Point projections for the 2013/2014 season

[CafeCordoba]

This is a statistics thread for point projection for the season. Here it's projected how Inter would get points for the whole season if the point ratio per games would remain the same as it is currently. Basically the projection changes in every round since more games are played which leads to points / game ratio changes.

To make it a bit more "realistic", I've divided the games of the season to "hard" ones and "normal" ones. Projections are calculated separately for hard ones and normal ones.

Hard games:
Juve
Milan
Napoli
Roma
Lazio
Fiorentina

I know some might disagree with me about the choices. But at this point those teams look strongest.

I will update the projections after every round. So let's get to them now.

Updated: 02/15/2014	Normal	Hard	Total
Total games	26	12	38
Games played	16	8	24
Wins	7	3	10
Draws	8	1	9
Losses	1	4	5
Points	29	10	39
Points / game	1.81	1.25	1.63
Remaining games	10	4	14
Projected points (for games left)	18.13	5.00	23.13
			TOTAL PROJECTION
Projected total points	47.13	15.00	62.13

Hard games:

Team	Home	Away
Juventus	D	L
Milan	W
Napoli		L
Roma	L
Lazio		L
Fiorentina	W	W

Link to Statistics by season -thread: http://forzainterforums.com/showthread.php?3249-Statisics-by-Season-(04-05-Current)&p=195521&viewfull=1#post195521

 

[Mad Biscione]

My favourite thread to check after every game is back :notbad:

 

[CafeCordoba]

Obviously that projection is very high at the moment, since we haven't lost a game yet. Specially that record against "hard" opponents is very good, since those are the games we will take some defeats for sure.

But it looks we won't take such a beating in normal matches like last year, thanks to Mazzarri the real coach.

 

[Mad Biscione]

In the last seasons it took 72, 64, 70 points to get to 3rd place

 

[Devious]

You start making this projections and we start losing points just like last season. I`d say staaph please staaapphhh but there is no use. Let`s hope it turns out to the best this season.

 

[CafeCordoba]

In the last seasons it took 72, 64, 70 points to get to 3rd place

This is one reason I'm interested in following the projection. It is around that 70 points which grants you second place in Serie A. It's been for that for quite some time. Though like you pointed out, it varies a bit around that 70 points. Could it be higher this year if the top 5-6 are better teams overall? Or lower because of that?

 

[CafeCordoba]

Updated.

Horrible home defeat against Roma. Despite that, projection looks really good. Reality is however that Roma is 7 points ahead of us now and they are one of the main rivals for the last CL spot. Their projection is much much better obviously.

 

[Dylan]

Thanks for keeping this up Cafe, really interesting to look. I believe with Mazzarri we can be less complacent with smaller teams and so far we're doing ok with the big guns

 

[interista4]

Thanks for keeping this up Cafe, really interesting to look. I believe with Mazzarri we can be less complacent with smaller teams and so far we're doing ok with the big guns

Sorry? if anything we're doing ok with the small guns, not the big ones (unless I got u wrong). We didn't manage to beat an out of form Juve at home & were thrashed by Roma at our own ground. Sure, we beat Fiorentina but that was without some of thier key players, and also I don't think we were so convincing in that game.

I am a bit worried tbh, we rely too much on our wingbacks and rarely create anything else bar Ricky's miracles. Our game is too predictable & Roma noticed it perfectly, barely any chances vs. them. Sure the son of god was missing, but we can't rely on a single player. Yeah I know that's Mazzarri tactics but let's not forget that he also had Zuniga, Hamsik & Cavani for it.. sadly as it stands now, we don't have half of that quality, yet.

 

[Dylan]

Considering we've faced 3 of the best (note: I didn't say the best 3) sides in the league and only lost 1 of them then I think that's something to be proud of. We've dealt with small teams as we should. Yes we're a bit predictable with our width and relying on a magic moment of luck but it beats last years 100% reliance on magic and opponents mistakes. This is his 2nd or 3rd month in charge and we're making massive improvements. By the time next season starts we'll have a very good base to start working up to a Scudetto challenging side, granted we qualify for CL this year.

 

[CafeCordoba]

Considering we've faced 3 of the best (note: I didn't say the best 3) sides in the league and only lost 1 of them then I think that's something to be proud of. We've dealt with small teams as we should. Yes we're a bit predictable with our width and relying on a magic moment of luck but it beats last years 100% reliance on magic and opponents mistakes. This is his 2nd or 3rd month in charge and we're making massive improvements. By the time next season starts we'll have a very good base to start working up to a Scudetto challenging side, granted we qualify for CL this year.

I agree. 1-1-1 against "hard teams" isn't that bad record. Though it must be said, this is only result-wise notion. Unfortunately I haven't been able to watch most of the matches in this season yet, so I can't comment too much about the performances.

Against small sides it looks also quite good, 3-1-0. Result-wise there's nothing to worry about, performance-wise it can be a different story.

 

[Dylan]

Well it seems to me the main objective this season for Mazzarri is to work on getting our wide players to become a weapon. Hopefully from January onwards and next season we can work on trying to find alternative, reliable methods of attacking. Prefereably through a creative player in the middle of the pitch.

 

[interista4]

Considering we've faced 3 of the best (note: I didn't say the best 3) sides in the league and only lost 1 of them then I think that's something to be proud of. We've dealt with small teams as we should. Yes we're a bit predictable with our width and relying on a magic moment of luck but it beats last years 100% reliance on magic and opponents mistakes. This is his 2nd or 3rd month in charge and we're making massive improvements. By the time next season starts we'll have a very good base to start working up to a Scudetto challenging side, granted we qualify for CL this year.

Bare in mind that they all were home matches, which changes the whole pictrue. If atleast one of them was away then I'd agree, but 4 points out of 9 at home is never a good record, solid at best. Bad would have been 0 points obviously, but it's not good either. And.. yet to face Napoli/Milan.

 

[Dylan]

Good point but I don't think it completely changes the picture. There's a high possibility that Roma are at the best form they'll be all season and now they are out of the way. I don't think it's stupid to suggest their side will not have nearly as much momentum in the away leg whenever that is. Picking 3 points off Fiorentina was massive regardless of home or away and not losing to the champions is nothing to be ashamed of. Even if we had only picked up 3 points I still wouldn't write us off a CL place. Depending on results later on of course, we'll still at worst only be a few points off of a CL spot so I really don't think now is a tme for negativity. Mazzarri has suprised me this season already so it's not out of the question that he can drive us to near maximum points until our December tie with Napoli.

 

[CafeCordoba]

Yeah, truth is that for the next 8 matches, we should grab 18-19 points out of 21. Otherwise the hard matches will become too important for us result-wise and won't perhaps bear that. We need to build our team performance and confidence levels by winning the "normal" matches on a regular basis (random hiccups are always there though). That way we can became that CL team again.

 

[CafeCordoba]

Updated.

Projection took a big hit when we couldn't manage to beat a lesser opponent. We need to start being better in these games for christ sake. It's unforgivable to concede 3 goals in a match, again. That's how it just is. Defence is a fucking mess at the moment.

 

[CafeCordoba]

Updated.

Good victory, though the projection didn't rise that much. I'd like us to get a projection for over 80 points season for the winter break. That allow us some side-steps in the latter part of the season.

Defensive play is still a fucking mess. Individuals are making mistakes and the general team game when defending is at times horrible. Most of the giveaways in any part of the pitch might be dangerous opportunities for the opponent.

 

[CafeCordoba]

Updated.

All just bullshit, bullshit, bullshit. I'm totally frustrated how mediocre this team really is. When we can't consistently score goals in matches, we can't win matches consistently because we keep conceding goals like this. And the defeat wasn't far away either.

No CL next season, unfortunately. For that, we need some heavy reinforcements + collapse of one of Roma and Napoli.

 

[CafeCordoba]

Updated.

Important victory but didn't do much to the projection. No defeats against "not hard" opponents is important and we need to keep it that way. Still the win/draw ratio in those matches is not good enough. That needs to be increased dramatically if we want to even contest for the CL.

 

[Dylan]

I know it's not one of the ''hard'' teams but this win away from home is probably the hardest game we'll play all year outside of the big clubs.