fiorentina - Hellas Verona	3-1	W	25
13	Como 1907 - Fiorentina	0-2	W	28
14	Fiorentina - Inter Milan			28
15	Fiorentina - Cagliari Calcio
16	Bologna - Fiorentina
17	Fiorentina - Udinese Calcio
18	Juventus FC - Fiorentina
19	Fiorentina - SSC Napoli
20	AC Monza - Fiorentina
21	Fiorentina - Torino FC
22	Lazio - Fiorentina
23	Fiorentina - Genoa CFC
24	Inter Milan - Fiorentina
25	Fiorentina - Como 1907
26	Hellas Verona - Fiorentina
27	Fiorentina - US Lecce
28	SSC Napoli - Fiorentina
29	Fiorentina - Juventus FC
30	Fiorentina - Atalanta BC
31	AC Milan - Fiorentina
32	Fiorentina - Parma
33	Cagliari Calcio - Fiorentina
34	Fiorentina - FC Empoli
35	AS Roma - Fiorentina
36	Venezia FC - Fiorentina
37	Fiorentina - Bologna
38	Udinese Calcio - Fiorentina

Serie A Point Projection 2024/2025

docs.google.com

This is a thread to follow the projections for top 8 teams to the magical 86 points season. Thread follows the "fuckup" budget, meaning how many games team can draw and lose to still achieve the 86 points level.

Credits to @CafeCordoba @.h. @brehme1989

 

[pier]

	Scenario	16 Budget	Current	Max Pts	Draw	Lose
	#1 (16 pts) (1D 2L)	0D 2L	3W 1D 0L	22
	#2 (16 pts) (4D 0L)	3D 0L	3W 1D 0L	22
	#3 (17 pts) (2D 1L)	1D 1L	3W 1D 0L	22
#	Fixtures	Score	Result		Points
1	Manchester City - Inter	0-0	D		1
2	Inter - Red Star Belgrade	4-0	W		4
3	BSC Young Boys - Inter	0-1	W		7
4	Inter - Arsenal FC	1-0	W		10
5	Inter - RB Leipzig
6	Bayer 04 Leverkusen - Inter
7	AC Sparta Prague - Inter
8	Inter - AS Monaco

UCL 16 Points Budget Projection

UCL Simulation Link (Try your projection)

Serie A Point Projection 2024/2025

docs.google.com

 

[brehme1989]

Can someone torment themselves and do one for the CL League Phase?

16 points could do Top 8 I reckon

 

[pier]

Can someone torment themselves and do one for the CL League Phase?

16 points could do Top 8 I reckon

Updated the second post

 

[CafeCordoba]

Now this gets actually interesting!

 

[Glass box]

Now this gets actually interesting!

But bad interesting

 

[pier]

Updated and looks mobile friendly now.
Roma are not included in the first post due to the 25000 character limit(?), but you can find them on the spreadsheet.

 

[pier]

Updated

 

[pier]

Updated

 

[pier]

Updated

 

[pier]

Updated

 

[pier]

Test post

 

[brehme1989]

 

[CafeCordoba]

Where's the update!

( )

Also, I'd throw Roma out. Then if Lazio or Fiorentina stays with the race for the next month or two, include one of them (or both).

 

[pier]

Blame vasilios
The latest forum software update seems to have broken the tables.

The Google spreadsheets are updated.

 

[Kramerica Industries]

Where's the update!

( )

Also, I'd throw Roma out. Then if Lazio or Fiorentina stays with the race for the next month or two, include one of them (or both).

I'll give this little table excerpt from my notes:

Teams	Point pace (through 12 games)
Napoli (26 points)	82.3
Inter, Atalanta, Fiorentina, Lazio (25 points)	79.2
Juventus (24 points)	76
Milan (added only due to popular demand)	62

Second place is running a few points ahead of last year's 2nd place finish, several teams still in that mix.

Best as I can tell (there may be errors here), this is how the mini-table looks if we focus exclusively on Inter, Juventus, Milan, Lazio, Napoli, Atalanta, Fiorentina + Bologna and Roma (only because some of my notes templates are re-used from last year and I haven't bothered to remove those last two yet):

[EDIT: didn't translate at all from Google Sheets.]

Ok, I'll have to do it this way instead, fuck me...

Team	GP	Points	Average Points Per game
Fiorentina	4	9 (3-0-1)	2.3
Napoli	4	7 (2-1-1)	1.8
Inter	5	8 (2-2-1)	1.6
Juventus	4	6 (1-3-0)	1.5
Atalanta	6	8 (2-2-2)	1.3
Milan	4	4 (1-1-2)	1.0
Lazio	3	1 (0-1-2)	0.3

Sorted by the last category. Fiorentina doing well so far in that respect, albeit the only difficult away trip they've had so far was Bergamo (their lone defeat). Like us, they have a bit of a road-heavy second half of the season - both trips to San Siro, to Napoli, to Lazio, they still have their away game to Juventus at the end of December - they have more questions to answer re: road form and being able to perform than we do. We cleaned up away from home against tough opponents last year, the other clubs still need to find answers although, in Napoli's case, they've already cleared their San Siro and Turin trips for the season and came away with five points so that's a good thing for them.

 

[CafeCordoba]

We got 1W 2D 1L out of home games against Napoli, Juve, Atalanta, Milan. It's quite easy to say we need to grab few wins and probably zero losses in those matchups in the away fixtures.

Lazio and Fiorentina away matches are coming up in December. At least one win is necessary, possibly even two. Napoli doesn't have that many tough matches, they have Lazio home and that's about it (Roma away right after the break is unfortunately and probably a win for them).

And of course we have those two tough away matches are after CL matchups. That's been the theme all season (Milan, Juve, Napoli matches after a CL game). Will be very interesting 1,5 months to settle the winter championship.

 

[pier]

Updated.
- Added Lazio and Fiorentina into projection.
- Added Inter point comparison vs season 2023/2024, 2022/2023, 2021/2022 (All Inzaghi seasons) and its differences ().
- Added stars for "big matches" for current top 6.

 

[pier]

Fun facts.
We have the same points(28) and goal differences(+17) after matchday 13 as in Inzaghi first season.

 

[pier]

Update.
- Juve have used up their draw budget and still haven't lost.
- Milan have used up their lost budget.