Point projection of the season 2012/2013

[CafeCordoba]

This is a statistics thread for point projection for the season. Here it's projected how Inter would get points for the whole season if the point ratio per games would remain the same as it is currently. Basically the projection changes in every round since more games are played which leads to points / game ratio changes.

To make it a bit more "realistic", I've divided the games of the season to "hard" ones and "normal" ones. Projections are calculated separately for hard ones and normal ones.

Hard games:
Juve
Milan
Napoli
Roma
Lazio
Fiorentina

I know some might disagree with me about the choices. I dropped Udinese out because they don't seem to be what they've been for couple last seasons. On the other hand Lazio and Fiorentina look more strong so they're in.

I will update the projections after every round. So let's get to them now.

Updated: 03/31/2013	Normal	Hard	Total
Total games	26	12	38
Games played	19	9	28
Wins	10	4	14
Draws	3	2	5
Losses	6	4	10
Points	33	14	47
Points / game	1.74	1.40
Remaining games	7	2	9
Projected points (for games left)	12.16	2.80	14.96
			TOTAL PROJECTION
Projected total points	45.16	16.80	61.96

Hard games:

Team	Home	Away
Juventus	L	W
Milan	D	W
Napoli	W
Roma	L	D
Lazio		L
Fiorentina	W	L

Link to Statistics by season -thread: http://forzainterforums.com/showthr...04-05-Current)&p=195521&viewfull=1#post195521

 

[CafeCordoba]

So after the marvellous Juventus away victory, we are in a pace for a ridiculous 93-point season.

Of course I don't believe this pace is going to last and we're going to get some draws also (so far zero draws LOL). But "hard game" point ratio is pretty impressive so far.

 

[Devious]

Interesting. keep it up!

 

[CafeCordoba]

Updated.

We're still in Scudetto pace. Not that I believe winning it, but these stats tell how well we've managed to do in the first third of the season.

 

[.h.]

yeah but we need a Juventus collapse, basically.

 

[CafeCordoba]

Yes we need and I don't see one happening. That's why I said I don't believe Inter winning Scudetto. But so far we are in Scudetto pace, since with 85 points you will win Scudetto. Last time it was won with over 85 points was in 06/07 when we won it thanks to us having no competition whatsoever in the league.

 

[Brussels_Boy]

I'm actually very curious how the match against Napoli will go. So far we beat Juve and Milan but that was away, in which we surprisingly enough are better. It's still a long road ahead before we are nr 1 but with this team we can make it...

 

[.h.]

well, Juve won with 84 last season, and so far are doing a lot better than last year. Current form they'll hit 98 points - realistically, unless they have a serious fuck up, i can see them hitting 88-90

 

[Jimmy Page]

It all comes down to how far Juventus goes in the UCL, if they crash out early they are in likelyhood getting their second consuctive scudetto

 

[CafeCordoba]

It all comes down to how far Juventus goes in the UCL, if they crash out early they are in likelyhood getting their second consuctive scudetto

That is true. If they fuck up the group stage, they have the whole second part of the season to concentrate purely on Scudetto race. And with that material, they just can't fail.

 

[interista4]

Nice thread. Obviously it will all be up to the games vs the smaller teams, that's where (if) we would win the scudetto.
The only let down for now is that the refs are helping Juve much harder than last season, and that is the only reason we're 4 points behind.
We must win the upcoming 3 games & be in good shape before Napoli at home, we can't afford to drop anymore points against mid-table teams

 

[thatdude]

That is true. If they fuck up the group stage, they have the whole second part of the season to concentrate purely on Scudetto race. And with that material, they just can't fail.

They will at least make Europa league. How serious they take it? That's another question.

 

[interindo]

I don't think they'll take europa seriously... I think we should take europa seriously, if our players are healthy.. we have too many players to play just in serie A

 

[INTERPERSEMPRE]

13 Dom 18 Nov 2012 15:00 Inter - Cagliari
14 Lun 26 Nov 2012 21:00 Parma - Inter
15 Dom 2 Dic 2012 15:00 Inter - Palermo
16 Dom 9 Dic 2012 20:45 Inter - Napoli
17 Sab 15 Dic 2012 20:45 Lazio - Inter
18 Sab 22 Dic 2012 12:30 Inter - Genoa


Nov 17 Juventus v Lazio
Nov 25 AC Milan v Juventus
Dec 1 Juventus v Torino
Dec 9 Palermo v Juventus
Dec 16 Juventus v Atalanta
Dec 21 Cagliari v Juventus


If you ask me we have easier fixtures than rube . Except for the Lazio-game, we also have the difficult games at home.
Also to mention that rube has games against Chelsea and Shakthar Donetsk in between...

INTER ON TOP BEFORE JANUARY?! Forza!

 

[CafeCordoba]

Updated.

No Scudetto pace anymore. However our winning streak provided us this luxury of being able to lose points and still having a good position in the table and also projection for the season.

 

[CafeCordoba]

Updated.

Doesn't look that great anymore. Poor run of results lately have put us back to just "CL-spot level". We need to turn this fast because soon we won't be even in that level anymore.

 

[Uncommon]

You might as well put every game under 'hard'. There is no easy or normal with Inter.

 

[Cal]

You might as well put every game under 'hard'. There is no easy or normal with Inter.

This.

 

[CafeCordoba]

No. Our poor results are because of us, because of our form, not because opponents are that extra hard to grant them a status "hard".

---------- Post added at 17:58 ---------- Previous post was at 17:55 ----------

Updated.

Back to winning ways. Super important. Now we will have two hard games ahead and I can't project 4,5 points from those matches even if the projection predicts that (yeah, of course we can't get that amount in any way). I'd be super content with 4 points.

 

[CafeCordoba]

Updated.

REALLY important victory against Napoli at home. Lazio away game ahead so we really needed those points. Projection-wise, our "hard match" points per match stat is funnily better than normal game stat. Obviously those stats will start to move towards each other soon, at least I hope so since we have double amount of normal games left.

Overall projection looks really good again. Not Scudetto-level but we clearly in CL-spot area thanks to these last two victories after that miserable period of no wins.